Happy New Year! With Week 17 kicking off tomorrow, here's a rundown of what I think will be the most likely game script for each Sunday game, fantasy implications, and point-spread picks.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Football Team -- The Eagles are down Miles Sanders and possibly Jordan Howard. If Howard sits, Boston Scott and even Kenneth Gainwell should be fantsay-relevant. If Howard starts, he'll be the best bet as a TD-friendly option against a beatable Washington defense. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will continue to be "Well, I have to start him" players, despite their low floors. And for Washington, Terry McLaurin has exceeded 62 yards only three times all year, which is insane. Antonio Gibson appears doubtful, and Jaret Patterson is no Antonio Gibson. For the second straight week, I like John Bates as an under-the-radar streaming TE.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) -- Expect a nice bounce-back game for the Saints, despite Carolina’s tough defense. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were painfully underutilized Monday night against Miami. I don't think Sean Payton will make the same mistake again. Start Kamara in all leagues and Ingram in deep leagues if you need a TD-dependent RB flyer. The Saints’ defense is no joke but were undermanned Monday due to injuries. This is the same team that shut out the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and I expect them to shut down the Panthers. Perhaps D.J. Moore nets WR3/4 production. But let’s face it: it's hard to get excited about any Panthers in fantasy tomorrow.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) at New York Jets -- I traded for the Bucs D/ST earlier this season with an eye on Weeks 16 and 17. They came through big-time this past weekend against the Panthers, and they should lock down a Jets team missing Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder, as well as their top two tight ends. On offense, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are both questionable. Rob Gronkowski should bounce back in a big way (he often does). On the ground, I pushed Ke’Shawn Vaughn last week as an unconventional streamer, and it paid off. I’m doing it again. For New York, I'm still debating whether to start Michael Carter (high volume, low scoring potential) or A.J. Dillon (the opposite) in my RB2 slot. Welcoming your opinions below.
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Tennessee Titans -- I like Miami capitalizing on Tennessee’s porous pass defense. The Titans’ strength (run defense) is Miami’s weakness. The Dolphins are the worst in the league in yards per carry (3.4). So expect a pass-heavy game scheme featuring (of course) Jaylen Waddle and (presumably) more DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Tua Tagovailoa will be on the fantasy streaming radar. For the Titans, I’m starting A.J. Brown in my championship game, which probably surprises none of you. D’Onta Foreman will be a risky play against a solid Miami defense. The same goes for Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols. But the key here is that I don’t see anyone but Brown making headway in fantasy.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5) -- I love the Patriots playing at home and coming off a loss. I particularly love them against the free-falling Jaguars. In fantasy, Mac Jones is one of my favorite under-the-radar QB streamers, and Hunter Henry is a borderline top-10 TE. Jakobi Meyers, meanwhile, could have his best day of the season. I think Bill Belichick will use this as an opportunity to test some things in the passing game in preparation for the postseason. Regardless, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson (assuming he returns) would be must-starts in a blowout. 40+ points for New England is more likely than not. For Jacksonville, Dare Ogunbowale probably will out-touch Ryquell Armstead with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde out, though it probably won't matter. Trevor Lawrence has one TD in his past eight games. That’s not a typo: one TD. I’m hard-pressed to recommend any Jaguar in fantasy this week.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7) -- This is the point spread assuming Carson Wentz (reserve/COVID list) returns. It has to be. Because I can't envision Sam Ehlinger leading Indy to an 8+ point win, even if Jonathan Taylor carries the load. So if Wentz starts, I'm all in on the Colts. If he doesn't, I'm picking the Raiders to cover whatever point spread oddsmakers throw at us. Regardless, besides Taylor, Michael Pittman and Nyheim Hines are the wild cards. As long as Wentz starts, Pittman is a must-start. If Ehlinger starts, I'd prefer Hines. For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs would be a volume-dependent RB2 against an Indianapolis defense yielding the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields. Hunter Renfrow remains a must-start WR3+, and Zay Jones and Foster Moreau could continue to capitalize in a shorthanded receiving corps. If Darren Waller returns, he’s obviously a TE1.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) -- The Chiefs should get back Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill wasn’t needed in Week 16. Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains questionable. Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman will revert to desperation streamers (because fringe fantasy starters are fringe for a reason). And if CEH sits, I like Darrel Williams as an RB3+, and Derrick Gore as an RB4 for all you deep-leaguers needing 6+ points from any RB you can find. Meanwhile, my Sunday DFS article last weekend on PFN featured Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins. This week will be different. The Chiefs have gotten tougher against opposing quarterbacks these past four weeks, giving up an average of only 13.8 fantasy points per game. The way to beat them is on the ground, where they’re yielding 4.7 yards per carry. I expect the Bengals to try to work the clock through Joe Mixon and a bit of Samaje Perine. Before last week, Burrow had only 6 TDs in his previous six games. So let’s temper our excitement.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6.5) -- Several teams have been ravaged by injuries this year. No team has had it worse on offense than the Giants. It’s been an unmitigated disaster, capped by the fact that prized offseason acquisition Kenny Golladay is the WR80 with the second-lowest catch rate of any top-100 fantasy wideout. I can't justify starting any of them. For the Bears, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet remain solid streamers, though Andy Dalton's presence at QB should put a slight damper on this offense. David Montgomery needs to be in most lineups, especially because of how heavily he’s being targeted in the passing game. I’m begrudgingly taking Chicago to win by a touchdown or more.
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14.5) -- I’m tempted to take the Falcons to cover. But this could easily be 14-0 Bills 10 minutes into the game. Devin Singletary is finally getting the attention he’s long deserved as the most talented Buffalo RB and is a solid RB3/flex option at minimum. Isaiah McKenzie is the wild card, though with Gabriel Davis back, McKenzie's time in the sun is fading. Davis is a terrific flyer, particularly if Cole Beasley sits. Josh Allen realistically could score 30+ fantasy points. And last week I urged PFN readers to finally buy into a rebound for Kyle Pitts, and he came through. But against Buffalo’s stout pass defense, it’s hard to see Atlanta making much headway. Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the best bets for 7+ points. That’s the best I can say. Russell Gage probably will be heavily shadowed; I wouldn’t trust him as a top-30 WR.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) -- The thrill of beating the Chargers last week will be counterbalanced by a blowout loss to the 49ers. Davis Mills has been quite good in recent weeks despite throwing to one of the lowest-tier receiving corps in the league. Brandin Cooks is the only player worth starting, although I think 8-10 points is more realistic than 16-18. For the 49ers, all eyes are on whether Trey Lance starts with Jimmy Garoppolo currently questionable with an injured thumb. All core Niners would be startable in fantasy regardless of who's at QB. Lance has 24-plus-point potential given what we’ve seen so far. He’s a special talent.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-8) -- A revenge game for the Chargers, who inexplicably were roasted by the Texans last weekend while losing to the Broncos four weeks earlier. I’m starting Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen in my championship week. But with Joshua Palmer ascending, I wouldn’t trust Mike Williams if he returns. Also note that yesterday a bunch of Broncos on both sides of the ball were added to the COVID list, giving the Chargers a sizable boost. With Drew Lock under center and backups filling in at key receiving spots, expect better games from Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams than what we saw last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) -- The Rams would be the easier call here. They’ve won four straight, while the Ravens have lost four straight. But I’m not as interested in the past. Baltimore’s run defense is one of the league’s best (yielding only 3.9 yards per carry and 12 rushing scores). I think Sony Michel will have a relatively tough time generating offense on the ground. Cooper Kupp remains a must-start, obviously, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson are certainly streamable as big-play receivers against a beatable Baltimore pass defense. At this point, no one knows if Lamar Jackson will return. Regardless, I’m all in on Baltimore rising to the occasion at home in a must-win game. Their backfield is good enough to (sometimes) move the chains, though I’d caution that Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray remain highly TD-dependent. Tyler Huntley would be a decent 14-18 point QB option. Mark Andrews is an obvious must-start, while Marquise Brown (if he returns) and Rashod Bateman are streamable, even against the Rams’ tough pass defense. One or both of these wideouts should break through, as Baltimore will need to throw to stay in this game.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) -- D’Andre Swift is back. Can we trust him in fantasy? Ugh, what a question. If you don't have a top-16 RB to plug in, then it makes sense. Allegedly he will handle a sizable load. Still, Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds are looming. With Tim Boyle at QB, Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are startable, and that's about it. Meanwhile, I keep betting on Russell Wilson and his two normally near-elite receivers, and I keep missing. Maybe Wilson’s finger still isn’t fully healed. Maybe there’s dissension in the locker room with rumors that Wilson will leave Seattle after this season. Either way, we have to believe Wilson will do enough against Detroit, and that Tyler Lockett and/or DK Metcalf will be a WR3+. Elsewhere, Rashaad Penny proved me wrong last week. I still don’t trust him in fantasy as an RB2+. Gerald Everett once again is a terrific streamer.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-6) -- Heading into Week 13, I packaged Kyler Murray and Alexander Mattison in a blockbuster eight-player trade that brought back Justin Herbert and Nick Chubb. On balance, I’ve been happy with the results. And this week I trust Herbert at home against Denver more than I do Murray in Dallas. Arizona’s passing game hasn’t looked the same since Murray’s return and DeAndre Hopkins’ exit. Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz appear to be the only reliable receivers. If James Conner returns, I’m concerned neither he nor Chase Edmonds will exceed 12 fantasy points--not bad, but not what title contenders need. For Dallas, start all the usual players. Dak Prescott on the road this year has nine TDs and eight interceptions. At home? 21 TDs and two interceptions. The Cardinals are beatable on the ground and through the air. I’m starting CeeDee Lamb with relative confidence. Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz also should fare well. Michael Gallup remains a fringe WR3/4 streamer. Ezekiel Elliott should be a top-20 RB, while Tony Pollard should crack the top 34.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13) -- Before Kirk Cousins was declared out yesterday, this point spread was -6.5 Presumably, Sean Mannion will find it tough to generate offense in 5-degree cold on the road against Green Bay's strong pass defense. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson need to be in fantasy lineups, but I'd be shocked if either exceeds 12 fantasy points. Imagine this team going down 24 points at halftime. At what points do they put in their subs? And K.J. Osborn is a desperation WR3/4 who needs a touchdown. Interestingly, Minnesota’s scored 1 more point than Green Bay this season, but of course that won't matter tomorrow night. For Green Bay, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should once again form a solid 1-2 punch against a Vikings defense yielding 4.7 yards per carry. Jones is a must-start. Dillon is an RB3+. We know what to do with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, though it's hard to know if Rodgers will coast to under 18 points in this game, since he probably won't need to do much heavy lifting.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Football Team -- The Eagles are down Miles Sanders and possibly Jordan Howard. If Howard sits, Boston Scott and even Kenneth Gainwell should be fantsay-relevant. If Howard starts, he'll be the best bet as a TD-friendly option against a beatable Washington defense. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will continue to be "Well, I have to start him" players, despite their low floors. And for Washington, Terry McLaurin has exceeded 62 yards only three times all year, which is insane. Antonio Gibson appears doubtful, and Jaret Patterson is no Antonio Gibson. For the second straight week, I like John Bates as an under-the-radar streaming TE.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) -- Expect a nice bounce-back game for the Saints, despite Carolina’s tough defense. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were painfully underutilized Monday night against Miami. I don't think Sean Payton will make the same mistake again. Start Kamara in all leagues and Ingram in deep leagues if you need a TD-dependent RB flyer. The Saints’ defense is no joke but were undermanned Monday due to injuries. This is the same team that shut out the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and I expect them to shut down the Panthers. Perhaps D.J. Moore nets WR3/4 production. But let’s face it: it's hard to get excited about any Panthers in fantasy tomorrow.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) at New York Jets -- I traded for the Bucs D/ST earlier this season with an eye on Weeks 16 and 17. They came through big-time this past weekend against the Panthers, and they should lock down a Jets team missing Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder, as well as their top two tight ends. On offense, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are both questionable. Rob Gronkowski should bounce back in a big way (he often does). On the ground, I pushed Ke’Shawn Vaughn last week as an unconventional streamer, and it paid off. I’m doing it again. For New York, I'm still debating whether to start Michael Carter (high volume, low scoring potential) or A.J. Dillon (the opposite) in my RB2 slot. Welcoming your opinions below.
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Tennessee Titans -- I like Miami capitalizing on Tennessee’s porous pass defense. The Titans’ strength (run defense) is Miami’s weakness. The Dolphins are the worst in the league in yards per carry (3.4). So expect a pass-heavy game scheme featuring (of course) Jaylen Waddle and (presumably) more DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Tua Tagovailoa will be on the fantasy streaming radar. For the Titans, I’m starting A.J. Brown in my championship game, which probably surprises none of you. D’Onta Foreman will be a risky play against a solid Miami defense. The same goes for Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols. But the key here is that I don’t see anyone but Brown making headway in fantasy.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5) -- I love the Patriots playing at home and coming off a loss. I particularly love them against the free-falling Jaguars. In fantasy, Mac Jones is one of my favorite under-the-radar QB streamers, and Hunter Henry is a borderline top-10 TE. Jakobi Meyers, meanwhile, could have his best day of the season. I think Bill Belichick will use this as an opportunity to test some things in the passing game in preparation for the postseason. Regardless, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson (assuming he returns) would be must-starts in a blowout. 40+ points for New England is more likely than not. For Jacksonville, Dare Ogunbowale probably will out-touch Ryquell Armstead with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde out, though it probably won't matter. Trevor Lawrence has one TD in his past eight games. That’s not a typo: one TD. I’m hard-pressed to recommend any Jaguar in fantasy this week.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7) -- This is the point spread assuming Carson Wentz (reserve/COVID list) returns. It has to be. Because I can't envision Sam Ehlinger leading Indy to an 8+ point win, even if Jonathan Taylor carries the load. So if Wentz starts, I'm all in on the Colts. If he doesn't, I'm picking the Raiders to cover whatever point spread oddsmakers throw at us. Regardless, besides Taylor, Michael Pittman and Nyheim Hines are the wild cards. As long as Wentz starts, Pittman is a must-start. If Ehlinger starts, I'd prefer Hines. For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs would be a volume-dependent RB2 against an Indianapolis defense yielding the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields. Hunter Renfrow remains a must-start WR3+, and Zay Jones and Foster Moreau could continue to capitalize in a shorthanded receiving corps. If Darren Waller returns, he’s obviously a TE1.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) -- The Chiefs should get back Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill wasn’t needed in Week 16. Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains questionable. Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman will revert to desperation streamers (because fringe fantasy starters are fringe for a reason). And if CEH sits, I like Darrel Williams as an RB3+, and Derrick Gore as an RB4 for all you deep-leaguers needing 6+ points from any RB you can find. Meanwhile, my Sunday DFS article last weekend on PFN featured Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins. This week will be different. The Chiefs have gotten tougher against opposing quarterbacks these past four weeks, giving up an average of only 13.8 fantasy points per game. The way to beat them is on the ground, where they’re yielding 4.7 yards per carry. I expect the Bengals to try to work the clock through Joe Mixon and a bit of Samaje Perine. Before last week, Burrow had only 6 TDs in his previous six games. So let’s temper our excitement.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6.5) -- Several teams have been ravaged by injuries this year. No team has had it worse on offense than the Giants. It’s been an unmitigated disaster, capped by the fact that prized offseason acquisition Kenny Golladay is the WR80 with the second-lowest catch rate of any top-100 fantasy wideout. I can't justify starting any of them. For the Bears, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet remain solid streamers, though Andy Dalton's presence at QB should put a slight damper on this offense. David Montgomery needs to be in most lineups, especially because of how heavily he’s being targeted in the passing game. I’m begrudgingly taking Chicago to win by a touchdown or more.
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14.5) -- I’m tempted to take the Falcons to cover. But this could easily be 14-0 Bills 10 minutes into the game. Devin Singletary is finally getting the attention he’s long deserved as the most talented Buffalo RB and is a solid RB3/flex option at minimum. Isaiah McKenzie is the wild card, though with Gabriel Davis back, McKenzie's time in the sun is fading. Davis is a terrific flyer, particularly if Cole Beasley sits. Josh Allen realistically could score 30+ fantasy points. And last week I urged PFN readers to finally buy into a rebound for Kyle Pitts, and he came through. But against Buffalo’s stout pass defense, it’s hard to see Atlanta making much headway. Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the best bets for 7+ points. That’s the best I can say. Russell Gage probably will be heavily shadowed; I wouldn’t trust him as a top-30 WR.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) -- The thrill of beating the Chargers last week will be counterbalanced by a blowout loss to the 49ers. Davis Mills has been quite good in recent weeks despite throwing to one of the lowest-tier receiving corps in the league. Brandin Cooks is the only player worth starting, although I think 8-10 points is more realistic than 16-18. For the 49ers, all eyes are on whether Trey Lance starts with Jimmy Garoppolo currently questionable with an injured thumb. All core Niners would be startable in fantasy regardless of who's at QB. Lance has 24-plus-point potential given what we’ve seen so far. He’s a special talent.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-8) -- A revenge game for the Chargers, who inexplicably were roasted by the Texans last weekend while losing to the Broncos four weeks earlier. I’m starting Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen in my championship week. But with Joshua Palmer ascending, I wouldn’t trust Mike Williams if he returns. Also note that yesterday a bunch of Broncos on both sides of the ball were added to the COVID list, giving the Chargers a sizable boost. With Drew Lock under center and backups filling in at key receiving spots, expect better games from Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams than what we saw last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) -- The Rams would be the easier call here. They’ve won four straight, while the Ravens have lost four straight. But I’m not as interested in the past. Baltimore’s run defense is one of the league’s best (yielding only 3.9 yards per carry and 12 rushing scores). I think Sony Michel will have a relatively tough time generating offense on the ground. Cooper Kupp remains a must-start, obviously, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson are certainly streamable as big-play receivers against a beatable Baltimore pass defense. At this point, no one knows if Lamar Jackson will return. Regardless, I’m all in on Baltimore rising to the occasion at home in a must-win game. Their backfield is good enough to (sometimes) move the chains, though I’d caution that Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray remain highly TD-dependent. Tyler Huntley would be a decent 14-18 point QB option. Mark Andrews is an obvious must-start, while Marquise Brown (if he returns) and Rashod Bateman are streamable, even against the Rams’ tough pass defense. One or both of these wideouts should break through, as Baltimore will need to throw to stay in this game.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) -- D’Andre Swift is back. Can we trust him in fantasy? Ugh, what a question. If you don't have a top-16 RB to plug in, then it makes sense. Allegedly he will handle a sizable load. Still, Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds are looming. With Tim Boyle at QB, Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are startable, and that's about it. Meanwhile, I keep betting on Russell Wilson and his two normally near-elite receivers, and I keep missing. Maybe Wilson’s finger still isn’t fully healed. Maybe there’s dissension in the locker room with rumors that Wilson will leave Seattle after this season. Either way, we have to believe Wilson will do enough against Detroit, and that Tyler Lockett and/or DK Metcalf will be a WR3+. Elsewhere, Rashaad Penny proved me wrong last week. I still don’t trust him in fantasy as an RB2+. Gerald Everett once again is a terrific streamer.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-6) -- Heading into Week 13, I packaged Kyler Murray and Alexander Mattison in a blockbuster eight-player trade that brought back Justin Herbert and Nick Chubb. On balance, I’ve been happy with the results. And this week I trust Herbert at home against Denver more than I do Murray in Dallas. Arizona’s passing game hasn’t looked the same since Murray’s return and DeAndre Hopkins’ exit. Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz appear to be the only reliable receivers. If James Conner returns, I’m concerned neither he nor Chase Edmonds will exceed 12 fantasy points--not bad, but not what title contenders need. For Dallas, start all the usual players. Dak Prescott on the road this year has nine TDs and eight interceptions. At home? 21 TDs and two interceptions. The Cardinals are beatable on the ground and through the air. I’m starting CeeDee Lamb with relative confidence. Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz also should fare well. Michael Gallup remains a fringe WR3/4 streamer. Ezekiel Elliott should be a top-20 RB, while Tony Pollard should crack the top 34.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13) -- Before Kirk Cousins was declared out yesterday, this point spread was -6.5 Presumably, Sean Mannion will find it tough to generate offense in 5-degree cold on the road against Green Bay's strong pass defense. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson need to be in fantasy lineups, but I'd be shocked if either exceeds 12 fantasy points. Imagine this team going down 24 points at halftime. At what points do they put in their subs? And K.J. Osborn is a desperation WR3/4 who needs a touchdown. Interestingly, Minnesota’s scored 1 more point than Green Bay this season, but of course that won't matter tomorrow night. For Green Bay, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should once again form a solid 1-2 punch against a Vikings defense yielding 4.7 yards per carry. Jones is a must-start. Dillon is an RB3+. We know what to do with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, though it's hard to know if Rodgers will coast to under 18 points in this game, since he probably won't need to do much heavy lifting.
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