Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Davis Mills be a top-16 QB?
2. Who will be the lead RB, and will it matter?
3. Can Brandin Cooks replicate last year's dominant campaign?
4. Will Nico Collins carve out fantasy-relevant role?
5. Can John Metchie III contribute starting Week 1?
I've been writing these rundowns each summer for years as a way to reintroduce ourselves to the players many of us followed a lot more closely before last season ended (hats off to you if you've been paying close attention all offseason), and also to introduce us to rookies with some degree of breakout potential. As most of your know, these aren't intended to be comprehensive player reports, and by August some will be very outdated. But right now, before training camp kicks off in July, this helps us set the stage. Who are the 300-or-so players we should be tracking? What might they realistically do in 2022, and how should that factor into their fantasy values? We're establishing boundaries for likely fantasy outcomes, so that later this summer we can hone in with more precision.
Starting off with the Texans, all eyes (or at least some eyes) are on Davis Mills. Gotta admit, I had very low hopes for him when the Texans drafted him in the third round last season. It's hard enough for a franchise QB to spend a rookie season playing on a team going nowhere (just ask Trevor Lawrence). It's even harder when that QB's future standing with the club hinges on performing well. Mills seems destined to fail on a team that was destined to fail.
And for a while, it sure looked that way. He had six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first six starts. But he hit his stride down the stretch, closing the season with eight TDs and two picks. He garnered 206 yards on the ground, and if he can build on that across a 17-game season, we could see how Mills could take another steps forward. Can he be streamable? These columns aren't about giving definitive answers, because there are no definitive answers, especially this early. But Mills will be surrounded with more playmakers than he had last year, and that's a good start.
In the backfield, Marlon Mack's career is finally back on track, or so it seems. I'm not convinced that he's the answer in Houston, despite his current standing atop the depth chart. Mack has proven to be highly injury prone, and he also benefited in 2019 running behind an elite Colts offensive line. That year, his yards-per-carry, yards-after-contact, and broken-tackle rate were all worse than those of backups Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams. Of course Mack (RB55 ADP) could surprise, but someone like Rachaad White (RB58) or even Zamir White (RB69) arguably offer more upside at cheaper prices.
Meanwhile, Rex Burkhead is on his last leg, and last year's semi-fantasy relevance seemed more flukish than anything else. The more intriguing non-Mack backfield option is rookie Dameon Pierce. I found some interesting data on him while developing his profile for the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit: 11 of his 13 rushing scores in his final collegiate campaign came from inside the seven-yard line, and nine of those TDs were from three yards or less. Historically, Mack has been a major goal-line guy. If Pierce takes on a larger share of that work, he could definitely become Houston's top fantasy RB.
At wideout, is Brandin Cooks for real? Of course. Can he dominate again? Absolutely. The Texans didn't materially upgrade their receiving corps. Yes, John Metchie III was a solid addition. But Cooks is in line to lead this group again, and if we can assume Mills will improve, Cooks should remain on weekly-fantasy-starter radars. As for Metchie, the rookie's recovering from an ACL tear. If he can play in at least one preseason game in August, he should be on track to start Week 1. But this is a critical period for rookies, and Metchie is a long-term investment. If he's not ready, there's no point rushing him out there. That makes him a better later-round flyer than a middle-round snag. And it also means Nico Collins could have an opportunity to push for top-45 production. He's a 2021 third-round pick, though he frequently looked like the No. 5 WR last year despite having a wide-open shot at making an impact. Big-leap potential is there. Does he have the talent to seize it?
Finally, the Texans last had a top-14 fantasy TE 10 years ago. It will probably be another two years at least before they end the streak. Brevin Jordan flashed as a 21-year-old rookie last year. But can we imagine him becoming a 50-500-5 TE in year #2? That seems like a stretch. It's Jordan's job to lose, and he'll probably start the year as a low-volume, TD-dependent streamer. His best hope is that Metchie and Collins aren't ready for prime time.