There are three Facebook columns remaining in this NFL season. We'll give you all a break from seeing these pop up in your feed, and then we'll return earlier than every before (May) to start making sense of the 2022 season. Will share more on Monday. But for now, appreciate you all, and we'll still have a ton of content in the coming months on Pro Football Network's website, Twitter, podcasts, etc: DFS lineups throughout the NFL playoffs, dynasty bargains, etc.
Anyway, on to Saturday football. Two huge games today. Starting with the Broncos vs. the Chiefs, I'm taking the Broncos +11. For Denver, there's no great reason to believe their dormant passing game suddenly will go wild. Kanasas City has given up the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. I'm expecting Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to break out of their mini-slumps. The key to victory for them is keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field for as long as possible. If Denver's opening drive is an eight-minute, 75-yard effort that culminates in a one-yard Gordon lunge, it'll be flawless execution. If more than one receiver gets 10 fantasy points, I'll be shocked.
For Kansas City, the last time these two teams met in Week 13, Tedd Bridgewater and Mahomes went toe-to-toe, and not in a good way. It marked Mahomes fifth "bad" game in his previous six starts. Since then, however, he's rattled off four straight impressive performances. Is he rounding back into form at the perfect time? The Broncos are yielding the third-fewest QB fantasy points and eighth-fewest backfield fantasy points. We can't ignore that, especially with Denver playing at home. We have to expect the Chiefs to post 20+ points, because they're the Chiefs. But I like Denver keeping Mahomes under 20 fantasy points, and Derrick Gore is a very risky poacher for Darrel Williams, who might get more rest than usual with Kansas City likely to play again next week (if the Titans win to claim the AFC 1 seed).
In the nightcap, the Cowboys were favored by seven points three days ago. Now it's four. I had them winning by four three days ago. Have to choose sides, right? So let's go with Dallas covering the spread. As of writing this (Friday night), Jordan Howard and Boston Scott remain on the COVID list, while Miles Sanders already has been declared out. Kenneth Gainwell is a terrific cheap DFS play, and certainly has the passing-game chops to crack 10 points. I also like the boom-bust Devonta Smith booming, even if Dallas Goedert returns. Jalen Hurts and Gainwell will play for leverage heading into 2022. They don't need to win to get in, but there are enough motivators to produce some big plays. I'm betting on Hurts, Smith, and Gainwell.
For Dallas, Tony Pollard is out. Does that mean we should trust Zeke Elliott? The Eagles are pretty bad against the run. Still, we haven't seen Dak Prescott and his aerial weapons flex their muscles much in recent weeks. While an NFC 4 seed seems likely, I'm trusting that they'll try to work out some kinks in their offense. What they did against Washington a couple weeks ago was incredible. In their other six most recent games they've racked up 139 points, or 23 per game. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper have been muted most weeks. That has to change if this team is going to make a deep playoff run, and I believe they'll get back on track tonight with 30+ points, mostly through the air.
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Anyway, on to Saturday football. Two huge games today. Starting with the Broncos vs. the Chiefs, I'm taking the Broncos +11. For Denver, there's no great reason to believe their dormant passing game suddenly will go wild. Kanasas City has given up the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. I'm expecting Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to break out of their mini-slumps. The key to victory for them is keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field for as long as possible. If Denver's opening drive is an eight-minute, 75-yard effort that culminates in a one-yard Gordon lunge, it'll be flawless execution. If more than one receiver gets 10 fantasy points, I'll be shocked.
For Kansas City, the last time these two teams met in Week 13, Tedd Bridgewater and Mahomes went toe-to-toe, and not in a good way. It marked Mahomes fifth "bad" game in his previous six starts. Since then, however, he's rattled off four straight impressive performances. Is he rounding back into form at the perfect time? The Broncos are yielding the third-fewest QB fantasy points and eighth-fewest backfield fantasy points. We can't ignore that, especially with Denver playing at home. We have to expect the Chiefs to post 20+ points, because they're the Chiefs. But I like Denver keeping Mahomes under 20 fantasy points, and Derrick Gore is a very risky poacher for Darrel Williams, who might get more rest than usual with Kansas City likely to play again next week (if the Titans win to claim the AFC 1 seed).
In the nightcap, the Cowboys were favored by seven points three days ago. Now it's four. I had them winning by four three days ago. Have to choose sides, right? So let's go with Dallas covering the spread. As of writing this (Friday night), Jordan Howard and Boston Scott remain on the COVID list, while Miles Sanders already has been declared out. Kenneth Gainwell is a terrific cheap DFS play, and certainly has the passing-game chops to crack 10 points. I also like the boom-bust Devonta Smith booming, even if Dallas Goedert returns. Jalen Hurts and Gainwell will play for leverage heading into 2022. They don't need to win to get in, but there are enough motivators to produce some big plays. I'm betting on Hurts, Smith, and Gainwell.
For Dallas, Tony Pollard is out. Does that mean we should trust Zeke Elliott? The Eagles are pretty bad against the run. Still, we haven't seen Dak Prescott and his aerial weapons flex their muscles much in recent weeks. While an NFC 4 seed seems likely, I'm trusting that they'll try to work out some kinks in their offense. What they did against Washington a couple weeks ago was incredible. In their other six most recent games they've racked up 139 points, or 23 per game. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper have been muted most weeks. That has to change if this team is going to make a deep playoff run, and I believe they'll get back on track tonight with 30+ points, mostly through the air.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy