Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jameis Winston be a top-18 QB?
2. Where should Alvin Kamara be drafted?
3. Where should Michael Thomas be drafted?
4. Can Chris Olave be a weekly streamer?
5. Will Jarvis Landry be fantasy relevant?
Let's get right to the point. Last year's Saints somehow finished with a winning record, largely because of their defense, Alvin Kamara, and yes, Jameis Winston. All credit goes to Trevor Siemian for a miraculous fill-in performance after Winston's second-quarter ACL tear in Week 8 against the Bucs. But New Orleans went on to lose five straight without their starting QB, effectively ending what had been a promising season.
Winston's QB22 ADP is moderately insane. Buying into it means buying into his higher-than-normal injury risk (fair point), and/or a recovery schedule that *might* hinder his Week 1 availability (not likely). Last year, Winston threw to arguably the worst receiver corps in the league, yet he still averaged more fantasy points per game in six full starts than Russell Wilson. With a much-improved WR group, I'm buying Winston as a must-draft QB in 14-team leagues and a great final draft pick in 12-team leagues.
Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara is a complete crapshoot. Will he be suspended, and if so, will it be this season or next season? His range of likely outcomes is wider than perhaps any other non-injury-prone (CMC, Saquon) top-30 RB. The good news is that he remains firmly atop the depth chart whenever active. But his RB9 ADP assumes he won't be suspended, and that's too risky for me at the moment. Mark Ingram somehow is a must-draft handcuff despite his RB56 ADP, while the unranked Tony Jones Jr. offers streaming appeal if Kamara is forced to sit.
At wideout, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harty (formerly Harris), and Tre'Quan Smith have shifted from starters to backups. Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave were great gets for a franchise that doesn't have a lot of cap space, but which is good enough to still make a serious postseason push. In a near-perfect world, they can be top-40 WRs. Landry is a nice add-on at his WR51 ADP. I can't envision him finishing much worse, so not much to lose in deeper leagues. And Olave (WR46) is the big wild card, as he could be anywhere from the #1 WR to the #3 WR in Year 1. If he's #1, that will bode well for a passing attack that realistically could produce 4,500+ yards. Olave is the best value pick given his ceiling.
The major question concerns Michael Thomas. How the heck should managers value him? I have no clue. All I know is that his WR24 ADP assumes a near-best-case scenario for a guy who's barely played since 2019. This is a very different aerial attack than the one he last saw in 2020. Currently he's my WR42, two spots behind Olave. Maybe he'll push into the top 35 if he's 100% for Week 1. But the downside is too steep for me to reach for him ahead of lower-ADP WRs like DeVonta Smith, Chase Claypool, and Gabriel Davis.
At tight end, if you believe in Adam Trautman, have at it. Maybe he'll break through. Coming out of college, he sure looked like a future NFL starter. But with Juwan Johnson and possibly even Nick Vannett looming (and Taysom Hill?!), I'm not buying Trautman even at his TE28 ADP. His ceiling is around the top 22-24 as a TD-dependent, No. 6 or No. 7 offensive option.