Entering last night, the formerly 1-7 Dolphins were on a six-game winning streak. Five of those six wins were against teams with current winning percentages of .333 or worse. Their victory over the Saints was convincing, and it also didn't tell us anything new. New Orleans had 17 players on the COVID list and were starting their fourth-string QB. So as good as Miami played, remember that a healthier version of this Saints team shut out the Bucs last week on the road. The Dolphins will wrap up against Tennessee and New England and likely need to win both to reach the postseason. The 7-8 Saints will have to be Carolina and Atlanta for a lesser shot at the playoffs.
Fantasy-wise, I was wrong about Ian Book. He was a very good rushing QB in college. Thought he'd find opportunities, but he didn't have a single attempt. Maybe Sean Payton didn't trust him. But this team needed to shake things up after halftime, and they didn't, or couldn't. Book had some nice passes, particularly to Marquez Callaway, who once again proved that with a better quarterback, he could have been streamable most weeks this season, instead of being a mid-range WR4.
We did not see as much of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as I'd anticipated. Really, that seemed like the key to victory. Early in the fourth quarter, Book had more pass attempts than Kamara and Ingram had rushing attempts (combined). I won't claim to know anything about coaching an NFL team. But four of the Saints' first six offensive plays were pass plays. It didn't make sense. I misjudged how Peyton would approach this game.
Interestingly, the Saints' strategy seemed to change early in the fourth quarter, with Kamara breaking a big run and Book rushing a couple times, including for a first down. Then they went away from it, with Book getting needlessly sacked out of bounds on first down, forcing him to throw on 2nd-and-21, leading to another sack, and eventually another punt. I find it's helpful to walk through processes for fantasy predictions, especially when they go wrong. I didn't see how the Saints could win this through the air. But they tried to. And it was obvious five minutes into the game that it wasn't going to work.
For Miami, my non-stop warnings about Myles Gaskin all season finally--finally!--make sense. I pounded the same drumbeat on Zack Moss earlier this year, incredulous that the more talented Devin Singletary was consistently taking a backseat. Gaskin has never been the answer. He's simply been the best of a lacking running back corps. His usage has dropped in each games since November 21. Surely the Fins will lock in a true bell cow in the offseason. For now, it appears no Miami RB will be reliable during this homestretch.
And Jaylen Waddle is on pace for one of the greatest rookie WR seasons in history. Through Week 11 his highest yardage output was 83. But he's had 90+ in each of his last three games. His rapid ascension has turned DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki into afterthoughts. I liked Waddle last night, but did not expect him to dominate at the expense of his talented receiver teammates. He and Tua Tagovailoa are clicking. Waddle might be a third- or even second-round pick next season. And if that sounds farfetched, he's currently the WR11 despite missing a game, and despite starting the year relatively slow while acclimating to the league. There's surely room to grow in Year 2.
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Fantasy-wise, I was wrong about Ian Book. He was a very good rushing QB in college. Thought he'd find opportunities, but he didn't have a single attempt. Maybe Sean Payton didn't trust him. But this team needed to shake things up after halftime, and they didn't, or couldn't. Book had some nice passes, particularly to Marquez Callaway, who once again proved that with a better quarterback, he could have been streamable most weeks this season, instead of being a mid-range WR4.
We did not see as much of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as I'd anticipated. Really, that seemed like the key to victory. Early in the fourth quarter, Book had more pass attempts than Kamara and Ingram had rushing attempts (combined). I won't claim to know anything about coaching an NFL team. But four of the Saints' first six offensive plays were pass plays. It didn't make sense. I misjudged how Peyton would approach this game.
Interestingly, the Saints' strategy seemed to change early in the fourth quarter, with Kamara breaking a big run and Book rushing a couple times, including for a first down. Then they went away from it, with Book getting needlessly sacked out of bounds on first down, forcing him to throw on 2nd-and-21, leading to another sack, and eventually another punt. I find it's helpful to walk through processes for fantasy predictions, especially when they go wrong. I didn't see how the Saints could win this through the air. But they tried to. And it was obvious five minutes into the game that it wasn't going to work.
For Miami, my non-stop warnings about Myles Gaskin all season finally--finally!--make sense. I pounded the same drumbeat on Zack Moss earlier this year, incredulous that the more talented Devin Singletary was consistently taking a backseat. Gaskin has never been the answer. He's simply been the best of a lacking running back corps. His usage has dropped in each games since November 21. Surely the Fins will lock in a true bell cow in the offseason. For now, it appears no Miami RB will be reliable during this homestretch.
And Jaylen Waddle is on pace for one of the greatest rookie WR seasons in history. Through Week 11 his highest yardage output was 83. But he's had 90+ in each of his last three games. His rapid ascension has turned DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki into afterthoughts. I liked Waddle last night, but did not expect him to dominate at the expense of his talented receiver teammates. He and Tua Tagovailoa are clicking. Waddle might be a third- or even second-round pick next season. And if that sounds farfetched, he's currently the WR11 despite missing a game, and despite starting the year relatively slow while acclimating to the league. There's surely room to grow in Year 2.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy