Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Jared Goff be a top-16 QB?
2. Is D'Andre Swift a top-8 RB?
3. Is Amon-Ra St. Brown the real deal?
4. Will D.J. Chark return to greatness, or even goodness?
5. How soon can Jameson Williams make a weekly impact?
Longtime readers know how frequently I've swung and missed on Jared Goff. Beginning in 2019, I've urged folks to believe that he can be a top-14 QB again. Simply put, he hasn't been, and that's putting it kindly. I've been wrong each year. The question heading into 2022 is not whether Goff is as good as his heyday, but rather whether he's as bad has his last two campaigns. Specifically, last season he had eight touchdowns and 10 turnovers through Week 10. It was an utter disaster. Soon after, Amon-Ra St. Brown took off, and some might (correctly?) credit him for helping to propel Goff to a strong finish.
But we also have to consider the incredible rash of injuries that hit the Lions last year. D'Andre Swift missed four games. T.J. Hockenson missed five. Entering the season, two of Goff's top four receivers were Tyrell Williams (out for the season after Week 1) and Quintez Cephus (out for the season after Week 5). Kalif Raymond--who spend years bouncing between the Broncos, Giants, Jets, and Titans--was thrust into the No. 2 WR role.
Goff's QB26 ADP might be right. But for the fourth straight summer, I'm bullish about a rebound. He's surrounded by offensive talent on a team that probably won't win many games on defense. The Goff of late last season, when he averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game in his last four contests, is a very realistic ceiling.
In the backfield, it comes down to largely to Swift's health, and it's also a little more complicated. He was the RB10 in fantasy points per game last year while averaging six targets per game. But he had a huge drop-off near the goal line. His touches inside the five-yard line dropped from 11 in 2020 to six last year. Not surprisingly, he had nine TDs inside the seven-yard line in 2020 compared to only three last year. Swift has elite potential if he's the preferred goal-line back. Otherwise, a healthy Swift should continue to be a top 8-12 option. As for his backups, Jamaal Williams could not build on his huge opening to the season, and I believe his best days are squarely behind him. He'll be a free agent after this season, and we shouldn't be surprised if the Lions find a midseason taker if a playoff-bound team is desperate for RB help. Craig Reynolds looms as an intriguing deep-league sub-handcuff.
At receiver, I'm not on the Amon-Ra St. Brown train yet. His WR25 ADP is flat-out lofty compared to Jameson Williams (WR51) and D.J. Chark (WR56). We can't assess St. Brown's value based on what he did late last season (as incredible as it was), because he was competing for targets with guys like Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and KhaDarel Hodge. Swift was out for most of those games, and was eased back in for the final two. St. Brown is both very good *and* overvalued. I expect him to be the No. 1 to enter the season, and for Williams and/or Chark to push for co-No. 1 or true No. 1 status during the year. Williams has the highest ceiling. Chark has the lowest floor. If you're investing in the second half of the season, I believe Williams is the best bet.
At TE, T.J. Hockenson can be frustrating for fantasy managers. Many want him to be more consistent, better, etc. Well, he's been the TE6 each of the last two years in fantasy points per game. The biggest question is whether he can carve out a consistent offensive role in a far more potent offense. Hock's probably no longer "the guy" some weeks. He's enjoyed 8+ targets in 15 of 35 career starts. Can he keep earning about seven per game? If so, he should be a near lock for top-10 production with another good shot at the top 7. But a slight dip to six targets could push him out of the top 10. That's the precariousness for fantasy TEs who might not be a top-four option in their offense.