Heading into tonight's game between the Chargers and Chiefs, the NFL is awash in COVID cases and injuries. There's probably a more pointed word than "awash," but we all get it. All fantasy managers can do is throw up our hands, and then hustle for whatever's left on waivers. But don't lose faith. There are always Craig Reynolds-caliber options out there. Offenses don't ground to a halt just because a big player is out. Just look at Arizona, where now Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are top-30 WRs, while Rondale Moore could be a cheap 9+ point option.
And that sets us up for Thursday Night Football, where Austin Ekeler is currently questionable. If he somehow sits (I doubt he will, but we have to be prepared), Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley could be streamable. When Larry Rountree was listed as inactive last week, I shared with my PFN team on Slack with the message "interesting for future handcuff content." Because inactives offer insights on future pecking orders.
Rountree has run very poorly this season (2.4 YPC) and does not yet look NFL ready. He has yet to break a tackle on 36 carries and has only one reception. The challenge is that Kelley and Jackson are not much better. Kelley's career 3.2 YPC is offset somewhat by proven capabilities in the passing game. But can we really expect him to net more than eight points if Ekeler sits? And don't be fooled by Justin Jackson's impressive 2021 stat line; if we remove his 75-yard run against the Patriots, he has 78 yards on 28 carries (2.8 YPC). As impressive as that long run was, he also has zero broken tackles and would be no more than an RB4 dart throw. All would be almost entirely TD-dependent.
Now zooming out on the big picture: these two teams have combined for 41+ points the last eight times they've played each other. I'm careful not to make apples-to-oranges comparisons. In this case, the narrative fits, as these two offenses have been remarkably stable the past few years. The biggest difference is the arrival last year of Justin Herbert, which only increases the odds of a big-scoring night.
Both teams are beatable on the ground. CEH and even Darrel Williams make sense in fantasy lineups. My DFS article on the PFN website (running today at 10:00am) highlights Byron Pringle as a surprising dart throw with Josh Gordon out. Even with Gordon on the field, Pringle’s averaged 59%-72% of the team’s offensive snaps the past four games. It's fair to assume that despite the Chargers' relatively strong pass defense, Pringle or Mecole Hardman have an opening for 10+ points. Desperate fantasy managers should be able to find one or both on waivers.
Sticking with Kansas City, because I love statistical oddities, I need to point out that in his last two games, Tyreek Hill has six receptions for 98 scoreless yards on nine targets. This is his worst two-game stretch since Weeks 5 and 6 last season, when he had -- you guessed it -- six receptions for 98 scoreless yards on nine targets. It would be shocking if Hill is held in check yet again; the Chiefs will find a way to get him going. As for Travis Kelce, yikes: back-to-back 3-27-0 receiving lines and only one TD in his last eight games. I'm seeing sit/start questions involving Kelce, and I have no good answers. His floor is as high as any TE's. We have to trust he'll get back on track. But after back-to-back 20+ point fantasy days in Weeks 1 and 2, he hasn't hit that plateau since.
Back to the Chargers: I'm starting Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams in my first-round playoff game. Hoping for 50+ points between the three. Williams is more of a hedge than anything else. I'm concerned Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton will creep a little bit more into the offense. Palmer is a fantastic dynasty hold for 2022. For now, I'm just hoping Williams gets me through one more week; we all know he's risky, and yet his upside is too high to completely ignore.
Predictions for tonight? Looking forward to seeing your guesses. I'll go 34-26 Chargers. And good luck to all of you with something to play for.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
And that sets us up for Thursday Night Football, where Austin Ekeler is currently questionable. If he somehow sits (I doubt he will, but we have to be prepared), Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley could be streamable. When Larry Rountree was listed as inactive last week, I shared with my PFN team on Slack with the message "interesting for future handcuff content." Because inactives offer insights on future pecking orders.
Rountree has run very poorly this season (2.4 YPC) and does not yet look NFL ready. He has yet to break a tackle on 36 carries and has only one reception. The challenge is that Kelley and Jackson are not much better. Kelley's career 3.2 YPC is offset somewhat by proven capabilities in the passing game. But can we really expect him to net more than eight points if Ekeler sits? And don't be fooled by Justin Jackson's impressive 2021 stat line; if we remove his 75-yard run against the Patriots, he has 78 yards on 28 carries (2.8 YPC). As impressive as that long run was, he also has zero broken tackles and would be no more than an RB4 dart throw. All would be almost entirely TD-dependent.
Now zooming out on the big picture: these two teams have combined for 41+ points the last eight times they've played each other. I'm careful not to make apples-to-oranges comparisons. In this case, the narrative fits, as these two offenses have been remarkably stable the past few years. The biggest difference is the arrival last year of Justin Herbert, which only increases the odds of a big-scoring night.
Both teams are beatable on the ground. CEH and even Darrel Williams make sense in fantasy lineups. My DFS article on the PFN website (running today at 10:00am) highlights Byron Pringle as a surprising dart throw with Josh Gordon out. Even with Gordon on the field, Pringle’s averaged 59%-72% of the team’s offensive snaps the past four games. It's fair to assume that despite the Chargers' relatively strong pass defense, Pringle or Mecole Hardman have an opening for 10+ points. Desperate fantasy managers should be able to find one or both on waivers.
Sticking with Kansas City, because I love statistical oddities, I need to point out that in his last two games, Tyreek Hill has six receptions for 98 scoreless yards on nine targets. This is his worst two-game stretch since Weeks 5 and 6 last season, when he had -- you guessed it -- six receptions for 98 scoreless yards on nine targets. It would be shocking if Hill is held in check yet again; the Chiefs will find a way to get him going. As for Travis Kelce, yikes: back-to-back 3-27-0 receiving lines and only one TD in his last eight games. I'm seeing sit/start questions involving Kelce, and I have no good answers. His floor is as high as any TE's. We have to trust he'll get back on track. But after back-to-back 20+ point fantasy days in Weeks 1 and 2, he hasn't hit that plateau since.
Back to the Chargers: I'm starting Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams in my first-round playoff game. Hoping for 50+ points between the three. Williams is more of a hedge than anything else. I'm concerned Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton will creep a little bit more into the offense. Palmer is a fantastic dynasty hold for 2022. For now, I'm just hoping Williams gets me through one more week; we all know he's risky, and yet his upside is too high to completely ignore.
Predictions for tonight? Looking forward to seeing your guesses. I'll go 34-26 Chargers. And good luck to all of you with something to play for.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy