Running through fantasy predictions for each Sunday game. Before that, another reminder that I'm going through what many of you are going through. I lost Mike Williams yesterday to the COVID list. Didn't have any great options on waivers, so I shifted Michael Carter into my flex (in case he goes on the COVID list this morning) and plugged A.J. Dillon into my #2 RB slot. Eked out 8.6 points from Dillon. Probably would've gotten more from a healthy Williams. Those are the breaks. We do the best we can with whatever comes our way, and win or lose, we did what we could.
Falcons (-6.5) vs. Lions -- A bounce-back game for Cordarrelle Patterson, and I like Kyle Pitts finally re-emerging as a TE1. Remember, the 6-8 Falcons still somehow are in the playoff hunt. Russell Gage is a solid bet given what we've seen in recent weeks. But my focus is on Patterson and Pitts re-emerging. For Detroit, it's anyone's guess how Tim Boyle (expected to start at QB) will fare. But I'd downgrade every receiver for obvious reasons. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the best hope for streaming production. And will D'Andre Swift be a must-start RB? I don't trust any Detroit RB if he, Jamaal Williams, and Craig Reynolds are active.
Bengals (-7) vs. Ravens -- I like the Bengals winning this one by more than a touchdown because I believe they'll game plan against the Ravens' biggest weakness: pass defense. Joe Burrow should be a top-6 fantasy QB. Joe Mixon is an RB3 at best. For Baltimore, Josh Johnson is yet another third-string QB to earn a start in the 2021 season. Mark Andrews is the only seemingly trustworthy receiver. Hard to believe that the once-dominant Marquise Brown might not hit 10 points. And I could have started Devonta Freeman instead of Dillon, but I don't trust Freeman against a Cincy run D that in the last four weeks has allowed the fifth fewest RB fantasy points.
Vikings (+3.5) vs. Rams -- Hard to bet against the Rams. But I'm betting on Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, and (if he returns) Adam Thielen. This game is expected to be high-scoring, which of course should make some fantasy managers thrilled. I'd start all the usual guys in this one, including OBJ and Van Jefferson as strong rebound candidates after last week's inexplicable disappointments. As for Sony Michel vs. Darrell Henderson, no one knows but the Rams organization. Michel enters today with the advantage. But it could be a hot-hand situation.
Patriots (-2) vs. Bills -- Damien Harris is currently questionable. Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor are out. Assuming Harris starts, he'll be a risky RB3. Brandon Bolden will be a reception-dependant RB4. Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Henry are intriguing flyers. But let's be real: it will be hard to trust any Patriot in this one. If Buffalo loses, it's possible they'll no longer control their postseason destiny. I'm expecting Buffalo's defense to play big. The same goes for New England's D. Full disclosure: I'm playing against Josh Allen and Devin Singletary today. Neither are safe starts. I'm projecting Allen at around 14-16 points. Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox are seemingly must-starts. But never underestimate the Patriots' ability to shut down any team this season.
Jets (-1.5) vs. Jaguars -- If things play out as expected, Zach Wilson will utilize Michael Carter as a pass-catching weapon, Tyler Kroft will get 9+ points, and Braxton Berrios will be startable. Against the Jags, we can expect New York to generate some offense. I'm starting Carter with relative confidence as an RB3+. For Jacksonville, James Robinson is safe. Laviska Shenault or Marvin Jones or Laquon Treadwell should be streamable. The question is which ones. Treadwell has the advantage based on recent performances. I wish it were the more talented Shenault.
Eagles (-10) vs. Giants -- The point spread is concerning, but so is Jake Fromm. Saquon Barkley should be in starting lineups regardless, and Devontae Booker could see some PPR love. I'd be shocked if any Giants receiver exceeded 11 points. For Philly, what's going on with DeVonta Smith? The Giants have a decent pass defense, and I expect them to try to lock down the high-flying Dallas Goedert. Miles Sanders clearly is locked in, and Jordan Howard is a TD-dependent complementary piece.
Panthers (+10) vs. Buccaneers -- A fascinating game. I'm actually starting the Bucs DST. My concern is with Tampa Bay's offense against a tough Carolina defense. Antonio Brown and Gronk are must-starts. But I'm not at all high on Ronald Jones. 2020 third-rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn could into Jones's ceiling. I don't think Jones will be a top-28 RB. He's one of the most overhyped players of Week 16. For the Panthers, we could see Cam Newton and Sam Darnold throwing to D.J. Moore and not much else. No RB is safe. No receiver besides Moore is semi-safe.
Texans (+10.5) vs. Chargers -- Not sure where Houston will generate offense with Brandon Cooks out. But Nico Collins is expected to step up, and there are worse flyers out there if you need an 8+ point flex. Still, the Chargers' weakness is with their pass defense, where they're giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing backfields. I'm expecting a heavy dose of Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman. Maybe one of them will be a top-30 RB. For L.A., Joshua Palmer is a fantastic streamer who realistically could hit 16+ points. Justin Jackson is a nice 10+ point option, though I believe he'll need to score to crack the top 20, as Joshua Kelley should mix in.
Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Bears -- Maybe I'm a sucker, but I like Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf capitalizing on a very beatable Chicago pass defense. I haven't trusted Rashaad Penny all year and still don't. For Chicago, Nick Foles at QB means Darnell Mooney is a "maybe" WR3. I'm not sure if he'll spread it around or isolate on his best receiver. For now, David Montgomery is the safest bet.
Chiefs (-10) vs. Steelers -- Fire up all the usual Chiefs, as long as they're active. CEH is a must-start against Pittsburgh's porous run defense. Darrel Williams is a decent flyer in what should be a minor blowout. I'm betting against Big Ben exceeding 12 fantasy points. Najee Harris remains overvalued in fantasy--an unpopular narrative I've been pushing for over a month. He's a risky RB2 at best and an RB4 at worst. It all depends how he's used in the passing game. Diontae Johnson is the only startable receiver.
Broncos (+1.5) vs. Raiders -- I'm betting on Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon controlling this game. Maybe I'm wrong. But with Drew Lock under center, there's once again little need to throw. The Raiders are yielding the third most RB fantasy points this year. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow should bounce back. Josh Jacobs is an RB2/3. Foster Moreau should hit 7+ points. I'm not feeling good about anyone else.
Cowboys (-10) vs. Washington -- Amari Cooper expressed some concern this week about targets. I'm expecting 10+ for the almost disgruntled receiver. Fire up Amari as a must-start WR after weeks of disappointment. Nothing else unusual here, except maybe Tony Pollard as a worthwhile streamer in a game Dallas should control from the start. As for Washington, if Antonio Gibson sits, Jaret Patterson will be a desperation RB3/4. I don't like their game script, and I haven't trusted Terry McLaurin for two months. So this game could (and probably will) get ugly.
Saints (+2.5) vs. Dolphins -- With Ian Book at QB, the odds-makers are banking on a Miami victory. I like what Book did in college and believe he won't be much worse than Taysom Hill, at least in the passing department. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will carry much of the load; both are startable, though obviously Kamara is a must-start as always. For Miami, Jaylen Waddle is the only must-start, despite the tough matchup. I can see Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson getting completely shut down by the Saints' fierce run defense. Wouldn't start either of them.
Good luck today.
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Falcons (-6.5) vs. Lions -- A bounce-back game for Cordarrelle Patterson, and I like Kyle Pitts finally re-emerging as a TE1. Remember, the 6-8 Falcons still somehow are in the playoff hunt. Russell Gage is a solid bet given what we've seen in recent weeks. But my focus is on Patterson and Pitts re-emerging. For Detroit, it's anyone's guess how Tim Boyle (expected to start at QB) will fare. But I'd downgrade every receiver for obvious reasons. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the best hope for streaming production. And will D'Andre Swift be a must-start RB? I don't trust any Detroit RB if he, Jamaal Williams, and Craig Reynolds are active.
Bengals (-7) vs. Ravens -- I like the Bengals winning this one by more than a touchdown because I believe they'll game plan against the Ravens' biggest weakness: pass defense. Joe Burrow should be a top-6 fantasy QB. Joe Mixon is an RB3 at best. For Baltimore, Josh Johnson is yet another third-string QB to earn a start in the 2021 season. Mark Andrews is the only seemingly trustworthy receiver. Hard to believe that the once-dominant Marquise Brown might not hit 10 points. And I could have started Devonta Freeman instead of Dillon, but I don't trust Freeman against a Cincy run D that in the last four weeks has allowed the fifth fewest RB fantasy points.
Vikings (+3.5) vs. Rams -- Hard to bet against the Rams. But I'm betting on Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, and (if he returns) Adam Thielen. This game is expected to be high-scoring, which of course should make some fantasy managers thrilled. I'd start all the usual guys in this one, including OBJ and Van Jefferson as strong rebound candidates after last week's inexplicable disappointments. As for Sony Michel vs. Darrell Henderson, no one knows but the Rams organization. Michel enters today with the advantage. But it could be a hot-hand situation.
Patriots (-2) vs. Bills -- Damien Harris is currently questionable. Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor are out. Assuming Harris starts, he'll be a risky RB3. Brandon Bolden will be a reception-dependant RB4. Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Henry are intriguing flyers. But let's be real: it will be hard to trust any Patriot in this one. If Buffalo loses, it's possible they'll no longer control their postseason destiny. I'm expecting Buffalo's defense to play big. The same goes for New England's D. Full disclosure: I'm playing against Josh Allen and Devin Singletary today. Neither are safe starts. I'm projecting Allen at around 14-16 points. Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox are seemingly must-starts. But never underestimate the Patriots' ability to shut down any team this season.
Jets (-1.5) vs. Jaguars -- If things play out as expected, Zach Wilson will utilize Michael Carter as a pass-catching weapon, Tyler Kroft will get 9+ points, and Braxton Berrios will be startable. Against the Jags, we can expect New York to generate some offense. I'm starting Carter with relative confidence as an RB3+. For Jacksonville, James Robinson is safe. Laviska Shenault or Marvin Jones or Laquon Treadwell should be streamable. The question is which ones. Treadwell has the advantage based on recent performances. I wish it were the more talented Shenault.
Eagles (-10) vs. Giants -- The point spread is concerning, but so is Jake Fromm. Saquon Barkley should be in starting lineups regardless, and Devontae Booker could see some PPR love. I'd be shocked if any Giants receiver exceeded 11 points. For Philly, what's going on with DeVonta Smith? The Giants have a decent pass defense, and I expect them to try to lock down the high-flying Dallas Goedert. Miles Sanders clearly is locked in, and Jordan Howard is a TD-dependent complementary piece.
Panthers (+10) vs. Buccaneers -- A fascinating game. I'm actually starting the Bucs DST. My concern is with Tampa Bay's offense against a tough Carolina defense. Antonio Brown and Gronk are must-starts. But I'm not at all high on Ronald Jones. 2020 third-rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn could into Jones's ceiling. I don't think Jones will be a top-28 RB. He's one of the most overhyped players of Week 16. For the Panthers, we could see Cam Newton and Sam Darnold throwing to D.J. Moore and not much else. No RB is safe. No receiver besides Moore is semi-safe.
Texans (+10.5) vs. Chargers -- Not sure where Houston will generate offense with Brandon Cooks out. But Nico Collins is expected to step up, and there are worse flyers out there if you need an 8+ point flex. Still, the Chargers' weakness is with their pass defense, where they're giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing backfields. I'm expecting a heavy dose of Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman. Maybe one of them will be a top-30 RB. For L.A., Joshua Palmer is a fantastic streamer who realistically could hit 16+ points. Justin Jackson is a nice 10+ point option, though I believe he'll need to score to crack the top 20, as Joshua Kelley should mix in.
Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Bears -- Maybe I'm a sucker, but I like Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf capitalizing on a very beatable Chicago pass defense. I haven't trusted Rashaad Penny all year and still don't. For Chicago, Nick Foles at QB means Darnell Mooney is a "maybe" WR3. I'm not sure if he'll spread it around or isolate on his best receiver. For now, David Montgomery is the safest bet.
Chiefs (-10) vs. Steelers -- Fire up all the usual Chiefs, as long as they're active. CEH is a must-start against Pittsburgh's porous run defense. Darrel Williams is a decent flyer in what should be a minor blowout. I'm betting against Big Ben exceeding 12 fantasy points. Najee Harris remains overvalued in fantasy--an unpopular narrative I've been pushing for over a month. He's a risky RB2 at best and an RB4 at worst. It all depends how he's used in the passing game. Diontae Johnson is the only startable receiver.
Broncos (+1.5) vs. Raiders -- I'm betting on Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon controlling this game. Maybe I'm wrong. But with Drew Lock under center, there's once again little need to throw. The Raiders are yielding the third most RB fantasy points this year. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow should bounce back. Josh Jacobs is an RB2/3. Foster Moreau should hit 7+ points. I'm not feeling good about anyone else.
Cowboys (-10) vs. Washington -- Amari Cooper expressed some concern this week about targets. I'm expecting 10+ for the almost disgruntled receiver. Fire up Amari as a must-start WR after weeks of disappointment. Nothing else unusual here, except maybe Tony Pollard as a worthwhile streamer in a game Dallas should control from the start. As for Washington, if Antonio Gibson sits, Jaret Patterson will be a desperation RB3/4. I don't like their game script, and I haven't trusted Terry McLaurin for two months. So this game could (and probably will) get ugly.
Saints (+2.5) vs. Dolphins -- With Ian Book at QB, the odds-makers are banking on a Miami victory. I like what Book did in college and believe he won't be much worse than Taysom Hill, at least in the passing department. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will carry much of the load; both are startable, though obviously Kamara is a must-start as always. For Miami, Jaylen Waddle is the only must-start, despite the tough matchup. I can see Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson getting completely shut down by the Saints' fierce run defense. Wouldn't start either of them.
Good luck today.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy