Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Justin Herbert again be a top-3 QB?
2. Can Isaiah Spiller be a top-35 RB?
3. Could Mike Williams outperform Keenan Allen?
4. Will any other Chargers WRs be streamable?
5. Is Gerald Everett draftable?
The Chargers have had a pretty set group of core players for several years, with the occasional addition to shake things up. Two years ago, Justin Herbert replaced longtime legend Philip Rivers, who rode off to the sunset in Indianapolis. Of course, Herbert inexplicably wasn't named the Week 1 starter that year. It took a fluke injury to Tyrod Taylor to throw Herbert into the fire, and the rookie never looked back.
And the Chargers might have never drafted Herbert if they hadn't lost three games in a row to the division-rival Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos--with all three defeats decided in the final minute. If they'd pulled out just one victory, the QB-needy Panthers would have drafted in front of them, and today we might be talking about the Herbert-CMC-Moore nucleus of an impressive Carolina offense. Or if Miami hadn't taken Tua Tagovailoa one spot ahead of the Chargers, we might be wondering if Tua's "the answer" in L.A.
Instead, Herbert looks like a mainstay Charger, and if he plays 'til he's 40, we shouldn't be shocked if he pushes for some of Tom Brady's seemingly unbreakable records. He's coming off a 5,000+ yard season with 41 total touchdowns, along with 302 rushing yards. Given his abilities, growth potential, and surrounding talent, his QB3 ADP actually seems a little conservative. While it might be hard for managers to justify drafting him ahead of Patrick Mahomes (QB2), I'd feel very comfortable doing it.
In the backfield, the big question is whether the team pulls back on Austin Ekeler's touches. The GM mentioned it in January, and then Ekeler himself hinted at it a couple months later. As strange as it might sound, I'm avoiding Ekeler at his RB2 ADP, which assumes another 250+ touches. His high offensive snap count is a yellow flag (based on my research). Assuming rookie Isaiah Spiller is better than Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree, we should see immediate volume from Spiller. Kelley averaged 9-10 touches per game as a rookie two years ago. That's a realistic target for Spiller, with 12-13 possible if he shows well. I'm actually very high on Spiller, believing his RB46 ADP misses the context of the Chargers' 2022 game plan, which is not only to compete, but to be healthy for the homestretch. Their final four games will be against the Titans, Colts, Rams, and Broncos. It's not hard to envision their entire season coming down to those final weeks, and on the need to keep Ekeler fresh.
At wideout, is this the year Mike Williams overtake the (somewhat) aging Keenan Allen? Quite possibly. I have no strong opinions. Looking forward to hearing yours. They were neck-and-neck last season, with Williams offering more boom-bust production and Allen providing fairly consistent WR2 numbers. Interestingly, Allen's WR10 ADP assumes what we might expect from this perennial near-elite talent, but Williams' WR20 ADP assumes a regression. A part of me is leaning toward Williams as a bargain, but I'm not there yet. Meanwhile, Joshua Palmer is an almost automatic bargain at his WR73 ADP. If the talented Palmer sees even a slight uptick in volume, Allen and Williams could both bust (relatively speaking). In a league where you're drafting 200+ players (most 14+ team leagues), Palmer is a must-draft flier with realistic 50/600/6 upside.
At tight end, Gerald Everett is on his third team in three years. It's a great opportunity for him and a terrific get for the Chargers, who should net career-high production from this former second-rounder. Everett earned career highs last season in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and catch rate. The 28-year-old has a fantastic floor. Unfortunately, he also has a pretty low ceiling. He'll probably be the No. 6 offensive option. His TE21 ADP makes sense. I think TE16 is an optimal ceiling. In other words, I wouldn't draft him in any league, but in two-TE leagues he could be useful, as well as in deep Best Ball leagues.