Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Trey Lance take over and become a top-16 QB?
2. Is Jimmy Garoppolo draftable in deep leagues?
3. Will Elijah Mitchell once again lead this backfield?
4. Can Brandon Aiyuk be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Are any WRs besides Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel draftable?
Last year I lamented (and yeah, complained) that the 49ers had a better shot at winning a Super Bowl with Trey Lance at QB instea of Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, the Niners knew what they were doing, and they came very close to a return trip, thanks in part to Jimmy G., who frequently did just enough while his exceptional corps of playmakers did the rest. Only three teams threw less than the Niners, and Jimmy's 23-15 TD-turnover ratio was hardly inspiring. He can't run. But he did help lead three fourth-quarter, game-winning drives. So on the field, he still has value, even if we don't often see it in fantasy.
For our purposes, we're simply waiting to see what happens with Garoppolo this offseason. This franchise isn't looking to give him a big payday or a long-term contract. It would take a self-implosion by Lance in camp to maintain the status quo from 2021. Lance's QB ADP is a robust 16, suggesting he'll be the Week 1 starter. If he is, he's a clear buy, especially if it means Garoppolo goes elsewhere. Jimmy, meanwhile, has a QB33 ADP, suggesting he probably won't be more than a midseason injury replacement in San Francisco or elsewhere. That sounds about right.
The backfield remains a cluster, even if it doesn't appear that way. Elijah Mitchell defied universally low expectations to finish as the RB15 in fantasy points per game, just ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. I was high on Tyrion Davis-Price the night they drafted him, and I remain high today. But let's face it: as with the Patriots, no one can say what *will* happen Week 1. We can assume the starting job is Mitchell's to lose, and his RB22 ADP reinforces that. Davis-Price (RB69) is the better value play, and let's not throw in the towel on Trey Sermon (RB67), who last year at this time was considered a potential weekly fantasy starter. Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB82) flopped in his return last year and currently is the odd man out.
At wideout, I can't conceive of Deebo Samuel replicating last year's breakout, especially if the team pulls back on his carries. 43% of his touches came as a rusher, accounting for 84.5 fantasy points. His WR6 ADP seems a bit high, especially with question marks at QB. He didn't play as well with Lance at QB last year, though they'll have time to gel this summer. For now, I'm eyeing WR production outside the top 10, making him at least a small fade. Brandon Aiyuk (WR41) is (I believe) an ascending talent who should be drafted in all leagues at that competitive price. The rest is a crapshoot with rookie Danny Gray, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Malik Turner trying to dethrone Jauan Jennings as the No. 3 WR. Gray probably has the highest ceiling if you're playing in Best Ball.
And can George Kittle stay healthy? Talent has never been the question. Neither has usage (most weeks). But he's missed 13 of the Niners’ last 41 regular-season games (32%) with knee, calf, and foot injuries. His TE4 ADP is both fair and aggressive. In a perfect world, he plays 17 games and finishes in the top 3. But in deep leagues with large benches, he should be paired with no worse than a streamer with solid upside (Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, etc.).