Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Ryan Tannehill be a useful streamer?
2. Can Derrick Henry continue to be elite?
3. Is Robert Woods a safe top-35 WR?
4. Can Treylon Burks be a top-40 WR?
5. Will Austin Hooper rebound as a top-16 TE?
The last eight months couldn't have gone much worse for Ryan Tannehill's career, particularly when we consider he was the overall QB7 in 2020 (remember those days?). But Julio Jones struggled with weakened play and injuries, A.J. Brown dealt with his own injuries, Derrick Henry was knocked out midseason, and perhaps adjusting to a new offensive coordinator didn't help. Then the Titans drafted Malik Willis as Tannehill's potential 2022 replacement. A lot of smart people are saying Tannehill's job is safe. A notable reporter told me the other day that "Willis ain't ready."
Two things to consider as we value Tannehill. First few rookie QBs are "ready" in June. Second, expectations matter. Tennessee was the AFC's 1 seed last year. It was a remarkable feat for a team that faced more obstacles in two months than many face in a season. Regardless, the Titans have high expectations heading into 2022. Unfortunately, their schedule through Week 13 is brutal, including non-divisional games against the Bills, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Eagles (in Philadelphia, where assuredly A.J. Brown will rack up 180 yards and two touchdowns). And that doesn't include two matchups against the Colts, as well as two later games against the Chargers and Cowboys.
This team has to play some nearly flawless football to finish 10-7. They're longshots to make the playoffs in my opinion. What happens if they're 6-7 heading into mid-December, and Tannehill's playing like he did for much of last year? How much pressure will there be to give Willis a shot? At the moment, Tannehill's QB23 ADP makes sense. The team still owes him a lot of money. Maybe he'll surprise and earn some top-12 performances, allowing the team to ease Willis's development. But when the season's over, I'd be shocked if Tannehill (a) still has the job, and/or (b) finishes in the top 18.
Meanwhile, a few times each year I'll write something like "I stake my meaningless fantasy reputation on . . ." This isn't like Beau Bridges' Matt Cushman character assuring Jerry Maguire that his "word is stronger than oak." (Because of course it wasn't.) It's generally a huge zig when the fantasy universe zags, where the zig is highly probable, often based on historical trends that cannot be ignored. Either we embrace the high probability of the zig, or we play it safe with a group-think zag.
On the eve of Week 1 last year, I shared this warning: "350+ touch RBs average a 23% fantasy regression the next year. And since snap counts started getting tracked in the NFL in 2012, 350+ touch RBs who've been on the field for 700+ snaps have averaged a 44% fantasy regression the next year. It's hard to ignore those numbers. Yet most experts have. None of them place him lower than 13th. I have him at 15th. In fact, 158 of 167 (95%) rank him in the top 10." Whether through worsening play or a major injury or both, Henry was a fade in every draft.
We know what happened. Some called it a fluke injury. I call it reality. At some point years ago, Major League Baseball teams discovered that they couldn't keep asking pitchers to throw 120 times in a game. The human body isn't built to do that over and over again. The same is true for RBs. I believe someday the NFL will realize they can't keep overworking their running backs. Through eight games, Henry had 219 carries. He was on pace to obliterate Larry Johnson's 15-year record, and he was coming off an NFL-high 378-carry season . . . which followed another 300+ carry season.
Henry is now in a somewhat similar position that Christian McCaffrey was in last year. He's had plenty of time to recover. But will he be the same dominant back? And unlike CMC, Henry will turn 29 before the season's over. Among rostered players, he's #4 on the all-time active carries list, behind only Melvin Gordon Ezekiel Elliott, and Mark Ingram. Ingram is well past his prime, and Zeke might be on the verge (if he hasn't passed it already). Gordon's regression realistically could take shape this year. Henry's time is coming. As a football fan, I hope he has at least 4-5 great years remaining. But that's not rational thinking, and in fantasy, we have to think more rationally than our opponents. Henry is too risky a bet at his RB4 ADP, especially if the Titans' schedule dooms them by Thanksgiving, and the team opts not to run him into the ground ahead of the 2023 season.
At wideout, Robert Woods has been one of the most consistently "very good" fantasy receivers of the past decade, at least on a per-game basis. Assuming he's 100% by Week 1, he should smash his WR39 ADP. He was top-20 in fantsay points per game last year despite playing alongside Cooper Kupp. That speaks volumes. There's a little more strain on rookie Treylon Burks (WR41 ADP), who's facing lofty expectations as A.J. Brown's pseudo replacement. I'd actually be comfortable drafting both WRs based on their eighth/ninth round values, just in case Burks breaks out. Each guy is coming off an ACL tear. This is a case where a WR hedge makes sense, mostly because Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR120) is a longshot to make waves in this top-heavy WR corps.
Finally, I really like Austin Hooper. Some of you might recall I (wrongly) liked him last preseason, and that I also pushed him as a top-14 TE in 2018 when his ADP was TE26 (he finished as the #6 TE). So yeah, Hooper's been top-of-mind for years. On the Browns, in hindsight he never really had a chance. But in Tennessee--just as we saw in Atlanta--he should be utilized regularly enough to become a key secondary target for Tannehill. Hooper has the talent to thrive. His current TE24 ADP assumes the worst. I'll stake my irrelevant fantasy reputation on Hooper finishing in the top 16, and I wouldn't be surprised if he cracked the top 12.