Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Daniel Jones be a top-20 QB?
2. Is Saquon Barkley a must-draft in the first two rounds?
3. Can we view Jashaun Corbin or Matt Breida as a direct handcuff?
4. Will Kenny Golladay return to weekly startability, or even streamability?
5. Can Kadarius Toney be a weekly fantasy contributor?
A combination of bad luck and bad scouting have left the Giants with a pretty bad franchise. And unlike other bad franchises, they're stuck in a sort of no man's land: too much talent costing too much money and not enough execution. According to overthecap.com, only four teams have less cap space, and at least three of them have a lot more to show for it: the Bills, 49ers, Patriots, and Ravens. Fortunately, only four teams are currently marked to have *more* cap space in 2023. So as we consider fantasy outlooks for the Giants, it's important to keep this context in mind. The franchise is playing for 2023 far more than they're playing for 2022.
We begin with Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 draft. In fairness to the team, Kyler Murray went No. 1 overall, and the only other semi-startable QBs worth drafting (much later) were Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew. The Eli Manning era was drawing to a close, Kyle Lauletta was not the answer, they struck gold with Saquon Barkley, and it appeared they might be one "franchise" QB away from pushing for a playoff spot. Instead, Jones is probably playing his last season in New York, and this could be his final shot at a full-time starting gig in the NFL. New head coach Brian Daboll should help make this offense go. The rest is largely up to Jones, who flashed as a rookie despite losing an unconscionable 11 fumbles in 13 games.
I don't usually give up on QBs before they've hit their prime. Sometimes it comes down to the right coach/system with the right combination of on-the-field personnel. Jones is in the Mitch Trubisky camp of a quarterback taken too early, and who's forced to live up to lofty expectations he didn't deserve. It's important to remember that as a rookie, Jones averaged 16.5 fantasy points, putting him a tie for the 16th-most points per game. Who did he tie? Tom Brady. He was ahead of Kirk Cousins and within one-point-per-game of Aaron Rodgers. Was it a fluke? Maybe. But there's a path for Jones to far outperform his QB28 ADP. I'm willing to bet on him at that cheap price.
Much of Jones's ceiling hinges on a healthy Barkley. In fact, we could argue that Barkley is the most uniquely challenging fantasy RB to assess heading into 2022. Not much needs to be said. We all know how elite he used to be, how injuries have derailed his career, and how he hasn't looked quite right the past two years even when "healthy." Can he return to form? His RB13 ADP suggests the market has no idea. Some managers might leap for him in the second round, betting on a series of 14+ point performances, even if he plays only 13 games. Other managers might simply avoid the hassle of drafting someone who could be a game-time decision more often than a weekly top-10 RB.
One thing to consider with Barkley is that the Giants don't have an automatic handcuff. Yes, rookie Jashaun Corbin could be forced to step up, and no doubt he's an intriging get as an RB who's not even in the top 100 ADP RBs. Matt Breida (RB98) could earn some looks. But this team was far more prepared when they had Devontae Booker last year. This year is much more of a Saquon-or-bust situation. They'll use him as much as they need to, because they won't need him next year. Keep in mind, he has 190 receptions on 260 targets in only 44 career starts. Few fantasy RBs can match his floor when he's good to go. The question is whether we'll see his elite ceiling again, and most managers would take a top-12 campaign in a heartbeat.
At receiver, Kenny Golladay was the best overall Giants fantasy WR last year despite finishing 79th. In the past 20 years, only one team (the 2017 Browns) have had a worse "best" fantasy WR. I believe his WR53 ADP is off, and possibly way off. The Giants are stuck with him for at least two more years (they have an out after the 2023 season). He's too talented to be anything less than a top-two receiving option. While Kadarius Toney (WR47) is ranked better, I believe they have comparable ceilings, while the proven Golladay has a higher floor. Toney was a rarely utilized receiver his first three seasons in college before breaking out as a senior--with 21% of his career receptions, 28% of his career receiving yards, and 25% of his career receiving TDs coming in his final three contests. Is he potentially great? Sure. Have we seen enough to know for sure? Definitely not. Toney is a late-blooming prospect with a limited track record. Far more boom-bust than Golladay, and as a result, I'm choosing Golladay.
Elsewhere, Sterling Shepard might not be ready by Week 1, and Darius Slayton might be cut. Rookie Wan'Dale Robinson presumably could be the No. 3 WR. Does that make him a must-draft WR in deeper leagues? Strange enough, I think Saquon's health could impact Robinson more than Shepard's. Robinson profiles as more of a "gadget" player. He could play the role of a passing-down back, or as a situational receiver, or even as an early-down rusher. There's some pop potential if he can qualify as an RB by midseason. But as a generic WR, his path to the top 60 seems slim.
Finally, with Evan Engram gone, perhaps Ricky Seals-Jones can put it all together. Or rookie Daniel Bellinger could carve out a 5-7 point role on 2-3 targets a game. There's not a lot of excitement here unless the Giants once again are ravaged by injuries. I'm anticipating a more top-heavy offense featuring Saquon, Golladay, and presumably Toney. For fantasy purposes, the only other relevant weekly players will hinge on which of the "big three" gets hurt, and for how long.