I've heard similar questions from many of you these past few weeks: essentially, should you play it safe and start someone who's universally considered "great," or should you roll the dice on a lesser talent primed for a bigger game? It's something I struggle with every year in the playoffs.
In fact, PFN CEO Matt Cannata shared on our Slack channel recently that he once won a title because he started Ryan Fitzpatrick over the fantasy-elite Aaron Rodgers. It worked, and Matt won. Then a PFN fantasy analyst replied, "But what if it hadn't?"
And it's that doubt that creeps into so many fantasy minds. Some opt to start the great player, because we'd rather lose because we started a great player, than lose because we benched a great player. Others roll the dice on the "lesser" talent with the better matchup, and/or with the better usage opportunity.
One of my favorite Week 17 examples is Kyler Murray vs. Mac Jones. Murray is the expert-consensus QB9 this week. Jones was the QB21 three days ago, but is now up to 18. Still, I can't imagine many managers starting Jones, and it's just as hard to imagine managers sitting Murray. But I *can* imagine some managers are wondering, "Could Jones actually do pretty well against the Jaguars?" And I can imagine some managers wondering, "Can I really trust Murray on the road against the Cowboys?"
I strongly believe Jones will outperform Murray this week. He's getting overlooked, in part, because two of his last three games were against a Bills defense that's given up the fewest QB fantasy points in the league. In three of his other four most recent games, Jones has racked up a respectable 17+ points. The Patriots should win by 20+ points this weekend. I believe Bill Belichick is the type of head coach who will use this as an opportunity to develop Jones’ quarterbacking skills further, knowing that this maturation process is essential ahead of the NFL playoffs.
Meanwhile, Murray returned in Week 13 against Chicago with an incredible 30.8 fantasy points. So, what’s the problem? He led four scoring drives off of turnovers inside the Bears’ 30-yard line. He threw the ball only 15 times. Nearly two-thirds of his fantasy production came from TDs. In his three games since, he has only two touchdowns to go with three interceptions and is averaging only 17.3 fantasy points in those last three contests.
The opposing Cowboys' defense is sixth-best in the league against fantasy QBs, as quarterbacks are averaging only 15.5 points against them. In their past four weeks, Dallas is yielding an average of only 10.6 QB fantasy points. The Cowboys are also tough against the run, giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields.
I'm not sure anyone is facing this dilemma. But if I were choosing between Jones and Murray, I'd choose Jones. Because I'd rather lose because my approach didn't pan out as expected, than lose because I capitulated to societal pressure and started the "better" player.
We all have to live with our decisions, and we don't all agree on how best to arrive at those decisions. For me, it all starts with a sound process. If my lineup decisions are based on at least a relatively thorough assessment of likely outcomes, I'm comfortable with whatever happens. Not that I'm satisfied losing. But at least I lost by acting on my beliefs.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
In fact, PFN CEO Matt Cannata shared on our Slack channel recently that he once won a title because he started Ryan Fitzpatrick over the fantasy-elite Aaron Rodgers. It worked, and Matt won. Then a PFN fantasy analyst replied, "But what if it hadn't?"
And it's that doubt that creeps into so many fantasy minds. Some opt to start the great player, because we'd rather lose because we started a great player, than lose because we benched a great player. Others roll the dice on the "lesser" talent with the better matchup, and/or with the better usage opportunity.
One of my favorite Week 17 examples is Kyler Murray vs. Mac Jones. Murray is the expert-consensus QB9 this week. Jones was the QB21 three days ago, but is now up to 18. Still, I can't imagine many managers starting Jones, and it's just as hard to imagine managers sitting Murray. But I *can* imagine some managers are wondering, "Could Jones actually do pretty well against the Jaguars?" And I can imagine some managers wondering, "Can I really trust Murray on the road against the Cowboys?"
I strongly believe Jones will outperform Murray this week. He's getting overlooked, in part, because two of his last three games were against a Bills defense that's given up the fewest QB fantasy points in the league. In three of his other four most recent games, Jones has racked up a respectable 17+ points. The Patriots should win by 20+ points this weekend. I believe Bill Belichick is the type of head coach who will use this as an opportunity to develop Jones’ quarterbacking skills further, knowing that this maturation process is essential ahead of the NFL playoffs.
Meanwhile, Murray returned in Week 13 against Chicago with an incredible 30.8 fantasy points. So, what’s the problem? He led four scoring drives off of turnovers inside the Bears’ 30-yard line. He threw the ball only 15 times. Nearly two-thirds of his fantasy production came from TDs. In his three games since, he has only two touchdowns to go with three interceptions and is averaging only 17.3 fantasy points in those last three contests.
The opposing Cowboys' defense is sixth-best in the league against fantasy QBs, as quarterbacks are averaging only 15.5 points against them. In their past four weeks, Dallas is yielding an average of only 10.6 QB fantasy points. The Cowboys are also tough against the run, giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields.
I'm not sure anyone is facing this dilemma. But if I were choosing between Jones and Murray, I'd choose Jones. Because I'd rather lose because my approach didn't pan out as expected, than lose because I capitulated to societal pressure and started the "better" player.
We all have to live with our decisions, and we don't all agree on how best to arrive at those decisions. For me, it all starts with a sound process. If my lineup decisions are based on at least a relatively thorough assessment of likely outcomes, I'm comfortable with whatever happens. Not that I'm satisfied losing. But at least I lost by acting on my beliefs.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy