As we near the halfway point of "32 Teams in 32 Days," a heads-up that the Fantasy Football Draft Kit I've been developing with PFN will be out next week. If you want to pre-register for it, sign up here: https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/. We have an incredible team of graphic designers, web developers, editors, and videographers collaborating on this massive kit.
On the content side, in the past 6-7 weeks I've written more than 100,000 words of analysis on more than 300 players. There are "chaos" players (wide variance of likely outcomes) and contrarian predictions. There are charts and accompanying predictive analyses. There are what I call "three-dimensional rankings," which present multiple versions of positional rankings based on each player's realistic optimal ceiling, realistic worst-case floor, and more traditional rankings for all you traditional managers. As always, these rankings will be updated continually throughout the summer, highlighting bargains and busts based on ADP.
If you've subscribed to my rankings over the years and want to download everything (well, almost everything) I've assessed about 2022 fantasy projections, feel free to pre-register--or ping me if you have questions. And now, a few words about the Panthers . . .
1. Who will be the lead QB, and will it matter?
2. Will Christian McCaffrey be durable enough to play most games?
3. Is D.J. Moore a top-20 WR?
4. Will Robbie Anderson and/or Terrace Marshall be a streamer?
5. Is any TE draftable?
Remember when Sam Darnold looked good last season? It actually wasn't just "good." He looked terrific. Then Christian McCaffrey got hurt, and he never looked the same. Maybe defenses figured him out. Or maybe he never recovered after his three-pick performance in Week 5 made the Panthers 3-2 instead of 4-1. It was probably a combination of all three, although for my money, CMC's injury was the backbreaker. These days, Darnold's career as a starter is hanging by a thread. Somehow, he's only 25 years old. But the former #3 overall draft pick has thrown 3+ TDs in only three of 49 starts. Third-round rookie Matt Corral looms. Candidly, a healthy CMC could buy Darnold some time. In two-QB leagues, his QB35 ADP is conservative. For now, he's merely a perpetual reclamation project who could be pulled at a moment's notice. Carolina would be foolish not to give Corral some starts.
As for CMC, yes, I haven't forgotten the conventional wisdom of two years ago, when the fantasy universe believed his 400+ touches in 2019 were irrelevant heading into 2020. On this page, I unveiled new research quantifying the probability that CMC would regress by (I think it was at the time) at least 30%. There was a belief that CMC was "built differently" and that he could withstand the punishment. Similar arguments were made about Derrick Henry last summer.
But number don't lie, and they tell compelling stories. McCaffrey somehow has an RB3 ADP despite missing 23 of the Panthers' last 33 games. The team has dangled him this offseason in trade talks. Not surprisingly, there were no takers. Let's face it: CMC is an incredible football player, and age-wise, he's still in his prime. So yes, he's done it once, and he could do it again. He could be the #1 fantasy RB. But his floor remains painfully low. I'd be shocked if he missed less than four games. The team easily could shut him down in December, assuming they're out of playoff contention and have no need to continue trotting him out.
So I'm fading CMC with the understanding he could still dominate, and with an even clearer understanding that his downside is tremendous. Even a small downturn in usage could push him outside the top 8. As long as he's playing, his floor shouldn't drop below 10-12. But "as long as he's playing" is the key. If you want to draft him, make sure you snag D'Onta Foreman (RB65) at least a couple rounds early. If you have space, snag Chuba Hubbard (RB60) too. But my money's on Foreman to earn several 12+ touch starts and some top-30 weeks.
At wideout, D.J. Moore somehow was the WR18 last year. Sure enough, his ADP at the moment is...yes, WR18. Anchoring one of the league's worst receiving corps, he has a fantastic floor. I'm often wary of overpaying for receivers coming off huge-target seasons (Moore had 163 last year). And interestingly, he averaged 8.3 targets per game in CMC's six complete contests, and 10.3 targets in the other 11 games. But Moore is an ascending talent with a muted TD track record (never more than four in a season). There's some pop potential that should offset any moderate target dip.
Elsewhere, Robbie (formerly "Robby") Anderson might or might not want to retire, and he's coming off arguably his worst NFL season. For context, when Moore was targeted, QBs averaged a dismal 72.0 passer rating, which happened to be 1.7 points higher than in 2020. But when throwing to Anderson, QBs averaged an unbelievable 50.5 passer rating--44.6 points lower than in 2020. Honestly, I've never seen that big of a drop-off for a full-time starter. Anderson's WR74 ADP suggests the market has given up on him. Interestingly, Terrace Marshall Jr.'s WR ADP is 123. I strongly believe one of these two will crack the top 55. Anderson will carry a hefty price tag heading into 2023, so the Panthers can't easily phase him out. But Marshall is a 22-year-old former second-round draft pick with plenty of upside. Both should remain on fantasy radars all summer.
Finally, aside from five glorious Greg Olsen campaigns, the Panthers haven't had any other top-12 TEs in the last 20 years. Will this be the year a non-Olsen TE rises? Probably not. Neither Tommy Tremble nor Ian Thomas have ADPs in the top 40. I'm still unclear why Carolina drafted Tremble in the third round last year with so much RB and WR talent on the board (Michael Carter, Amon-Ra St. Brown, etc.). Tremble had a grand total of 35 college receptions and fits in better as a blocking specialist. For a team with only two established playmakers, they needed more. It's unlikely that Tremble or Thomas will finish inside the top 35.
On the content side, in the past 6-7 weeks I've written more than 100,000 words of analysis on more than 300 players. There are "chaos" players (wide variance of likely outcomes) and contrarian predictions. There are charts and accompanying predictive analyses. There are what I call "three-dimensional rankings," which present multiple versions of positional rankings based on each player's realistic optimal ceiling, realistic worst-case floor, and more traditional rankings for all you traditional managers. As always, these rankings will be updated continually throughout the summer, highlighting bargains and busts based on ADP.
If you've subscribed to my rankings over the years and want to download everything (well, almost everything) I've assessed about 2022 fantasy projections, feel free to pre-register--or ping me if you have questions. And now, a few words about the Panthers . . .
Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will be the lead QB, and will it matter?
2. Will Christian McCaffrey be durable enough to play most games?
3. Is D.J. Moore a top-20 WR?
4. Will Robbie Anderson and/or Terrace Marshall be a streamer?
5. Is any TE draftable?
Remember when Sam Darnold looked good last season? It actually wasn't just "good." He looked terrific. Then Christian McCaffrey got hurt, and he never looked the same. Maybe defenses figured him out. Or maybe he never recovered after his three-pick performance in Week 5 made the Panthers 3-2 instead of 4-1. It was probably a combination of all three, although for my money, CMC's injury was the backbreaker. These days, Darnold's career as a starter is hanging by a thread. Somehow, he's only 25 years old. But the former #3 overall draft pick has thrown 3+ TDs in only three of 49 starts. Third-round rookie Matt Corral looms. Candidly, a healthy CMC could buy Darnold some time. In two-QB leagues, his QB35 ADP is conservative. For now, he's merely a perpetual reclamation project who could be pulled at a moment's notice. Carolina would be foolish not to give Corral some starts.
As for CMC, yes, I haven't forgotten the conventional wisdom of two years ago, when the fantasy universe believed his 400+ touches in 2019 were irrelevant heading into 2020. On this page, I unveiled new research quantifying the probability that CMC would regress by (I think it was at the time) at least 30%. There was a belief that CMC was "built differently" and that he could withstand the punishment. Similar arguments were made about Derrick Henry last summer.
But number don't lie, and they tell compelling stories. McCaffrey somehow has an RB3 ADP despite missing 23 of the Panthers' last 33 games. The team has dangled him this offseason in trade talks. Not surprisingly, there were no takers. Let's face it: CMC is an incredible football player, and age-wise, he's still in his prime. So yes, he's done it once, and he could do it again. He could be the #1 fantasy RB. But his floor remains painfully low. I'd be shocked if he missed less than four games. The team easily could shut him down in December, assuming they're out of playoff contention and have no need to continue trotting him out.
So I'm fading CMC with the understanding he could still dominate, and with an even clearer understanding that his downside is tremendous. Even a small downturn in usage could push him outside the top 8. As long as he's playing, his floor shouldn't drop below 10-12. But "as long as he's playing" is the key. If you want to draft him, make sure you snag D'Onta Foreman (RB65) at least a couple rounds early. If you have space, snag Chuba Hubbard (RB60) too. But my money's on Foreman to earn several 12+ touch starts and some top-30 weeks.
At wideout, D.J. Moore somehow was the WR18 last year. Sure enough, his ADP at the moment is...yes, WR18. Anchoring one of the league's worst receiving corps, he has a fantastic floor. I'm often wary of overpaying for receivers coming off huge-target seasons (Moore had 163 last year). And interestingly, he averaged 8.3 targets per game in CMC's six complete contests, and 10.3 targets in the other 11 games. But Moore is an ascending talent with a muted TD track record (never more than four in a season). There's some pop potential that should offset any moderate target dip.
Elsewhere, Robbie (formerly "Robby") Anderson might or might not want to retire, and he's coming off arguably his worst NFL season. For context, when Moore was targeted, QBs averaged a dismal 72.0 passer rating, which happened to be 1.7 points higher than in 2020. But when throwing to Anderson, QBs averaged an unbelievable 50.5 passer rating--44.6 points lower than in 2020. Honestly, I've never seen that big of a drop-off for a full-time starter. Anderson's WR74 ADP suggests the market has given up on him. Interestingly, Terrace Marshall Jr.'s WR ADP is 123. I strongly believe one of these two will crack the top 55. Anderson will carry a hefty price tag heading into 2023, so the Panthers can't easily phase him out. But Marshall is a 22-year-old former second-round draft pick with plenty of upside. Both should remain on fantasy radars all summer.
Finally, aside from five glorious Greg Olsen campaigns, the Panthers haven't had any other top-12 TEs in the last 20 years. Will this be the year a non-Olsen TE rises? Probably not. Neither Tommy Tremble nor Ian Thomas have ADPs in the top 40. I'm still unclear why Carolina drafted Tremble in the third round last year with so much RB and WR talent on the board (Michael Carter, Amon-Ra St. Brown, etc.). Tremble had a grand total of 35 college receptions and fits in better as a blocking specialist. For a team with only two established playmakers, they needed more. It's unlikely that Tremble or Thomas will finish inside the top 35.