We're down to the final day of the regular season. Again, tomorrow will be my final post of the season, and PFN will continue to produce a massive amount of content on the website, podcasts, Twitter, etc. until we pick back up in the spring. If you want 2022 rookie rankings, we'll have 'em early this week. If you want dynasty rankings, they're already on the website. If you want DFS lineup recommendations for every single playoff game--FanDuel and DraftKings--as well as combo games, I'm going to spend all this week developing those for next weekend.
Basically, we're still open. We just won't flood your Facebook alerts with more columns until May. So if there's something you need, you know where to find me/PFN.
For now, a quick look at today's games. Yesterday I went 1-1 on picking the spread. Let's see how it goes in this very hard-to-predict final day, where most teams are playing for nothing except pride (and draft positioning).
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3) -- The Packers have nothing to play for. I get that Aaron Rodgers wants to play. One of my colleagues believes that since he plans to play, everyone else will want to play. I'm not so sure. Whether or not Boomer Esiason's source is telling the truth (that Rodgers has threatened to boycott the Super Bowl if Green Bay gets there), the fact is, Rodgers doesn't have a cult-like grip over his teammates. If I'm Aaron Jones, I'm not risking an ACL tear in a meaningless game. Regardless, I’m expecting Jordan Love and Patrick Taylor to carry this team. Taylor is the more intriguing of the two, and I’ve been pushing him as a Week 18 flyer. The Lions, of course, also have nothing to play for, but for the opposite reason. I’d fire up all the usual guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and . . . well, not sure who else. D’Andre Swift’s usage will be interesting, and Jamaal Williams’ TD dependency is uninspiring.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5) -- The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, but that streak should end on Sunday. Win and they’re into the playoffs. Lose and they still have a decent shot of getting in. But no doubt they’ll go all out for as long as needed to secure the W. Start Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., as usual. Give Carson Wentz a look as a top-16 QB. But if Indy runs JT into the ground, they're setting themselves up for failure next weekend. I'm betting on roughly 14 touches for 80+ total yards and a score. For Jacksonville, there’s nowhere to go but up. I think they’ll put up 17+ points, even if most of those points come in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. No one is a semi-safe fantasy starter. Laquon Treadwell shockingly remains their best hope.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (+7) Surprised New York is the underdog in this one. Not because their offense is anything but dysfunctional, but because their underrated defense should be able to go toe-to-toe with Washington’s underperforming offense. Devontae Booker could see more run because the Giants would be foolish to risk yet another major injury to Saquon Barkley in a meaningless final game. Booker is one of my favorite bargain flyers. For Washington, some combination of Antonio Gibson and/or Jaret Patterson will lead this backfield. Gibson has the higher upside, as we’d expect. Beyond that, I can’t get excited about any WFT receiver in fantasy, and as always, that includes Terry McLaurin.
On a quick side note, I was struck by Twitter buzz yesterday on whether Washington should rent Derek Carr for one season in exchange for a first-round pick. My take, for what it's worth, is that Ryan Tannehill's Miami stats were about the same as Carr's Raiders stats, and Tannehill was traded for a fourth and seventh rounder (with a sixth rounder coming back). I don't see why Washington would pay that much for a middling starting QB on an expiring contract. If you can tell me what I'm missing, I'm all ears. Washington vs. Giants Prediction: Giants 20, Washington 14
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4) -- Who will play, and for how long? My bet is "everyone" and "most of the game." David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, etc. should be fired up given their massive ceilings in this one. And Cole Kmet remains one of the least-appreciated NFL tight ends. I believe he’ll be a top-12 TE next season, courtesy of a few touchdowns (he’s one of only two top-26 fantasy TEs not to score this year).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) -- It was nice for Ben Roethlisberger to win what should be his final home game. But the good feelings end there. Roethlisberger threw for a career-low 2.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 17 and probably won’t do much better, even against Baltimore’s porous pass defense. Najee Harris will also be slowed by the Ravens’ usually stout run D; I don’t think he’ll exceed 13 fantasy points. For Baltimore, Tyler Huntley is a terrific streamer. All the usual Ravens receivers should net double-digit points, but their backfield remains a TD-dependent crapshoot. I actually think Baltimore should be favored by 12+ points in this one.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+10.5) -- Derrick Henry remains out, and Jeremy McNichols has been waived. That makes A.J. Brown and D'Onta Foreman must-starts. And Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks should do good (Mills) and great (Cooks) against a sub-standard Tennessee pass defense. But beware their run defense; the revitalized Rex Burkhead will hit a wall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-5.5) -- The point spread has swung 8.5 points in Cleveland's direction the past few days, with Cincy resting many/most of their starters. For the Browns, Case Keenum is a sneaky top-18 QB with some pop if things break right (depends how much the team opens up its offense). I like the Browns taking out their frustrations in this one. It's been a shockingly disappointing season, though injuries haven't helped.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) -- I’m having a tough time predicting this game script, mostly because it’s impossible to know what Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has in mind. He can’t afford to keep losing players to injuries, but he’s vowed to play his starters. I think Tampa Bay can score 24 points in a half against Carolina, and that should be enough to cover. For the Panthers, a painful season is coming to an end. Ameer Abdullah might be their highest-scoring fantasy option in Week 18, which speaks volumes. DJ Moore hasn’t been reliable in weeks.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+6) -- Preferred the Patriots until yesterday. Now I'm going with Miami in a game that could influence whether this team invests in another quarterback this offseason. I expressed concerns early and often about Tua Tagovailoa last year--that Ryan Fitzpatrick was better for this offense. This year, as bad as Tua has been at times, it's also apparent that he's leading a very one-dimensional offense; their running game is the worst in the league (based on YPC). He has to exceed expectations today, and I think he will. For New England, last week I publicly pushed Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers. This week, not so much. Expect a heavy dose of the Pats' backfield.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons -- The Saints will throw everything they have at the Falcons, knowing a victory combined with a 49ers loss to the Rams will catapult them to the playoffs. Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara are must-starts. Marquez Callaway, one of my favorite undervalued preseason WRs, remains a solid streamer. Meanwhile, Atlanta inexplicably has shied away from throwing to Cordarrelle Patterson their past seven games. Mike Davis keeps trudging along as an RB3/4, while Kyle Pitts has (justifiably) leapfrogged Russell Gage as Matt Ryan’s No. 1 target. And a note on Pitts: Buy low in dynasty. Do whatever you can to snag him. Was on pace for an incredible 88-1,335-3. Then Calvin Ridley stepped away, and defenses locked down on Pitts. If the Falcons retool their passing attack, Pitts will be one of four or five TEs with overall TE1 potential.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-16.5) -- I’m still surprised the Bills defeated the Patriots on the road in Week 16. Assuming both teams win this week, Buffalo and New England will face off again in the first round of the playoffs. Today, we should expect the Bills to win convincingly. The 4-12 Jets have looked better on the field than they look on paper. But their injury toll continues to climb, and it'll be hard to compensate against the best pass defense in more than a decade. All the usual Bills are startable in fantasy.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) -- 17 weeks ago, this game would have mattered more: a battle between two NFC West titans. Instead, the limping Cardinals need a win and a Rams loss to win the division, while Seattle will need a new quarterback if this is Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk. For Seattle, I’ve been advising managers to start Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett for weeks. Haven’t always hit, but their upside makes them worth the risk. For Arizona, expect big things from Kyler Murray and James Conner. Seattle is giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields. And Zach Ertz should rise to the occasion.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) -- If Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy, he’ll start. But it might not matter. I like that the Rams lost to the Niners 31-10 in Week 10. Because payback is a thing, especially when the more talented team is paying it back. And that Week 10 games was their first without Robert Woods and with Odell Beckham Jr. Their offense is clicking again. Meanwhile, it'll be hard to bench Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and possibly even Brandon Aiyuk. But just like I wrote about Minnesota’s fantasy prospects in Green Bay this past Sunday, the same is true for San Francisco. Expect more muted performances than we’re accustomed to seeing from this foursome. The Rams should win by 20+. Not sure why the point spread is so narrow.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders -- Normally, I’m picking the home team in a matchup where the winner makes the playoffs. But these teams are not equal. The Chargers are tangibly better. For starters, they have a +18 point differential. The Raiders: -68. The Chargers also have a better quarterback, running back, and receiving weapons (particularly if Darren Waller sits). I’d start the usual big-time L.A. performers, including Mike Williams as a boom-bust flyer. Of course, Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow need to be fired up in fantasy. Zay Jones was one of my favorite streamers last week and still is this week. If Waller sits, Foster Moreau should get enough love to crack the top 12 TEs. But I don’t believe Las Vegas has the firepower to keep up with a Chargers team that’s lost two games at the last second. Frankly, L.. is good enough to be an AFC title contender; they’ll close the deal tonight.
Good luck today in whatever way(s) you're competing. Play fair. Kick butt. Appreciate you all.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Basically, we're still open. We just won't flood your Facebook alerts with more columns until May. So if there's something you need, you know where to find me/PFN.
For now, a quick look at today's games. Yesterday I went 1-1 on picking the spread. Let's see how it goes in this very hard-to-predict final day, where most teams are playing for nothing except pride (and draft positioning).
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3) -- The Packers have nothing to play for. I get that Aaron Rodgers wants to play. One of my colleagues believes that since he plans to play, everyone else will want to play. I'm not so sure. Whether or not Boomer Esiason's source is telling the truth (that Rodgers has threatened to boycott the Super Bowl if Green Bay gets there), the fact is, Rodgers doesn't have a cult-like grip over his teammates. If I'm Aaron Jones, I'm not risking an ACL tear in a meaningless game. Regardless, I’m expecting Jordan Love and Patrick Taylor to carry this team. Taylor is the more intriguing of the two, and I’ve been pushing him as a Week 18 flyer. The Lions, of course, also have nothing to play for, but for the opposite reason. I’d fire up all the usual guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and . . . well, not sure who else. D’Andre Swift’s usage will be interesting, and Jamaal Williams’ TD dependency is uninspiring.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5) -- The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, but that streak should end on Sunday. Win and they’re into the playoffs. Lose and they still have a decent shot of getting in. But no doubt they’ll go all out for as long as needed to secure the W. Start Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., as usual. Give Carson Wentz a look as a top-16 QB. But if Indy runs JT into the ground, they're setting themselves up for failure next weekend. I'm betting on roughly 14 touches for 80+ total yards and a score. For Jacksonville, there’s nowhere to go but up. I think they’ll put up 17+ points, even if most of those points come in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. No one is a semi-safe fantasy starter. Laquon Treadwell shockingly remains their best hope.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (+7) Surprised New York is the underdog in this one. Not because their offense is anything but dysfunctional, but because their underrated defense should be able to go toe-to-toe with Washington’s underperforming offense. Devontae Booker could see more run because the Giants would be foolish to risk yet another major injury to Saquon Barkley in a meaningless final game. Booker is one of my favorite bargain flyers. For Washington, some combination of Antonio Gibson and/or Jaret Patterson will lead this backfield. Gibson has the higher upside, as we’d expect. Beyond that, I can’t get excited about any WFT receiver in fantasy, and as always, that includes Terry McLaurin.
On a quick side note, I was struck by Twitter buzz yesterday on whether Washington should rent Derek Carr for one season in exchange for a first-round pick. My take, for what it's worth, is that Ryan Tannehill's Miami stats were about the same as Carr's Raiders stats, and Tannehill was traded for a fourth and seventh rounder (with a sixth rounder coming back). I don't see why Washington would pay that much for a middling starting QB on an expiring contract. If you can tell me what I'm missing, I'm all ears. Washington vs. Giants Prediction: Giants 20, Washington 14
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4) -- Who will play, and for how long? My bet is "everyone" and "most of the game." David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, etc. should be fired up given their massive ceilings in this one. And Cole Kmet remains one of the least-appreciated NFL tight ends. I believe he’ll be a top-12 TE next season, courtesy of a few touchdowns (he’s one of only two top-26 fantasy TEs not to score this year).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) -- It was nice for Ben Roethlisberger to win what should be his final home game. But the good feelings end there. Roethlisberger threw for a career-low 2.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 17 and probably won’t do much better, even against Baltimore’s porous pass defense. Najee Harris will also be slowed by the Ravens’ usually stout run D; I don’t think he’ll exceed 13 fantasy points. For Baltimore, Tyler Huntley is a terrific streamer. All the usual Ravens receivers should net double-digit points, but their backfield remains a TD-dependent crapshoot. I actually think Baltimore should be favored by 12+ points in this one.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+10.5) -- Derrick Henry remains out, and Jeremy McNichols has been waived. That makes A.J. Brown and D'Onta Foreman must-starts. And Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks should do good (Mills) and great (Cooks) against a sub-standard Tennessee pass defense. But beware their run defense; the revitalized Rex Burkhead will hit a wall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-5.5) -- The point spread has swung 8.5 points in Cleveland's direction the past few days, with Cincy resting many/most of their starters. For the Browns, Case Keenum is a sneaky top-18 QB with some pop if things break right (depends how much the team opens up its offense). I like the Browns taking out their frustrations in this one. It's been a shockingly disappointing season, though injuries haven't helped.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) -- I’m having a tough time predicting this game script, mostly because it’s impossible to know what Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has in mind. He can’t afford to keep losing players to injuries, but he’s vowed to play his starters. I think Tampa Bay can score 24 points in a half against Carolina, and that should be enough to cover. For the Panthers, a painful season is coming to an end. Ameer Abdullah might be their highest-scoring fantasy option in Week 18, which speaks volumes. DJ Moore hasn’t been reliable in weeks.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+6) -- Preferred the Patriots until yesterday. Now I'm going with Miami in a game that could influence whether this team invests in another quarterback this offseason. I expressed concerns early and often about Tua Tagovailoa last year--that Ryan Fitzpatrick was better for this offense. This year, as bad as Tua has been at times, it's also apparent that he's leading a very one-dimensional offense; their running game is the worst in the league (based on YPC). He has to exceed expectations today, and I think he will. For New England, last week I publicly pushed Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers. This week, not so much. Expect a heavy dose of the Pats' backfield.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons -- The Saints will throw everything they have at the Falcons, knowing a victory combined with a 49ers loss to the Rams will catapult them to the playoffs. Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara are must-starts. Marquez Callaway, one of my favorite undervalued preseason WRs, remains a solid streamer. Meanwhile, Atlanta inexplicably has shied away from throwing to Cordarrelle Patterson their past seven games. Mike Davis keeps trudging along as an RB3/4, while Kyle Pitts has (justifiably) leapfrogged Russell Gage as Matt Ryan’s No. 1 target. And a note on Pitts: Buy low in dynasty. Do whatever you can to snag him. Was on pace for an incredible 88-1,335-3. Then Calvin Ridley stepped away, and defenses locked down on Pitts. If the Falcons retool their passing attack, Pitts will be one of four or five TEs with overall TE1 potential.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-16.5) -- I’m still surprised the Bills defeated the Patriots on the road in Week 16. Assuming both teams win this week, Buffalo and New England will face off again in the first round of the playoffs. Today, we should expect the Bills to win convincingly. The 4-12 Jets have looked better on the field than they look on paper. But their injury toll continues to climb, and it'll be hard to compensate against the best pass defense in more than a decade. All the usual Bills are startable in fantasy.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) -- 17 weeks ago, this game would have mattered more: a battle between two NFC West titans. Instead, the limping Cardinals need a win and a Rams loss to win the division, while Seattle will need a new quarterback if this is Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk. For Seattle, I’ve been advising managers to start Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett for weeks. Haven’t always hit, but their upside makes them worth the risk. For Arizona, expect big things from Kyler Murray and James Conner. Seattle is giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields. And Zach Ertz should rise to the occasion.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) -- If Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy, he’ll start. But it might not matter. I like that the Rams lost to the Niners 31-10 in Week 10. Because payback is a thing, especially when the more talented team is paying it back. And that Week 10 games was their first without Robert Woods and with Odell Beckham Jr. Their offense is clicking again. Meanwhile, it'll be hard to bench Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and possibly even Brandon Aiyuk. But just like I wrote about Minnesota’s fantasy prospects in Green Bay this past Sunday, the same is true for San Francisco. Expect more muted performances than we’re accustomed to seeing from this foursome. The Rams should win by 20+. Not sure why the point spread is so narrow.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders -- Normally, I’m picking the home team in a matchup where the winner makes the playoffs. But these teams are not equal. The Chargers are tangibly better. For starters, they have a +18 point differential. The Raiders: -68. The Chargers also have a better quarterback, running back, and receiving weapons (particularly if Darren Waller sits). I’d start the usual big-time L.A. performers, including Mike Williams as a boom-bust flyer. Of course, Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow need to be fired up in fantasy. Zay Jones was one of my favorite streamers last week and still is this week. If Waller sits, Foster Moreau should get enough love to crack the top 12 TEs. But I don’t believe Las Vegas has the firepower to keep up with a Chargers team that’s lost two games at the last second. Frankly, L.. is good enough to be an AFC title contender; they’ll close the deal tonight.
Good luck today in whatever way(s) you're competing. Play fair. Kick butt. Appreciate you all.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy