Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Jalen Hurts be elite?
2. Will Miles Sanders be a top-24 RB?
3. Is A.J. Brown a top-12 WR?
4. Can DeVonta Smith be a top-28 WR?
5. Is Dallas Goedert a top-8 TE?
Last summer, subscribers to my rankings received something new I called "Chaos Players." These players had relatively broad ranges of outcomes that made it difficult to pin down their true value. My inspiration for chaos players was Jalen Hurts. On the one hand, his QB12 ADP seemed appealing, given his extraordinary rushing ability and the arrival of DeVonta Smith (who at the time was ranked on par with Ja'Marr Chase). However, he had only four starts under his belt, and he didn't exactly look like a franchise-elevating QB while completing a measly 52% of his pass attempts. Would he be trusted to throw the ball? Could he keep his starting job all year?
As it turned out, Hurts crushed it, tying Aaron Rodgers as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. For a while, he was a 20+ fantasy-point machine, reeling off seven in a row to start the season. But here's the thing: the Eagles ran the ball 56 more times than they threw it. No other team came close to that mark, as most teams passed it more than they ran it. No top-22 fantasy QB had a worse completion percentage than Hurts. Ah, but who cares, right? Because no QB ran the ball on the ground better. That's where he racked up 44% of his fantasy production. The writing was on the wall last season, when he earned 50% of his points on the ground.
So let's imagine what Hurts could do if he became a better passer in Year 3, with one of the best young wideouts joining the team. He's still only 23 years old. As mixed as he's been as a passer, he's frequently dominated despite barely averaging a touchdown pass per game. Even a slight uptick to a (still-below-average) 1.2 TDs per game could put his baseline at around 350 points, or near-automatic top-six numbers. I love buying him at his QB8 ADP. While regressions are always possible, there's too much in his favor.
In the backfield, in my Premier Fantasy Football League draft last summer, an opponent drafted Miles Sanders with the 56th pick. Sanders had been sitting out there for a while, and for good reasons. On the field, he's fantastic. But Philadelphia inexplicably underutilized him in 2020, and as expected, they underutilized him again in 2021. Ironically, the team became more pass-friendly after Sanders got hurt, and Philly brought in Jordan Howard, who along with Boston Scott combined for 10 rushing TDs -- all of them inside the four-yard line. Sanders finished the season scoreless. The de facto No. 1 back is a stretch to exceed his RB27 ADP. While he should get back in the scoring column (5-7 TDs seem realistic), I can't rationalize investing in him when he realistic ceiling is only a few spots higher.
Among the other RBs, Boston Scott (RB80 ADP) keeps hanging on, though he'll need an injury to Sanders to get back into streaming conversations. The big value play is Kenneth Gainwell (RB49). Some people dismiss him. Admittedly, his ceiling is fairly capped. But we can't ignore his 50 rookie targets. He came into the league as a potential Darren-Sproles-like RB. He was the overall RB41 on a mere 99 touches. Surely he has room to enter the low-to-mid 30s. I'd definitely reach a round early for him in deeper leagues that sometimes require more creativity at the #2 RB slot.
At wideout, wow. A.J. Brown. My initial reaction was, "Poor DeVonta Smith." But then I remembered they're rooting for their team, not fantasy production. So yay Smith and everyone else on that roster. This could be an exciting offense. However . . . because there are usually "howevers" . . . I'm not on board with Brown's WR9 ADP. I trust Mike Evans (WR11) with Tom Brady throwing more than I do Brown with Hurts throwing. I know, I know: I've just said Hurts should be better than expected. But that doesn't mean he can feed two #1-caliber wideouts along with a trusted starting TE in what's still expected to be a run-friendly offense. Smith (WR36 ADP) is by far the better value pick. I'd be shocked if these two didn't finish within 10 spots of each other. Fade Brown. Buy Smith. And don't grow attached to any other WR like Zach Pascal or Quez Watkins (although Watkins could be streamable if Smith or Brown misses time).
Finally, how will Dallas Goedert adjust to playing alongside not one, but two formidable WR playmakers? His TE8 ADP seems pretty safe. I've got him a couple spots lower at the moment. Last year's yardage spike looks like an outlier when you factor in the greater uniformity of his targets, receptions, and TDs. I don't see him improving on last year's yardage with Brown on the field. Instead, he's more likely to finish 12th than he will 8th.