Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Justin Fields a top-16 QB?
2. Can David Montgomery remain a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Darnell Mooney a top-24 WR?
4. Will Byron Pringle or Velus Jones Jr. be a top-45 WR?
5. Can Cole Kmet be a top-14 TE?
One of my favorite stats I uncovered doing research last summer was that the Bears were the only current NFL franchise that never had a QB throw for 4,000 yards, and also the only franchise that never had a QB throw 30 TD passes. It was one of those head-scratchers where I had to do the research over again to make sure it was accurate. And I believed last summer that Justin Fields would be the first Bear to eventually eclipse both marks--not necessarily in 2021, but at some point. As we now know, Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles combined for only 3,635 yards and 16 TD passes. Not good.
But there are reasons to be hopeful: presumably Fields will be able to start games without looking over his shoulder, waiting to get pulled . . . at least this year. A new head coach and some much-needed WR help (but will it be enough?) should lead to plenty of top-16 fantasy weeks for Fields. The big question is whether he can sustain it. At this time of year (pre-July), I usually find a lot more bargains than busts. A lot of guys seem to be undervalued, maybe because there's so much optimism about what they *could* do. With Fields, optimism is easy. Last year, Allen Robinson wasn't his healthy self, Cole Kmet was still raw, and the Bears had no reliable options behind Darnell Mooney. Yet in his final five starts, Fields had four performances with 16.9+ points, including 25.3 points against the Niners. 17 points per game last season would have made him the QB14 in points per game. He's a buy at his current price, and his ceiling remains monumental.
In the backfield, can David Montgomery remain "the guy"? He was the RB15 in points per game while missing four contests. In his place, Khalil Herbert looked ready. If you're investing in an RB starter, you don't want the backup to be "ready." I've been pushing Montgomery on this page for several years, including as a screaming bargain two summers ago when his RB ADP was 27 (and he ended up as the RB4). But this summer has a different feel. He'll be a free agent after this season. Chicago is a minor longshot to reach the playoffs. Across many advanced metrics, Montgomery ran worse last year, and I'm not convinced he's materially better than Herbert. That makes him incredibly risky at his RB15 ADP. I'm not sure why Herbert has an RB57 ADP. But keep that disparity in your back pocket.
And rookie Trestan Ebner has a path to becoming the next Tarik Cohen (man, poor Tarik Cohen). Much depends on how this backfield shakes out, and whether Ebner earns a passing-down role. Certainly not an upside play. But we've seen plenty of 30-40 reception RBs garner sporadic streaming value for RB-needy managers.
At wideout, I was not on the Darnell Mooney train all last season and paid the price. Will I learn my lesson? Probably not this year. His WR26 ADP is close to where he finished in 2021. Makes sense. But Mooney thrived in ways that make him an undependable weekly fantasy starter heading into 2022. In addition to the aforementioned Robinson struggles, Mooney was No. 11 in WR targets. That doesn't seem replicable this year. He also had the second-worst catch rate of any top-35 fantasy WR, in part because he had a whopping nine drops. He had drop problems in college, too. Yes, he's a big-play receiver. He was also made the de facto No. 1 WR on a team that lacked an adequate supporting cast. I'm fading him this summer. Please call me out this season if I'm wrong.
Elsewhere, Byron Pringle was a little-to-lose offseason addition. But his legal troubles could lead to a suspension, so stay tuned on that. Rookie Velus Jones Jr. might or might not be a weekly NFL starter. He's one of those rare 25-year-old third-round picks. Everything comes down to how he plays in camp. A starting Jones obviously would be intriguing given his WR93 ADP.
Finally, how much do I love Cole Kmet? More than I did last summer, and as some of you (none of you?) recall, last summer he was one of my favorite preseason TE bargains. That didn't go well, though in fairness he was 12th among WRs in receptions and receiving yards. The problem? He was the only top-30 fantasy WR with zero touchdowns. That's not a Kmet problem so much as it is a statistical oddity. Kmet had six scores on 43 catches in his final year at Notre Dame. His target share should remain relatively high. And unlike last year, when four of his five least-targeted games came in the first five weeks, he should be a mainstay contributor beginning Week 1. I'm happy to see his TE ADP at 15, and I also believe he's a better bet to finish in the top 13. In other words, he's a fairly safe buy as a likely top-three Bears receiver.