Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Tua Tagovailoa break through as a weekly fantasy starter?
2. Will any Miami RB be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Can Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both be top-14 WRs?
4. Could Cedrick Wilson be a top-40 WR?
5. Will Mike Gesicki be a top-10 TE?
Two seasons ago, the Dolphins' five most-targeted WRs were DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Isaiah Ford, Lynn Bowden, and Preston Williams. And yet, many people (me included) questioned the team's decision to draft Tua Tagovailoa in light of Ryan Fitzpatrick's arguably better play. So much has obviously changed since then, but one thing is clear: Tua needs to show significant progress this year for Miami to trust him as their franchise QB. He now has two elite or near-elite WRs in their prime or pre-prime, as well as the highest-upside No. 3 WR Miami's had in years. He has a potentially still-ascending franchise-caliber TE. And he has a backfield chock full of experienced RBs. This offense is built to thrive.
So there won't be any doubts after this season. Either Tua's the answer, or he isn't. Last year he was the QB23 in fantasy points per game, tied with Taylor Heinicke and Jared Goff. He currently has a QB17 ADP, which is a lot like saying, "He could be great, but let's not get ahead of ourselves." Yes, we can envision Tua improving. The question is "how much?" Tyreek Hill was fifth in the AFC in yards-after-catch last year. Jaylen Waddle was 11th. Cedrick Wilson probably would have been in the NFC's top 10 if he'd started every game (instead of earning only 61 targets). Tua doesn't actually need to be that much better to be the QB17. This entire offense has higher upside because it's packed with more playmakers. I'd definitely buy Tua at his current price, knowing that a Year 3 developmental jump could realistically push him into the top 8.
Miami's backfield last season arguably was the second-worst in the league, behind Houston's. So the team set out to (finally) improve it. Chase Edmonds might have been enough, though his durability issues make him riskier than your typical No. 1 or 1A back. Raheem Mostert is a fantastic story and deserves another shot. But the 30-year-old has even more injury concerns than Edmonds does. And then there's the most recent signing, Sony Michel, who could prevent any RB from cracking the top 30. (And there's also Myles Gaskin, but I'd be shocked if he started anywhere higher than No. 3 on the depth chart).
This seems like a wait-and-see RB corps, doesn't it? Edmonds has the best market value (RB34 ADP), followed by Mostert (RB46), Michel (RB56), and Gaskin (RB63). Mostert appears to be the clear fade at his price, while Edmonds is a lukewarm buy. Michel is the biggest potential bargain as a goal-line threat and capable spot starter. In deep leagues, we can afford to stash Michel in case the often-injured Edmonds and/or Mostert get hurt. In shallower leagues, there's no guarantee Edmonds averages more than 12-13 touches a game, though he was a bell cow in college. It all depends whether Miami goes all in on Edmonds. With three other starter-ready RBs in the wings, that seems highly unlikely.
At wideout, what needs to be said? Hill (WR7 ADP) and Waddle (WR13) form one of the league's best WR tandems. If we knew Tua could be a top-10 QB, perhaps they'd be the best tandem. As it stands, I'm just as high on Waddle as I am Hill. We know what Hill can do when Patrick Mahomes throws to him, and we know what Waddle can do when Tua throws to him. Once the Fins committed to Waddle as their No. 1 in Week 6 last year, he averaged 17.4 fantasy points the rest of the way. For context, Hill averaged 17.4 all last season. I don't see Hill as "better," and not just because of this interesting stat. Waddle is just as capable of being near-elite. I'd fade Hill a bit at his price, and lean into Waddle a bit at his reduced price.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned Cedrick Wilson could be a weekly streamer. A lot of it depends on how effective the running game will be, how much Tua will develop, and whether Tua targets Mike Gesicki more. His current WR93 ADP seems ludicrous. He's a top-50 asset who might disappoint, but not by much. And if Hill or Waddle misses time, Wilson could be a reliable streamer. In deeper leagues, he's a must-draft WR.
Finally, what will become of Gesicki? Last year he was the overall TE8 as the fourth-most targeted tight end. It's almost inconceivable that he could remain a top-5 targeted tight end, or even possibly top 8. Subtraction by addition. I was fairly bullish about him before the team added Hill and Wilson. Now I see his TE12 ADP as wishful. Yes, he could be a top 10-12 TE. But if you're drafting a TE12 hoping he'll be top 10-12, you're not optimizing your draft capital. There are plenty of cheaper investments (like the mostly forgotten Irv Smith) with comparable upside.