Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Carson Wentz a top-18 QB?
2. Who will be the No. 1 RB, and will he be a weekly starter?
3. Can Terry McLaurin be a top-20 WR?
4. Can Jahan Dotson be no worse than a weekly streamer?
5. Will Logan Thomas be a top-12 TE?
A surprisingly big question confronting fantasy managers is whether Carson Wentz will be as good as his best recent performances, as bad as his worst, or somewhere in between. Anything less than his best probably will keep him outside the top 12. However, a strong case could be made that Washington gives him more upside than Indianapolis did, particularly in the latter half of last season. Because through Week 9, Wentz had a sterling 2,198/17/3 passing line. It's easy to forget that Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 47 receptions for 480 yards in those first nine weeks. In the final eight weeks they had only 33 receptions for 190 yards.
Not a huge difference, but symptomatic of a larger issue. The Colts went away from the pass, opting to over-work Taylor in their quest to sneak into the playoffs. It didn't work. Wentz was largely blamed, and surely he deserved some of it. But in Washington, he'll have three pass-catching backs at his disposal, a #1 WR on par with Michael Pittman, and better secondary receivers. No Taylor, no problem, at least from a fantasy perspective. This team needs Wentz more than the Colts did, and I believe it will show on fantasy scoreboards. Wentz is a bargain at his QB24 ADP. While Sam Howell looms, Wentz should comfortably outperform expectations as long as he's on the field.
The backfield is a hot mess fantasy-wise--in other words, confusing and intriguing (the two usually go together). Antonio Gibson's RB18 ADP seems overly ambitious. If he were the sure-fire bellcow, and/or if he were a notably durable 1A back, I could see it. But Gibson never profiled as a workhorse out of college (he had 33 career carries). His best hope is to lead the backfield in receptions while playing 13+ games. That's a pretty narrow path with J.D. McKissic expected to work on passing downs, and with rookie Brian Robinson coming off a 306-touch college campaign (including 35 receptions). McKissic (RB44) has the lowest ceiling, but should outperform his price. And Robinson (RB64) is the nothing-to-lose value play. If Gibson misses time, Robinson could be a spot-starting steal. This backfield could remain wide open until late August, and possibly beyond.
At receiver, Terry McLaurin might or might not remain with Washington after this season. For a team that's still (likely) not a playoff team, his contract status could have a profound impact on his and his WR corps' fantasy values. For now, his WR16 ADP seems ambitious. Last year he had an arguably worse QB, but was the unquestioned #1 receiver. This year Jahan Dotson (WR64 ADP) is the much better value play. I'm not saying McLaurin *can't* be a top-20 WR, but I do believe his ceiling is around the top 14-16. That makes him an unwise investment at his current price. Presumably his ADP will come down in the coming weeks, while Dotson's will move closer to the top 45.
Can Curtis Samuel stay healthy and be productive? His WR79 ADP suggests not. As good as he looked in Carolina before Washington signed him, Samuel is a longshot to be even the #5 offensive asset. I'm curious whether Dyami Brown and Cam Sims could cut into Samuel's relatively low ceiling. At the moment, Samuel is undraftable except in Best Ball.
And Logan Thomas . . . How do we assess the fantasy value of an aging, late-blooming TE coming off an injury-plagued campaign? Can he be near-elite again? Here's the thing: He averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game last year in five full contests. In his 2020 breakout campaign, he averaged 11.0 points. His range of outcomes hinges almost entirely on health. Given his TE18 ADP, you can afford to take a flyer on him and hope he stays on the field. If he doesn't, you can find a streamer later. But if he does, you should have a top-10 TE with your final pick, which isn't that bad.