Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Mac Jones be a useful streamer?
2. Will Damien Harris be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Will any other RB be at least streamable?
4. Can DeVante Parker be a top-40 WR?
5. Is Hunter Henry a top-14 TE?
Year after year, the Patriots are one of the toughest teams to write about, and this year might be the toughest in memory. A lot of young players who might or might not wind up in Bill Belichick's doghouse, or traded away, or sidelined with injuries. It starts with someone who's at little risk of any of these outcomes, but is still tough to predict. Mac Jones might be one of the best young QBs in the NFL. But we wouldn't know it from last year, as the team went run-heavy. The team threw the league's seventh-fewest passes, and the franchise's second-fewest passes since 2011.
Is this the dawn (or late morning) of a new Patriots era that leans largely on the backfield and the defense? Presumably not. Jones has the talent to take a sizable Year 2 jump. The question is whether this offense opens up. Two key WR additions signal a possibility. For now, though, Jones could realistically be a breakout top 10-12 QB just as easily as he could finish outside the top 20. I'd be a little more bullish about him if the team tradeed Damien Harris before Week 1, removing a reliable workhorse and (perhaps) putting a little more on Jones's plate.
Speaking of Harris, will the Patriots pull a Sony Michel and trade him rather than re-sign him (or let him walk after this season)? If they believe they're a Super Bowl contender, I think they'll keep him. But drafting two more RBs suggests Harris's time in New England might be ending. I'm most intrigued by Pierre Strong Jr. James White is back, and he's also entering his age-30 season. Strong is a potential heir to New England's passing-down backfield role, and Strong also has the chops to play a larger role. If Harris leaves, Strong and Rhamondre Stevenson would be the most compelling fantasy options.
However . . . the verdict is still out on Stevenson. Can he be the next Harris, or is he better suited as a complementary back in this crowded corps? Harris's RB ADP is all the way down at 27, while Stevenson is at 38. I'm actually fading both at those prices. Harris poised to lead this backfield--until/unless he's sent elsewhere. It's all too muddled at the moment, and it might remain this way until mid-August at the earliest.
Jakobi Meyers (WR52) is a fantastic story with a capped ceiling. DeVante Parker (WR58) has had one really good season in an inconsistent career. Rookie Tyquan Thornton (WR121) might or might not have fantasy appeal. Kendrick Bourne (WR75) and Nelson Agholor (WR101) are TD-dependent fillers. My favorite bargain in this group easily is Thornton, and that would be the case even if his ADP were 75. Not that I view him as a must-draft WR. Frankly, in shallow leagues, none of these receivers look like must-draft options. It would take a much heavier passing attack to feed two of these guys. Three might be out of the question. I could envision a scenario where three finish in the top 65, but none in the top 35. So you're rolling the dice if you choose one of them.
At TE, Hunter Henry gave this team what they needed from him last season. Jonnu Smith? Not so much. This summer, the fantasy universe is applying 2021's production to 2022 projections. Not much of a surprise, and I'm not buying it. Henry's TE13 ADP makes no sense, as he'd need to outperform last year's TE14 performance (in points per game) in a more crowded receiving corps, and with Smith likely to gain ground. Yes, I'm pretty big on Smith (TE42 ADP). While lacking Henry's ceiling, his 28-294-1 receiving line last year was an anomaly. Expect top-28 production that helps pull Henry outside the top 18.