Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kirk Cousins a top-14 QB?
2. Is Alexander Mattison a top-3 RB handcuff?
3. Will Adam Thielen be a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Can K.J. Osborn become streamable?
5. Is Irv Smith Jr. a must-draft TE?
Market bias is real. Some players get the benefit of the doubt. Others get buried year after year. Kirk Cousins is in the latter camp. He's outperformed his QB ADP in five of the last six seasons. Last year his ADP was 18 despite never finishing worse than 15th as a regular NFL starter (and in every other season, finishing 12th or better). Why doesn't he get more fantasy respect? Maybe because he doesn't have sufficient NFL respect. Rankings aren't always left-brain exercises, and they shouldn't be. But sometimes biases that have nothing to do with player projections influence our thinking. Hey, we're human.
Over the years I've expressed a lot of confusion about Cousins' low market values and have usually been more bullish in my rankings. But this year he's my QB14, which happens to be his ADP. As some of you know, I do rankings independent of ADP so there's no random influence on my thinking. In this case, it happened to work out. I might push Cousins ahead of Aaron Rodgers (who's my QB13--don't judge yet). We'll see what happens these next two months. For now, it's safe to assume Cousins' floor remains quite high (top 16). But with so many great QBs in the top 12, I'd be hard-pressed to rationalize pushing Cousins past, say, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and other back-end QB1s.
At running back, it's the same-old, same-old. Dalvin Cook is elite or near-elite as long as he's healthy. It would be shocking if he played more than 14 games. Etc., etc. On a podcast last year, the host asked me which player I'd want to draft in 2022 more than any other. My answer was Alexander Mattison. Why? Because we can all get top players in the first few rounds. But timing guys like Mattison takes just the right amount of patience and impatience. I draft him every year, usually a round or two early. Every year he seemingly gets me a handful of RB1 performances. Not bad for an 8th/9th rounder.
Cook's ADP is RB6, which seems about right. Mattison's is RB40, which seems off given his unique value in the fantasy space. And an important side note: Mattison will be a free agent after this season, while the Vikings have a soft "out" on Cook's lucrative contract after this season. The Vikings have an important decision to make, likely before the trade deadline. They can't pay Mattison what he's worth and still keep Cook. There's a realistic scenario where Minnesota is not a playoff-caliber team this year, and they decide to sell high on one of their RBs. This makes Mattison's ceiling even higher than usual.
The wideouts are pretty much set, as is usual for the Vikings. Justin Jefferson is projected as a top-3 fantasy WR, because of course. Adam Thielen is an aging and potentially declining talent, and he's also the beneficiary of one of my favorite 2022 stats that I dug up as part of this summer's Fantasy Draft Kit: Since joining the NFL two years ago, Jefferson has five receptions and four TDs on 17 targets (29%) inside the 10-yard line. By comparison, Thielen is 19 for 21 (90%) with 16 TDs these past two years inside the 10. Is that not incredible? I remember mentioning in a Facebook post or Tweet last year after Thielen got hurt that there was now a vacuum inside the red zone But I didn't appreciate just how big that vacuum was until a couple months ago. Oh, and K.J. Osborn (WR81 ADP) is needlessly undervalued. I'm not saying he's streaming material. But he's a proven fantasy asset if Jefferson or Thielen sits. That makes him draftable in deep leagues.
Finally, Irv Smith Jr. (TE16 ADP) is one of my favorite undervalued tight ends. There's nothing bold about this take, because apparently a lot of people dig Smith. His ADP could climb into the top 13-14 by August. He's trendy. That always makes me a little cautious. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of many examples of trendy fantasy players who didn't stop trending, even when their projections far exceeded realistic expectations. I'm very comfortable calling Smith a must-draft TE. And like Cousins, I think there's a ceiling (maybe top 7-8) that he'll be hard-pressed to push past. As a result, I wouldn't over-invest in Smith, because top 8-10 TEs are generally streamable, not weekly starters.