As we continue through the run-up to Week 18, some thoughts on surprising overperforming and underperforming fantasy players. Yesterday focused on QBs. Today let's look at two big RB booms and two big RB busts. Just as with QBs, there are too many to talk about. So keeping this brief, and welcoming your thoughts as always of RBs you've been shocked about.
Starting with the busts, like yesterday, not talking about injuries. Too easy to fall back on CMC or Saquon Barkley or even RB2s like Chris Carson. Who simply didn't "have it," and what can we learn from it ahead of 2022? I'll start with one the experts actually got right, but I got wrong: Nick Chubb. As some of you might remember, I pushed him as the overall RB2 this summer, anticipating that this would be a very run-friendly offense, and that a lead back averaging 5.2 yards per carry -- with four of his previous seven touchdowns coming from the 1-yard line -- would produce about 1,600 total yards and about 16 touchdowns.
Before he and Kareem Hunt got hurt, the Browns' backfield was on pace to become the most prolific backfield (in terms of carries and rushing yards) in NFL history. That's not an exaggeration. The entire offense ran through them like not other offense ever has. Through five games, Chubb was on pace for 1,897 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Despite injuries, through eight games he was on pace for 1,985 yards and 15 touchdowns. But Chubb has been unstartable five times, including three times in his last five games.
Maybe I'm being overly critical. But I want to make sure I'm not hiding this prediction, because I made a big deal about it repeatedly over the summer. The Browns' offense simply isn't dynamic enough to sustain a one-dimensional rushing attack. Chubb hasn't been elite because Cleveland isn't getting near the goal line enough, and because he's been mostly invisible in the passing game, even when Kareem Hunt's been out. Fantasy RBs can thrive if one of these conditions is working out. But if the offense is sub-par, and the targets are few and far between, we can't trust them as elite or even near-elite RBs.
Elsewhere, I'd have to say Myles Gaskin is one of the bigger RB busts. This one I *could* see coming. Miami's actually averaging the fewest yards per carry in the NFL. Gaskin actually has one thing Chubb doesn't: passing-game usage. But he lacks rushing efficiency and touchdown opportunities. Since Week 6 he's averaged 3.2 yards per carry. The preseason RB21 has not surpassed seven fantasy points since Week 12. Among the hundreds of you who subscribed to my preseason rankings, you know that my four biggest RB busts among RB1s, 2s, and 3s were Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook (injury risks), Trey Sermon (opportunity), and Gaskin (talent). Miami surely will find a new starter in the offseason.
For surprising booms, give it up for Leonard Fournette. Congrats to those who invested in him. For context, he and Austin Ekeler have almost identical stats across the board, except Ekeler has 18 touchdowns and Fournette has "only" 10. Last year he and Ronald Jones went back and forth as lead RBs, and entering this season Fournette had sub-4.0 YPC seasons in three out of four years. Interestingly, as soon as Gio Bernard started getting more phased out (and then eventually injured), Fournette's receptions popped: 30 in his first eight games with zero TDs, and 39 in his last six games with two TDs. That catch boost gave him an unbenchable floor and an elite ceiling.
My other favorite boom is Joe Mixon. Preseason RB13. Subscribers know he was my RB5. His rise helps make up for my Chubb miss. How was Mixon's breakout anticipated? A somewhat improved offensive line, an improved passing attack, and the reality that Mixon was a very good fantasy RB before 2021: 9th best in points per game in 2018, 13th best in 2019, and 11th best in 2020. His Achilles heel was injuries. OK, so that's true for a lot of RBs. If Cincy's offense really was better, then Mixon would be better. And better than "top 9-13 RB" is around "top 4-6 RB." Mixon will finish this season as the RB4.
The lesson with Mixon is the lesson I try to keep re-learning every summer: ignore macro stats. Someone scored 180 fantasy points last year? It's largely irrelevant. We have to dig deeper. For picking the spreads each week and guessing the final scores for MNF and TNF, I game-script each contest to figure out the most likely outcomes. I do the same thing each summer for hundreds of players, walking through anticipated usage, injury risks, demotion risks, schedule, etc. to come up with their most likely production levels.
My Mixon recommendation came from the same research as my Chubb recommendation, which was rooted in the same research that led me to fade Aaron Jones and invest in A.J. Dillon, and to fade Dalvin Cook and invest in Alexander Mattison. It also led me to overlook Jonathan Taylor and Damien Harris while putting too much faith in Mike Davis and Chase Edmonds.
As always, it's inexact, though every summer I try to make it as exact as possible.
Tomorrow, a look at surprising wide receivers.
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Starting with the busts, like yesterday, not talking about injuries. Too easy to fall back on CMC or Saquon Barkley or even RB2s like Chris Carson. Who simply didn't "have it," and what can we learn from it ahead of 2022? I'll start with one the experts actually got right, but I got wrong: Nick Chubb. As some of you might remember, I pushed him as the overall RB2 this summer, anticipating that this would be a very run-friendly offense, and that a lead back averaging 5.2 yards per carry -- with four of his previous seven touchdowns coming from the 1-yard line -- would produce about 1,600 total yards and about 16 touchdowns.
Before he and Kareem Hunt got hurt, the Browns' backfield was on pace to become the most prolific backfield (in terms of carries and rushing yards) in NFL history. That's not an exaggeration. The entire offense ran through them like not other offense ever has. Through five games, Chubb was on pace for 1,897 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Despite injuries, through eight games he was on pace for 1,985 yards and 15 touchdowns. But Chubb has been unstartable five times, including three times in his last five games.
Maybe I'm being overly critical. But I want to make sure I'm not hiding this prediction, because I made a big deal about it repeatedly over the summer. The Browns' offense simply isn't dynamic enough to sustain a one-dimensional rushing attack. Chubb hasn't been elite because Cleveland isn't getting near the goal line enough, and because he's been mostly invisible in the passing game, even when Kareem Hunt's been out. Fantasy RBs can thrive if one of these conditions is working out. But if the offense is sub-par, and the targets are few and far between, we can't trust them as elite or even near-elite RBs.
Elsewhere, I'd have to say Myles Gaskin is one of the bigger RB busts. This one I *could* see coming. Miami's actually averaging the fewest yards per carry in the NFL. Gaskin actually has one thing Chubb doesn't: passing-game usage. But he lacks rushing efficiency and touchdown opportunities. Since Week 6 he's averaged 3.2 yards per carry. The preseason RB21 has not surpassed seven fantasy points since Week 12. Among the hundreds of you who subscribed to my preseason rankings, you know that my four biggest RB busts among RB1s, 2s, and 3s were Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook (injury risks), Trey Sermon (opportunity), and Gaskin (talent). Miami surely will find a new starter in the offseason.
For surprising booms, give it up for Leonard Fournette. Congrats to those who invested in him. For context, he and Austin Ekeler have almost identical stats across the board, except Ekeler has 18 touchdowns and Fournette has "only" 10. Last year he and Ronald Jones went back and forth as lead RBs, and entering this season Fournette had sub-4.0 YPC seasons in three out of four years. Interestingly, as soon as Gio Bernard started getting more phased out (and then eventually injured), Fournette's receptions popped: 30 in his first eight games with zero TDs, and 39 in his last six games with two TDs. That catch boost gave him an unbenchable floor and an elite ceiling.
My other favorite boom is Joe Mixon. Preseason RB13. Subscribers know he was my RB5. His rise helps make up for my Chubb miss. How was Mixon's breakout anticipated? A somewhat improved offensive line, an improved passing attack, and the reality that Mixon was a very good fantasy RB before 2021: 9th best in points per game in 2018, 13th best in 2019, and 11th best in 2020. His Achilles heel was injuries. OK, so that's true for a lot of RBs. If Cincy's offense really was better, then Mixon would be better. And better than "top 9-13 RB" is around "top 4-6 RB." Mixon will finish this season as the RB4.
The lesson with Mixon is the lesson I try to keep re-learning every summer: ignore macro stats. Someone scored 180 fantasy points last year? It's largely irrelevant. We have to dig deeper. For picking the spreads each week and guessing the final scores for MNF and TNF, I game-script each contest to figure out the most likely outcomes. I do the same thing each summer for hundreds of players, walking through anticipated usage, injury risks, demotion risks, schedule, etc. to come up with their most likely production levels.
My Mixon recommendation came from the same research as my Chubb recommendation, which was rooted in the same research that led me to fade Aaron Jones and invest in A.J. Dillon, and to fade Dalvin Cook and invest in Alexander Mattison. It also led me to overlook Jonathan Taylor and Damien Harris while putting too much faith in Mike Davis and Chase Edmonds.
As always, it's inexact, though every summer I try to make it as exact as possible.
Tomorrow, a look at surprising wide receivers.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy