Even if we're not playing in Week 18, there's more to learn. We can work on ways to think differently about fantasy and better prepare for 2022. Here are four QBs who wildly outperformed or underperformed expectations this season. What can we learn from it? Are there any clues for making more accurate QB predictions next season?
First, a couple of underperforming quarterbacks. I want to stay away from injured QBs, because there's not much to learn there. So Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and others are off the table. Who knows, for example, how much Wilson's second-half struggles are due to lingering issues with his finger. If he's healthy next summer, I'll still probably bet on him (depending on whether he ends up).
Ryan Tannehill jumps out as a massive underperformer. His preseason ADP was QB11. The addition of Julio Jones was supposed to compensate for the loss of Corey Davis. And Derrick Henry's injury didn't help, though Tannehill was middling at best even when his all-world RB was on the field. He was without A.J. Brown for several weeks. But he's also struggled when Brown was active. One potential culprit is new offensive coordinator Todd Downing.
So maybe it's hard to know exactly what happened. Maybe it's a combination of these factors. But when a 30-something quarterback with a career QB rating of around 90 suddenly jumps to around 110 on a new team, is that a yellow flag? Could we honestly anticipate Tannehill continuing to dominate? Wouldn't defenses adjust, as they often do?
His fantasy points per game this year would rank third among his six Dolphin seasons. In other words, he's actually doing pretty well on his Miami QB scale. It's just that his value grew too big. Next summer it should level out to around 18-20, which might actually make him a nice buy.
Trevor Lawrence also has been painfully underwhelming. His preseason ADP was QB16. Urban Meyer turned out to be a glaring red flag. But Lawrence hasn't looked any better since Meyer's firing. In his last nine games, he has two touchdowns and eight interceptions. That's a nearly impossible statistic. It's marginally better than Ryan Leaf's nine rookie starts.
Losing D.J. Chark and Dan Arnold didn't help. But many quarterbacks lose receivers to injuries. He should be able to do more with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, not to mention surprising contributors like Laquon Treadwell. I've noticed that in the Jags' lowest-scoring games, Lawrence isn't running much. In a majority of the team's eight highest-scoring games, Lawrence has had at least five rushing attempts, often for 30+ yards. It's similar with Dak Prescott and (for a time) Kyler Murray. The running element makes Lawrence and this offense click better. Without it--if he's just a pocket passer in a sub-par offense--he's not developing fast enough.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo was the QB37 this preseason. Trey Lance was supposed to compete for the starting job. I had the rookie pegged as a 2021 bargain. But the job still belongs to Jimmy G., who finally has a receiver corps that can elevate him. No more leaning on Dante Pettis or Kendrick Bourne or Marquise Goodwin. If you invested in Jimmy this summer and paired him with Lance, you secured enough value to remain competitive at QB without investing much more than a 10th-round and a final-round pick. We saw something similar with Mitch Trubisky a few years ago, when his receiver corps went from "guys who'd leave the NFL within a year" in 2017 to "Allen Robinson and better surrounding talent."
In hindsight, I should have been open to what Jimmy could do in a better offense. We have to consider this each summer. Which teams have upgraded at receiver, and have their QBs' values been revised upward?
And I have to mention Kirk Cousins. Every summer he's undervalued. I tweeted about it in August: https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1421995320574058497?s=20. He's the QB11 this year. Of course he is. Because he throws to two terrific receivers, and he has an extraordinary running back who's also an extraordinary pass-catcher--not to mention his RB handcuff. Oh, and playing on a team with a sub-par defense doesn't hurt. Cousins is money every draft because his actual production is never taken seriously by prognosticators.
So when a quarterback is throwing to an elite pass-catching RB and two top-20 WRs, and he's not ranked in the top 16, ask yourself why not. How can the first three projections be true if the QB is sub-middling? Sure, it possible. But not likely. Cousins is a better version of Philip Rivers during Rivers' peak. Similar top-heavy talent. More consistent QB1 production.
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First, a couple of underperforming quarterbacks. I want to stay away from injured QBs, because there's not much to learn there. So Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and others are off the table. Who knows, for example, how much Wilson's second-half struggles are due to lingering issues with his finger. If he's healthy next summer, I'll still probably bet on him (depending on whether he ends up).
Ryan Tannehill jumps out as a massive underperformer. His preseason ADP was QB11. The addition of Julio Jones was supposed to compensate for the loss of Corey Davis. And Derrick Henry's injury didn't help, though Tannehill was middling at best even when his all-world RB was on the field. He was without A.J. Brown for several weeks. But he's also struggled when Brown was active. One potential culprit is new offensive coordinator Todd Downing.
So maybe it's hard to know exactly what happened. Maybe it's a combination of these factors. But when a 30-something quarterback with a career QB rating of around 90 suddenly jumps to around 110 on a new team, is that a yellow flag? Could we honestly anticipate Tannehill continuing to dominate? Wouldn't defenses adjust, as they often do?
His fantasy points per game this year would rank third among his six Dolphin seasons. In other words, he's actually doing pretty well on his Miami QB scale. It's just that his value grew too big. Next summer it should level out to around 18-20, which might actually make him a nice buy.
Trevor Lawrence also has been painfully underwhelming. His preseason ADP was QB16. Urban Meyer turned out to be a glaring red flag. But Lawrence hasn't looked any better since Meyer's firing. In his last nine games, he has two touchdowns and eight interceptions. That's a nearly impossible statistic. It's marginally better than Ryan Leaf's nine rookie starts.
Losing D.J. Chark and Dan Arnold didn't help. But many quarterbacks lose receivers to injuries. He should be able to do more with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, not to mention surprising contributors like Laquon Treadwell. I've noticed that in the Jags' lowest-scoring games, Lawrence isn't running much. In a majority of the team's eight highest-scoring games, Lawrence has had at least five rushing attempts, often for 30+ yards. It's similar with Dak Prescott and (for a time) Kyler Murray. The running element makes Lawrence and this offense click better. Without it--if he's just a pocket passer in a sub-par offense--he's not developing fast enough.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo was the QB37 this preseason. Trey Lance was supposed to compete for the starting job. I had the rookie pegged as a 2021 bargain. But the job still belongs to Jimmy G., who finally has a receiver corps that can elevate him. No more leaning on Dante Pettis or Kendrick Bourne or Marquise Goodwin. If you invested in Jimmy this summer and paired him with Lance, you secured enough value to remain competitive at QB without investing much more than a 10th-round and a final-round pick. We saw something similar with Mitch Trubisky a few years ago, when his receiver corps went from "guys who'd leave the NFL within a year" in 2017 to "Allen Robinson and better surrounding talent."
In hindsight, I should have been open to what Jimmy could do in a better offense. We have to consider this each summer. Which teams have upgraded at receiver, and have their QBs' values been revised upward?
And I have to mention Kirk Cousins. Every summer he's undervalued. I tweeted about it in August: https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1421995320574058497?s=20. He's the QB11 this year. Of course he is. Because he throws to two terrific receivers, and he has an extraordinary running back who's also an extraordinary pass-catcher--not to mention his RB handcuff. Oh, and playing on a team with a sub-par defense doesn't hurt. Cousins is money every draft because his actual production is never taken seriously by prognosticators.
So when a quarterback is throwing to an elite pass-catching RB and two top-20 WRs, and he's not ranked in the top 16, ask yourself why not. How can the first three projections be true if the QB is sub-middling? Sure, it possible. But not likely. Cousins is a better version of Philip Rivers during Rivers' peak. Similar top-heavy talent. More consistent QB1 production.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy