Tomorrow we'll get back into Week 18 discussions with two Saturday games scheduled. For today, continuing this week's theme, a quick rundown of this season's biggest overperforming and underperforming WRs.
For the underperformers, Allen Robinson leads the back, at least from my perspective. I snagged him with the 26th overall pick in the Premier Fantasy Football League. Paired with Alvin Kamara and Keenan Allen--and with Mark Andrews following late in round 4--I thought I was in pretty shape to start the draft. Instead, as we all know, he's been essentially unstartable all season. He has yet to hit 11+ fantasy points in any game. For context, as last season's WR9, he hit 11+ points 12 times.
Could we have seen this coming? Honestly, I'm not sure how we could have. Maybe a small regression could be expected. But last year he dominated catching passes thrown by Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. This year, Andy Dalton and Justin Fields seemed to be no worse than "just as good," and of course their upsides--particularly Fields'--seemed higher. And we can't just blame it on Darnell Mooney. Mooney's surely been more involved this year, but not by much. And the team lost Anthony Miller's 76 targets, while Jimmy Graham (also 76 targets last year) has taken a huge step back. This is simply an awful passing attack. Wherever Robinson winds up next season, he'll probably be undervalued.
There are so many other receivers to highlight: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Robby Anderson, Laviska Shenault, and so on. But the player I'll highlight is Kenny Golladay. It's not just injuries (he's played in a respectable 13 games). It's been a rudderless collapse--a complete disassociation with common sense. The team handed Golladay a $72 million contract, but had no plan on how to use him. Evan Engram is averaging more fantasy points per game, and Engram is the TE23. It boggles the mind, and it will be fascinating to see whether Golladay is even a top-50 WR next summer.
As for overperformers, no list would be complete without Cooper Kupp, who's on the verge of breaking Davante Adams' per-game WR fantasy points record for a season (which Adams set last season). Coming off a WR26 campaign, Kupp had a WR18 ADP this summer, which admittedly made sense to me. "OK, Matthew Stafford should give this offense a boost, and Kupp will be one of the beneficiaries." But I kept thinking Robert Woods would go toe-to-toe with Kupp. After all, Woods was a top 11-14 WR each of the previous three years. But none of that mattered. Stafford's chemistry with Kupp was evident at the get-go, and Woods' season-ending injury sealed the deal. Never underestimate QB-WR chemistry.
There are, of course, so many other incredible WR overperformers this season: Deebo Samuel Michael Pittman, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hunter Renfroe, and Jaylen Waddle, among many others. But the one I want to highlight is Ja'Marr Chase. About a month ago on PFN's fantasy podcast, the discussion shifted to the Bengals. One of my analysts pointed out that Tee Higgins was Cincy's #1 receiver. I challenged him: Why not Ja'Marr Chase?
At the time, Chase had been sputtering for 4-5 games, while Higgins was on a roll. We know what's happened since. The point is clear: You put a guy with Chase's talent into an ascending offense, and good things will happen. This summer, Higgins' WR ADP was five spots better than Chase's. On my rankings, Chase was six points better than Higgins. Granted, I came nowhere close to Chase's eventual production, so I got that completely wrong.
But it was clearly very possible to predict that Chase would score the most Bengal WR fantasy points. Even when Higgins appeared to be the new #1 in November, we couldn't take a static approach to future fantasy production. Those who dismissed Chase after a midseason slump failed to grasp the flow of fantasy peaks and valleys. The best players generally enjoy higher peaks and higher valleys. It took Chase one game to prove he belonged. It took him three games to prove the hype was warranted. And heading into next season, I think most people will rank Chase above his Cincy WR teammates.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
For the underperformers, Allen Robinson leads the back, at least from my perspective. I snagged him with the 26th overall pick in the Premier Fantasy Football League. Paired with Alvin Kamara and Keenan Allen--and with Mark Andrews following late in round 4--I thought I was in pretty shape to start the draft. Instead, as we all know, he's been essentially unstartable all season. He has yet to hit 11+ fantasy points in any game. For context, as last season's WR9, he hit 11+ points 12 times.
Could we have seen this coming? Honestly, I'm not sure how we could have. Maybe a small regression could be expected. But last year he dominated catching passes thrown by Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. This year, Andy Dalton and Justin Fields seemed to be no worse than "just as good," and of course their upsides--particularly Fields'--seemed higher. And we can't just blame it on Darnell Mooney. Mooney's surely been more involved this year, but not by much. And the team lost Anthony Miller's 76 targets, while Jimmy Graham (also 76 targets last year) has taken a huge step back. This is simply an awful passing attack. Wherever Robinson winds up next season, he'll probably be undervalued.
There are so many other receivers to highlight: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Robby Anderson, Laviska Shenault, and so on. But the player I'll highlight is Kenny Golladay. It's not just injuries (he's played in a respectable 13 games). It's been a rudderless collapse--a complete disassociation with common sense. The team handed Golladay a $72 million contract, but had no plan on how to use him. Evan Engram is averaging more fantasy points per game, and Engram is the TE23. It boggles the mind, and it will be fascinating to see whether Golladay is even a top-50 WR next summer.
As for overperformers, no list would be complete without Cooper Kupp, who's on the verge of breaking Davante Adams' per-game WR fantasy points record for a season (which Adams set last season). Coming off a WR26 campaign, Kupp had a WR18 ADP this summer, which admittedly made sense to me. "OK, Matthew Stafford should give this offense a boost, and Kupp will be one of the beneficiaries." But I kept thinking Robert Woods would go toe-to-toe with Kupp. After all, Woods was a top 11-14 WR each of the previous three years. But none of that mattered. Stafford's chemistry with Kupp was evident at the get-go, and Woods' season-ending injury sealed the deal. Never underestimate QB-WR chemistry.
There are, of course, so many other incredible WR overperformers this season: Deebo Samuel Michael Pittman, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hunter Renfroe, and Jaylen Waddle, among many others. But the one I want to highlight is Ja'Marr Chase. About a month ago on PFN's fantasy podcast, the discussion shifted to the Bengals. One of my analysts pointed out that Tee Higgins was Cincy's #1 receiver. I challenged him: Why not Ja'Marr Chase?
At the time, Chase had been sputtering for 4-5 games, while Higgins was on a roll. We know what's happened since. The point is clear: You put a guy with Chase's talent into an ascending offense, and good things will happen. This summer, Higgins' WR ADP was five spots better than Chase's. On my rankings, Chase was six points better than Higgins. Granted, I came nowhere close to Chase's eventual production, so I got that completely wrong.
But it was clearly very possible to predict that Chase would score the most Bengal WR fantasy points. Even when Higgins appeared to be the new #1 in November, we couldn't take a static approach to future fantasy production. Those who dismissed Chase after a midseason slump failed to grasp the flow of fantasy peaks and valleys. The best players generally enjoy higher peaks and higher valleys. It took Chase one game to prove he belonged. It took him three games to prove the hype was warranted. And heading into next season, I think most people will rank Chase above his Cincy WR teammates.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy