There are certain players we can generally feel confident about in tonight's matchup between the Titans and 49ers. But when you add in the higher-than-normal risk of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday players suddenly becoming inactive, some of us might feel pressure to lock in points now. Your situation is yours alone. You know what risks you're willing to take--or need to take.
I have A.J. Brown on my bench. Unless the status of one of my starters changes, Brown will stay on my bench. He was a boom-bust option before his injury. Nothing has changed. The difference is that he hasn't played in a little over a month. Expecting a boom in his first game back is a risk I'm not willing to take.
There are other question marks tonight, and not where we'd expect. A few weeks ago I discovered that every RB who'd earned 20+ touches on a Sunday, and then played four days later on Thursday, regressed--often sharply. It prompted me to trade Alexander Mattison that week, since he was coming off a huge workload that Sunday and was gearing up to start Thursday (then Dalvin Cook made his surprising, dominating return).
So if we follow the numbers, tonight marks the first time two 20+ touch Sunday RBs will face off immediately afterward on Thursday. Jeff Wilson will earn another start, this time against the vaunted Titans run defense. Of course, context is everything. Tennessee has yielded five rushing TDs in their last six games. And holding Rex Burkhead and a 6-carry James Robinson in check are not worth getting excited about. So while the Titans have been great, they've faced a lot of backup RBs. Wilson is better than your typical backup.
Still, if you're starting Wilson, remember the numbers: 20+ touch Sunday RBs have consistently regressed on Thursdays. Does that mean he'll get only 10-12 points? Many managers would take that, depending on your situation. But if it's 6-8 points, at least psychologically that feels a lot lower. The key here is that I'm trusting the numbers: Wilson is a major regression candidate. If you have a fairly reliable 10+ option playing later this week, I'd sit Wilson. If not, I'd start him and hope for a touchdown.
The same goes for D'Onta Foreman, one of my big midseason "buys" when Derrick Henry went down. He's back to being a household name in fantasy. But like Wilson, he's coming off a 20+ touch day, and unlike Wilson, he's facing very stiff backfield competition. Foreman has played 85 offensive snaps the past week--the same number as Dontrell Hilliard, who's averaging an insane 6.7 YPC while reeling in 13 catches. Add in Jeremy McNichols, and we could see Foreman take a step back, especially if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are starting (still unclear as of early Thursday morning). Again, I'm trusting my Sunday-Thursday research: Foreman is a surprisingly risky RB3.
Elsewhere, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are obvious calls. Jimmy G. and Brandon Aiyuk are less obvious, but I'd start the former as a nice-upside top-14 QB, and the latter as a top-36 WR with strong top-20 upside. If you don't have a top-10 QB or top-28 WR to throw into your lineup, I'd start both of these fringe starters tonight.
Final score prediction: 27-23 49ers. Leave your prediction below. If you're closest, you'll see your name in lights (on your phone or laptop) tomorrow.
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I have A.J. Brown on my bench. Unless the status of one of my starters changes, Brown will stay on my bench. He was a boom-bust option before his injury. Nothing has changed. The difference is that he hasn't played in a little over a month. Expecting a boom in his first game back is a risk I'm not willing to take.
There are other question marks tonight, and not where we'd expect. A few weeks ago I discovered that every RB who'd earned 20+ touches on a Sunday, and then played four days later on Thursday, regressed--often sharply. It prompted me to trade Alexander Mattison that week, since he was coming off a huge workload that Sunday and was gearing up to start Thursday (then Dalvin Cook made his surprising, dominating return).
So if we follow the numbers, tonight marks the first time two 20+ touch Sunday RBs will face off immediately afterward on Thursday. Jeff Wilson will earn another start, this time against the vaunted Titans run defense. Of course, context is everything. Tennessee has yielded five rushing TDs in their last six games. And holding Rex Burkhead and a 6-carry James Robinson in check are not worth getting excited about. So while the Titans have been great, they've faced a lot of backup RBs. Wilson is better than your typical backup.
Still, if you're starting Wilson, remember the numbers: 20+ touch Sunday RBs have consistently regressed on Thursdays. Does that mean he'll get only 10-12 points? Many managers would take that, depending on your situation. But if it's 6-8 points, at least psychologically that feels a lot lower. The key here is that I'm trusting the numbers: Wilson is a major regression candidate. If you have a fairly reliable 10+ option playing later this week, I'd sit Wilson. If not, I'd start him and hope for a touchdown.
The same goes for D'Onta Foreman, one of my big midseason "buys" when Derrick Henry went down. He's back to being a household name in fantasy. But like Wilson, he's coming off a 20+ touch day, and unlike Wilson, he's facing very stiff backfield competition. Foreman has played 85 offensive snaps the past week--the same number as Dontrell Hilliard, who's averaging an insane 6.7 YPC while reeling in 13 catches. Add in Jeremy McNichols, and we could see Foreman take a step back, especially if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are starting (still unclear as of early Thursday morning). Again, I'm trusting my Sunday-Thursday research: Foreman is a surprisingly risky RB3.
Elsewhere, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are obvious calls. Jimmy G. and Brandon Aiyuk are less obvious, but I'd start the former as a nice-upside top-14 QB, and the latter as a top-36 WR with strong top-20 upside. If you don't have a top-10 QB or top-28 WR to throw into your lineup, I'd start both of these fringe starters tonight.
Final score prediction: 27-23 49ers. Leave your prediction below. If you're closest, you'll see your name in lights (on your phone or laptop) tomorrow.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy