If last night was Ben Roethlisberger's final NFL home game of his career, then how fitting to end it with a victory, and how unfitting to end it with arguably the worst start of his career. His 56.3 QB rating was his lowest in more than five years and his third lowest in more than a decade. Only once has he thrown for less than 4.3 yards per attempt (2.9 in Week 9 of 2018). Yesterday he averaged only 2.7. Pittsburgh had a whopping 77 offensive plays--more than any team in Week 17 or even Week 16--yet Ben could manufacture a net of only 122 yards.
Sp yeah, it's been an incredible career. And we've seen other all-time greats bow out recently. On the Manning Scale, Ben's final season falls somewhere between Peyton and Eli. It's clearly the end.
This matters in fantasy, because if Pittsburgh upgrades at QB next year, Diontae Johnson realistically could be a WR1/2, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster (if he re-signs) could be WR2/3s, and Pat Freiermuth could be a non-TD-dependent TE1. If this seems farfetched, remember that last season those three wideouts were the WR21, WR16, and WR22, respectively. Eric Ebron was the TE14 as the eighth most targeted tight end.
Granted, the Steelers had the fifth fewest rushing attempts last year. But even with Najee Harris, this year they're tied for the fifth fewest. So not much has changed, except QB throwing ability and the offensive line. Assuming both improve next year, the Steelers' receivers probably will be undervalued on draft day.
For the Browns, what a mess. Davis Mills has more 3+ TD games this year (one) than Baker Mayfield does (zero). Longtime readers know my views on Baker going back to the summer of 2019, when he was the expert-consensus QB6. I didn't see it. Maybe he'd develop into a great quarterback. But there seemed to be more swagger than execution, and his rookie-year stats were inflated based on soft matchups. Here's what I wrote on September 19, 2019, referring to his deceptive 2018 campaign:
"The fantasy universe saw a 3,725/27/14 line that, as some folks kept reminding me, was better than Peyton Manning's first year, better than Drew Brees', and so on. But they overlooked the fact that Mayfield's TD/INT line vs. Cincinnati and Atlanta was 10/0. Cincy owned the NFL's worst passing defense, while Atlanta was bottom-5."
I come back to his concept again and again: taking stats as a whole instead of the sum of their parts. Sometimes the whole tells a fairly accurate story of what's to come. Sometimes the parts are more on point. The less we've seen of a player, the more the parts matter. Yeah, Baker's playing hurt. Other QBs are, too. Judging his full body of work, we see someone who's shown middling NFL talent, interspersed with occasional greatness. He's exceeded 17.5 fantasy points only once this season. In his previous two seasons he's had 10 17.5+ fantasy performances and 10 single-digit fantasy performances.
He's still young, and maybe 2022 will be different. For now, the verdict's still out on whether he can be a "very good" NFL/fantasy quarterback.
For final score predictions, the Steelers won 26-14. Were up 19-14 in the final minute, and thought I had it with my 20-14 pick. But Najee Harris's TD run crushed my dreams. Honorable mentions go to Joseph Feldman (23-10), Gary Beardmore (27-17), and Yemi Onibokun (24-17). If it's okay with everyone, I'll take an honorable mention too. And the winner . . . Adam Noslekim, who predicted 24-13. I believe this is Adam's third win of the season. Truly incredible, and I'm looking forward to reading Adam's upcoming book, "Predictions for Winners."
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Sp yeah, it's been an incredible career. And we've seen other all-time greats bow out recently. On the Manning Scale, Ben's final season falls somewhere between Peyton and Eli. It's clearly the end.
This matters in fantasy, because if Pittsburgh upgrades at QB next year, Diontae Johnson realistically could be a WR1/2, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster (if he re-signs) could be WR2/3s, and Pat Freiermuth could be a non-TD-dependent TE1. If this seems farfetched, remember that last season those three wideouts were the WR21, WR16, and WR22, respectively. Eric Ebron was the TE14 as the eighth most targeted tight end.
Granted, the Steelers had the fifth fewest rushing attempts last year. But even with Najee Harris, this year they're tied for the fifth fewest. So not much has changed, except QB throwing ability and the offensive line. Assuming both improve next year, the Steelers' receivers probably will be undervalued on draft day.
For the Browns, what a mess. Davis Mills has more 3+ TD games this year (one) than Baker Mayfield does (zero). Longtime readers know my views on Baker going back to the summer of 2019, when he was the expert-consensus QB6. I didn't see it. Maybe he'd develop into a great quarterback. But there seemed to be more swagger than execution, and his rookie-year stats were inflated based on soft matchups. Here's what I wrote on September 19, 2019, referring to his deceptive 2018 campaign:
"The fantasy universe saw a 3,725/27/14 line that, as some folks kept reminding me, was better than Peyton Manning's first year, better than Drew Brees', and so on. But they overlooked the fact that Mayfield's TD/INT line vs. Cincinnati and Atlanta was 10/0. Cincy owned the NFL's worst passing defense, while Atlanta was bottom-5."
I come back to his concept again and again: taking stats as a whole instead of the sum of their parts. Sometimes the whole tells a fairly accurate story of what's to come. Sometimes the parts are more on point. The less we've seen of a player, the more the parts matter. Yeah, Baker's playing hurt. Other QBs are, too. Judging his full body of work, we see someone who's shown middling NFL talent, interspersed with occasional greatness. He's exceeded 17.5 fantasy points only once this season. In his previous two seasons he's had 10 17.5+ fantasy performances and 10 single-digit fantasy performances.
He's still young, and maybe 2022 will be different. For now, the verdict's still out on whether he can be a "very good" NFL/fantasy quarterback.
For final score predictions, the Steelers won 26-14. Were up 19-14 in the final minute, and thought I had it with my 20-14 pick. But Najee Harris's TD run crushed my dreams. Honorable mentions go to Joseph Feldman (23-10), Gary Beardmore (27-17), and Yemi Onibokun (24-17). If it's okay with everyone, I'll take an honorable mention too. And the winner . . . Adam Noslekim, who predicted 24-13. I believe this is Adam's third win of the season. Truly incredible, and I'm looking forward to reading Adam's upcoming book, "Predictions for Winners."
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy