Some big takeaways from yesterday's games, and then thoughts on this evening's contests.
First, I'm trying to get my head around Tyler Huntley. In what world is Jordan Love a first-round pick, but everyone passes on Huntley? I get it: small sample size. But we saw enough in college to know he's a legit talent. The biggest question was whether his game could translate to the NFL. Apparently it can. With the postseason on the line, their final three games are against the Bengals, Rams and Steelers. Nothing easy about that. But if Lamar Jackson isn't ready to return, would Huntley be a top-12 fantasy QB in Week 16?
While doing research yesterday morning, I looked more closely at Cordarrelle Patterson's numbers. My problem is that I'd been analyzing his production as a whole. It's actually been two very different seasons for Patterson. Through Week 9 he averaged 4.8 receptions for 57 yards while scoring 5 TDs. Then from Week 10 to Week 14 he averaged only two receptions for 15 scoreless yards I tweeted that "this drop-off is concerning, as it suggests defenses might be adjusting.” Yesterday he had two catches for only five yards. Yes, he nearly got into the end zone on the opening drive. But his reduced role as a pass-catcher is a game-changer for someone who isn't a "great" running back in the purest sense.
As for injuries, Tampa Bay isn't quite in crisis mode. We don't yet know the severity of injuries to Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. And frankly, with Antonio Brown nearing his return and Ronald Jones running pretty well, this offense could still be top-10 in the league without their top three weapons. But the Saints have now beaten Brady four straight times, and it's fair to wonder if Tampa Bay will play it conservatively these final three weeks to ensure everyone's healthy for the playoffs. That could turn RoJo, and even Tyler Johnson or Scotty Miller, into valued fantasy assets.
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For tonight's games, it's win-or-go-home for many of you. I'm up 50 with Nick Chubb remaining. Counting the hours and hoping he doesn't land on the COVID list, because my league doesn't have waiver adds on Mondays. As the commissioner, that's on me. But I'm just hoping Chubb is active and gives me 10+ points. My opponent has Kirk Cousins tonight and both Van Jefferson and the Rams DST tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if Jefferson and the Rams combine for 35 points. So while I should feel confident--and while the ESPN "win probability" meter insists I should be confident--in today's NFL climate, virtually no lead is safe.
Zooming in on the Browns-Raiders game, yes, a lot could change these next few hours. For now, if things remain the same, Nick Mullens will helm Cleveland's run-friendly offense, while D'Ernest Johnson could be a heckuva valuable streamer alongside Chubb. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku offer the most upside at WR and TE. I'm actually surprisingly comfortable with Mullens at QB; he's one of the league's most experienced #3 QBs and should do enough to warrant starting in two-QB leagues (a fall-back option if you've been waiting to see if Baker Mayfield could return).
Meanwhile, the Raiders should benefit with several Cleveland defensive players on the COVID list. Foster Moreau remains an intriguing TE streamer. And normally the Browns are the ninth best team against the run and middling against the pass. Today is tough to gauge for obvious reasons. I have to believe Cleveland will step up at home and will use their elite running game to move the chains and keep their defense off the field. The Raiders are very beatable on the ground (the NFL's third most fantasy points given up to opposing RBs). So if you're starting Josh Jacobs, you have to hope he gets enough usage in the passing game (14 receptions the past two weeks) to compensate for a reduced role in the running game (only 22 carries these past two weeks).
In the nightcap, I'm all in on Justin Fields and David Montgomery. The opposing Vikings are yielding 4.7 YPC to opposing rushers and a healthy 24 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth most). Darnell Mooney is back to being a good streamer after a couple quiet performances, and I still like Cole Kmet, even though I probably shouldn't given how underutilized he's been.
As for the Vikings, my opponent this week will be happy to hear (though he presumably already knows) that Chicago is yielding the highest opposing QB rating in the league (106.6), and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game--the third highest mark. The past two weeks that average is 30.2 points, as Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray obliterated them. In fairness, Kyler started four TD drives inside the Bears' 30-yard line due to four Andy Dalton turnovers. I expect Chicago to move the ball better with Fields at QB. Cousins is a solid bet for 18-22 points, particularly if Adam Thielen (questionable) returns.
Good luck tonight.
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First, I'm trying to get my head around Tyler Huntley. In what world is Jordan Love a first-round pick, but everyone passes on Huntley? I get it: small sample size. But we saw enough in college to know he's a legit talent. The biggest question was whether his game could translate to the NFL. Apparently it can. With the postseason on the line, their final three games are against the Bengals, Rams and Steelers. Nothing easy about that. But if Lamar Jackson isn't ready to return, would Huntley be a top-12 fantasy QB in Week 16?
While doing research yesterday morning, I looked more closely at Cordarrelle Patterson's numbers. My problem is that I'd been analyzing his production as a whole. It's actually been two very different seasons for Patterson. Through Week 9 he averaged 4.8 receptions for 57 yards while scoring 5 TDs. Then from Week 10 to Week 14 he averaged only two receptions for 15 scoreless yards I tweeted that "this drop-off is concerning, as it suggests defenses might be adjusting.” Yesterday he had two catches for only five yards. Yes, he nearly got into the end zone on the opening drive. But his reduced role as a pass-catcher is a game-changer for someone who isn't a "great" running back in the purest sense.
As for injuries, Tampa Bay isn't quite in crisis mode. We don't yet know the severity of injuries to Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. And frankly, with Antonio Brown nearing his return and Ronald Jones running pretty well, this offense could still be top-10 in the league without their top three weapons. But the Saints have now beaten Brady four straight times, and it's fair to wonder if Tampa Bay will play it conservatively these final three weeks to ensure everyone's healthy for the playoffs. That could turn RoJo, and even Tyler Johnson or Scotty Miller, into valued fantasy assets.
---
For tonight's games, it's win-or-go-home for many of you. I'm up 50 with Nick Chubb remaining. Counting the hours and hoping he doesn't land on the COVID list, because my league doesn't have waiver adds on Mondays. As the commissioner, that's on me. But I'm just hoping Chubb is active and gives me 10+ points. My opponent has Kirk Cousins tonight and both Van Jefferson and the Rams DST tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if Jefferson and the Rams combine for 35 points. So while I should feel confident--and while the ESPN "win probability" meter insists I should be confident--in today's NFL climate, virtually no lead is safe.
Zooming in on the Browns-Raiders game, yes, a lot could change these next few hours. For now, if things remain the same, Nick Mullens will helm Cleveland's run-friendly offense, while D'Ernest Johnson could be a heckuva valuable streamer alongside Chubb. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku offer the most upside at WR and TE. I'm actually surprisingly comfortable with Mullens at QB; he's one of the league's most experienced #3 QBs and should do enough to warrant starting in two-QB leagues (a fall-back option if you've been waiting to see if Baker Mayfield could return).
Meanwhile, the Raiders should benefit with several Cleveland defensive players on the COVID list. Foster Moreau remains an intriguing TE streamer. And normally the Browns are the ninth best team against the run and middling against the pass. Today is tough to gauge for obvious reasons. I have to believe Cleveland will step up at home and will use their elite running game to move the chains and keep their defense off the field. The Raiders are very beatable on the ground (the NFL's third most fantasy points given up to opposing RBs). So if you're starting Josh Jacobs, you have to hope he gets enough usage in the passing game (14 receptions the past two weeks) to compensate for a reduced role in the running game (only 22 carries these past two weeks).
In the nightcap, I'm all in on Justin Fields and David Montgomery. The opposing Vikings are yielding 4.7 YPC to opposing rushers and a healthy 24 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth most). Darnell Mooney is back to being a good streamer after a couple quiet performances, and I still like Cole Kmet, even though I probably shouldn't given how underutilized he's been.
As for the Vikings, my opponent this week will be happy to hear (though he presumably already knows) that Chicago is yielding the highest opposing QB rating in the league (106.6), and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game--the third highest mark. The past two weeks that average is 30.2 points, as Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray obliterated them. In fairness, Kyler started four TD drives inside the Bears' 30-yard line due to four Andy Dalton turnovers. I expect Chicago to move the ball better with Fields at QB. Cousins is a solid bet for 18-22 points, particularly if Adam Thielen (questionable) returns.
Good luck tonight.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy