Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Kyler Murray return to elite form?
2. Will James Conner be a top-12 RB?
3. When DeAndre Hopkins returns, will he outproduce Marquise Brown?
4. Can Rondale Moore take a significant Year 2 leap?
5. Is Zach Ertz a sure-fire top-12 TE?
After Week 1 last season in the Premier Fantasy Football League, I made a blockbuster trade with the wonderful Aaron Weaver. He won that trade for a couple of reasons, one of which involved Kyler Murray. That summer, I believed Murray had record-breaking elite potential. He was like the 2020 version of Dak Prescott pre-injury: a seemingly unstoppable QB with an array of high-end receiving talent. It also helped that Murray was coming off a season when he rushed 133 times for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. "Surely he can do that again, or even build on it," I thought. And even if he hadn't gotten hurt midseason, I would have been wrong.
Something happened to that team after A.J. Green didn't turn around in the end zone against the Packers. The undefeated Cardinals became the highly vulnerable Cardinals. And of course, DeAndre Hopkins' season-ending injury didn't help. The interesting thing is, on a per-game basis, Murray enjoyed career-highs in passing yards, passing TDs, and yards per attempt. His completion percentage was several points above his career average. His interception rate was at a career low. The biggest difference? Plummeting usage and effectiveness on the ground, due in part to scheme and also to James Conner's prowess near the goal line. Murray's current QB5 ADP reflects that he's still a great QB. If his rushing numbers jump even close to 2020 levels, he could be a top-2 QB.
On the ground, beware of James Conner. Although his RB16 ADP is pleasantly conservative, his range of outcomes is sizable. He had an almost unreplicable 15 rushing TDs last year (including eight from the one-yard line), accounting for 42% of his fantasy points. He's missed 14 games in his last four seasons. At 27 years old, he's not necessarily post-prime. But historically he's regressed each season after topping 200 carries. Essentially, I don't believe he's built to be a long-term bell cow, which is why Pittsburgh didn't stick with him. Arizona struck gold last year. Conner is a very risky top-14 RB. In other words, he could be better than his ADP. But I believe he's more likely to disappoint.
The recently signed Darrel Williams (RB54 ADP) is a must-draft in deep leagues, while rookie Keaontay Ingram (RB70) is a name to file away. If Ingram has a strong camp, he could leapfrog Williams as the 1A if Conner misses time. Otherwise, Williams could rule the backfield and be a league winner if the timing is right.
At wideout, DeAndre Hopkins (WR35) has been suspended for the first six weeks. Marquise Brown (WR24) should serve as the No. 1 WR for now. After Hopkins returns, all bets are off. However, if Rondale Moore (WR60) takes a big step forward (entirely possible, and I believe in Moore as a future fantasy starter), then clearly that could harm Brown's and Hopkins' values. There's a market expectation that both of these veterans will be fantasy starters as long as they're starting. But if Moore becomes a strong No. 3, we have to wonder if the relatively streaky Brown will have his usual series of quiet outings. Last year Brown struggled down the stretch, with only one 11+ point outing in his final six games. While some of that was QB-related, Brown was often outplayed by Rashod Bateman. I'm comfortable with Brown as a top-24 WR in the first six weeks, but not after Hopkins returns.
Elsewhere, Green (WR88) is a deep flyer. Not much more can be said. Presumably he'll be tasked with stepping up in Hopkins' absence. He might have one good performance. That's the best I can say, assuming Moore makes the leap I'm expecting.
Finally, Zach Ertz revitalized his flailing career after Arizona traded for him. His TE10 ADP seems a little ambitious. Like Brown, he could meet expectations in the first six weeks. But rookie Trey McBride looms. I'm a big believer in McBride's potential as soon as this season. Watch how McBride does in camp. Right now, I'd bet that if he earns even one target in Week 1, he'll be set up to split this TE corps by December.