Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Drew Lock or Geno Smith start more games, and will it matter?
2. Will the backfield be an RBBC, or can Rashaad Penny or Kenneth Walker rise to the top?
3. Can D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain top-28 WRs?
4. Is any other Seahawks WR draftable?
5. Could Noah Fant be a top-10 TE?
The Russell Wilson Era is over, and just like most teams that don't have a readily available replacement for a Hall-of-Fame QB, the Seahawks are in "wait-until-next-offseason" mode. Maybe that's not fair to Drew Lock, the No. 42 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Of course, maybe it's also not fair to Geno Smith, the No. 39 pick in 2013. These two former second-round "busts" have a shot at fantasy relevance if things break perfectly.
The challenge is that we saw how ineffective Lock has been with a fantastic receiving corps in Denver. He'll be a free agent after this season. Presumably the Seahawks will go all in on a QB in 2023, either through free agency or the draft. To keep his starting job all year, Lock probably will need to play the best football of his life, and for fantasy purposes, that still might not be enough to land in the top 20. Meanwhile, Smith looked surprisingly okay while throwing 95 passes in an RB-focused scheme designed to prevent Smith from trying to do too much. Keep in mind, he threw only 101 passes from 2015 to 2020. If he wins the starting job in camp, it probably will say more about Luck than it will about Smith, who would be expected to hand the ball off more than pass it.
Speaking of handoffs, let's start with Chris Carson (neck injury). I don't see how he plays this year. Seattle is a decent bet to finish last in the NFC West. They're in pseudo-rebuilding mode on defense and at QB as they figure out what to do with D.K. Metcalf. Carson might not get medically cleared, and even if he does, where would he fit into an offense that has two younger, starter-ready RBs? Seattle will owe Carson only $1.5 million in 2023, when he'll turn 29 around Week 2. His RB55 ADP makes no sense to me, especially when Marlon Mack (RB56), D'Onta Foreman (RB61), Brian Robinson (RB64), and Zamir White (RB68) offer higher floors and higher ceilings.
Elsewhere in this backfield, Rashaad Penny will look to build on his last season's long-awaited breakout. If you're drafting at the turn (my favorite place to draft) or are in an auction league, he and Kenneth Walker are golden gets at their respective RB33 and RB34 ADPs. This offseason I researched team-by-team positional performances for the past 20 years and found that teams have had an 82% chance of having at least one top-30 fantasy RB. So when we see two frontrunners for the lead-back role outside the top 30 . . . well, you know what to do. Play the probabilities. Snag Penny and Walker and roll the dice knowing there's a great chance one or both could be streamable throughout the season, and there's a good chance (Exhibit A: Penny's injury history) one will break out as a top-20 option.
At receiver, how should we value Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? We could get selective about it and say, "Well, sometimes they did pretty well when Geno was starting." But let's face it: while Lockett's WR27 ADP is reasonable, Metcalf's WR15 ADP seems a bit insane. Maybe the market is betting on Seattle not re-upping with their young star, and instead unloading him before the trade deadline to a team with a great QB and a need for an instant-impact starting wideout. In the right situation (Packers, anyone?), Metcalf could be a top-10 WR. But betting on the "right situation" when the current one looks far bleaker is . . . well, it's risky. I wouldn't be comfortable drafting Metcalf inside the top 20, and that might be generous.
Are any other WRs worth considering, especially if Metcalf leaves town by November? D'Wayne Eskridge and Bo Melton are intriguing in unique ways. I like that Melton has college backfield experience. If Penny gets hurt, I could see Pete Carroll get creative with Melton as a passing-down option. Even Marquise Goodwin could strike gold one or two weeks. But altogether, we're looking at backup-caliber WRs catching passes thrown by backup-caliber QBs. Fluky success would be an optimal outcome, and we shouldn't draft based on fluke probabilities.
Finally, while I've never been a Noah-Fant true-believer, he's certainly landed in a pretty good spot from an NFL perspective, especially if Lock opens the season as the starter. Fant's biggest obstacle lies with Will Dissly, who was just signed to a three-year, $24 million deal. That's not "nothing" money. While he should outperform Dissly, Fant's ceiling could be capped around the top 10-12, unless Metcalf gets traded or the running game falters. Fant's TE14 ADP is too close to his most realistic ceiling, which is usually a yellow flag for me. There should be plenty of Fant-like options on waivers to stream.