Five Biggest Questions
1. Which QB will start a majority of games, and will it matter?
2. Will Diontae Johnson be a top-10 WR?
3. Can Chase Claypool be no worse than a weekly streamer?
4. Is any other WR draftable?
5. Is Pat Freiermuth a weekly fantasy starter?
To understand how good the Steelers' offense *could* be this season, we have to understand how good they might have been last season, if only they'd had a decent QB. That's no disrespect to Ben Roethlisberger and his Hall-of-Fame career. But let's compared him to two other aged, post-prime QBs: Philip Rivers and Drew Brees from 2020. That year, Ben averaged more fantasy points per game than each of them. Rivers trailed the trio with only 15 points per game. For context, last year Ben averaged only 13.6 points in what was easily his worst campaign since 2006. JuJu Smith-Schuster's injury didn't help. But the additions of Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth only softened his visible decline.
This is important, because Pittsburgh's backfield and receivers should be as good or possibly better than last season's, especially if rookies George Pickens and/or Calvin Austin III step up. It would be hard to envision Mitch Trubisky or even rookie Kenny Pickett (if he wins the starting job) performing worse than Ben. Simply put, both are more physically talented QBs in 2022 than Ben was in 2021. The question, then, is whether we can count on one to start most of this year's games. Currently, Pickett (QB26 ADP) is favored over Trubisky (QB31). Their rankings will probably move more than most teams' QBs in July and August. A full-go Pickett could push for top-16 production, with a shot at cracking the top 14 (Jameis Winston was #14 in points-per-game last season). If Trubisky earns the starting job, he'll be a tentative top-18 option who will need to rack up wins to remain in the top spot.
The backfield is straightforward: Najee Harris or bust. His RB5 ADP is conservative as long as he remains on the field. I'm a bit concerned about his heavy usage as a rookie, though his age (24) makes him a lower risk of regression than older backs. Still, if we count his senior season at Alabama, Harris has 675 touches in his last 30 games. That's a lot by any standard. Unfortunately for fantasy, he has no obvious handcuff. Pittsburgh remains exposed with Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and possibly even Trey Edmunds battling for the #2 job. As of now, none are high-percentage handcuffs. If Harris is forced to miss time, presumably we'd see the team sign a veteran (Devonta Freeman, David Johnson, etc.).
At receiver, Diontae Johnson (WR14 ADP) is a likely bargain who offers better top-8 upside than most preseason non-top-10 WRs. Chase Claypool (WR43) is ridiculously undervalued. When Ben could still throw a deep ball in 2020, Claypool finished as the overall WR22 despite being #3 on the team in targets. He's still an ascending NFL talent and should finish #2 in targets behind Johnson. He's currently in my top 34 with room to reach the top 26 by August. That leaves Pickens (WR70) and Austin (N/A) as nothing-to-lose fliers. Pickens is the higher-upside bet. Neither is guaranteed to be more than the No. 5 offensive option. But both need to be closely monitored this summer, with the understanding that this offense should be better than last year's.
Finally, Pat Freiermuth: the real deal. He and Pickett could eventually gel like Ben and Heath Miller (a 2005 first-round pick, one year after Ben entered the league). Freiermuth checks every important box if you're looking for a top-10 TE, including great hands, the ability to break tackles after the catch, and a proven red-zone threat. The team assuredly trusts him. The biggest question is whether he'll see more work than last year. Yes, Eric Ebron is gone. Freiermuth has the starting job all to himself. He was 17th in TE targets per game last season. Can he be top 12? Presumably. But top 8 seems like a stretch. There's enough growth potential to justify his TE10 ADP. At the same time, there are about 18 other TEs with realistic top-12 upside, and I think Freiermuth's ceiling is somewhere around the top 7-8, assuming no major injuries to the team's "big three" of Harris, Johnson, and Claypool. That makes Freiermuth a solid--but not a weekly difference-making--draft pick at his current price.