Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Derek Carr a top-12 QB?
2. Will Josh Jacobs be a top-24 RB?
3. Are both Kenyan Drake and Zamir White must-draft RBs?
4. Is Hunter Renfrow a top-28 WR?
5. Can Darren Waller return to top-5 form?
Last year was a "what-could-have-been" season for Derek Carr in the aftermath of the Henry Ruggs tragedy and Darren Waller's injuries. Carr threw for two TDs in six of his first seven contests. He had multiple TDs only twice the rest of the season. In total, he had 11 TDs and 14 turnovers after Week 7. And yet, he finished as the overall QB14. Shockingly (or maybe not shockingly), his preseason ADP is QB14. Of course, that's not the whole story: he was 19th in QB points per game among regular starters--slightly behind guys like Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones.
The last time Carr was better than 19th in QB points per game was in 2016, when he had two 1,000-yard receivers (Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree) and a very capable backfield that ranked sixth in NFL rushing yards. Fast-foward to 2022, it's hard not to see Carr return to 2016 form. His WRs and RBs arguably are better than what he had in 2016, and his TE is . . . well, many miles better than Clive Walford. Carr's ADP appears to be closer to his floor than even his safe median. I'm buying him at 14, even in a league chock full of top-14-caliber QBs.
The Raiders' RBs are fascinating from a fantasy perspective. Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake presumably won't be back in 2023. The team invested in the high-upside, low-floor Zamir White at the draft. White's torn his ACL in both knees and might be a longshot for a long-term career, but has a solid chance of taking over the 1A role by midseason if he shows well. Jacobs hasn't gotten enough credit for being a dependable workhorse. No, he's not the elite or near-elite back some believed he could be. But his 54 receptions last year (fifth most in the league) demonstrated an elevatad three-down ability that could make him a bargain in a top-heavy backfield. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, this is the opposite of top-heavy. Jacobs will have a tough time living up to his RB20 ADP. Drake is a nothing-to-lose lineup filler at his RB57 ADP. And White (RB72) is the clear value play.
At wideout, Davante Adams surprised his longtime NFL quarterback by choosing to play with his former college quarterback. Davante Adams has been elite for years. His WR4 ADP assumes little, if any, regression playing with Carr. I actually see more regression than that. Adams is accustomed to being the focal point of the passing game. He's been top-3 in team target share for four straight years. He's been top-3 in red-zone WR targets for five straight years. Since he entered his prime years, Adams has never played with a corps as talented as this one. Waller led all TEs in red-zone targets in 2020; Renfrow was #5 among WRs last year; etc.
Something has to give. Adams is incredible. Yes, he has unique chemistry with Carr. But that won't be enough to carry him to a top-4 fantasy performance. In fact, I wouldn't bank on him finishing in the top 8. Expect greatness somewhere in the D.J. Moore / Mike Evans range (top 10-20). Meanwhile, Renfrow is priced about right at his WR27 ADP. And Demarcus Robinson could pick up some scraps as a top-55 option, though I'm not entirely counting out Keelan Cole yet; I actually prefer Cole's upside if those two are forced to share the field.
Finally, will Darren Waller rebound? He's too talented to ignore, and he'll also turn 30 in September with only two full NFL seasons under his belt. He opened last season with a whopping 19 targets, and he fell under seven only once in his first nine games. But these 2022 Raiders are built differently. Adams' arrival already has subdued Renfrow's market value. I don't think it's impacted Waller's enough. The veteran TE is much more likely to finish in the top 8-10 than in the top 4-6.