First off, I'm writing this after watching Hunter Henry go nuts on the field. I'm facing Henry in the playoffs. So I'm a bit, um, disappointed. But . . . there are many more games to be played. And some of you probably are thrilled with Henry. So let's focus on the positives. Yay Henry.
A big congratulations to Adam Brooks for picking the closest score: 29-21 Colts. Most of you picked the Patriots, so that made my job easier, scanning the page for the small handful of you who believed in some Indianapolis magic (or mostly, Jonathan Taylor magic). I was second closest with a 20-17 guess. But this is Adam's day, so I'll get off the stage.
Since it's after midnight as I'm writing this, a very quick run through today's games, including picking the spreads, which has worked out really well these past three weeks I've been doing it. Let's keep riding the wave 'til it crashes:
Bills (-13.5) vs. Panthers -- I'm expecting a sizable victory for the 7-6 Bills, as they face the prospect of somehow missing the playoffs if they lose this one, because they'll head to New England next week, and I don't see that going well. Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley are solid streamers. For Carolina, I honestly don't trust anyone to get more than nine fantasy points. Buffalo's D/ST is my favorite D/ST of Week 15.
Lions (+12.5) vs. Cardinals -- Can Craig Reynolds do it again? And with T.J. Hockenson out, can Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Josh Reynolds be must-start fantasy options? I'm saying yes to all of it. And for Arizona, I'm very concerned about the injured James Conner's role with Chase Edmonds returning. Meanwhile, I'd feel comfortable starting Christian Kirk and A.J. Green as WR3+ options.
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Jets -- I honestly don't know how Miami's backfield will shake out. But will it matter? Myles Gaskin is off the COVID list, though he's no lock to garner his normal workload. The one sure thing, I believe, is DeVante Parker. Very high on him today, and he's in my DFS lineup of the week (publishing on PFN's website later this morning). For the Jets, Michael Carter is back. I'm still debating whether to start him over Devonta Freeman, who I'm starting over A.J. Dillon. Tough decisions. Carter is the wild card in the Jets' offense in his first game back.
Giants (+11.5) vs. Cowboys -- Saquon Barkley has looked better than Zeke Elliott, and the Giants' defense has been, on the whole, quite decent. We have to believe Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, or even Darius Slayton can get 8+ fantasy points. The question is who. And is Zeke a must-start RB? I'm not high on him.
Steelers (-1.5) vs. Titans -- Big Ben and Diontae Johnson are also in my DFS lineup today. Expecting 40+ fantasy points between the two. Tennessee is brutal against the run, so keep expectations in check for Najee Harris. And Julio Jones is the wild card for the Titans, while D'Onta Foreman -- my pick to lead this backfield when Derrick Henry went down -- is now a highly risky RB3/4 in an unfavorable matchup.
Jaguars (-4.5) vs. Texans -- In their first game post-Urban Meyer, James Robinson should be in all fantasy lineups, and Trevor Lawrence should get some mileage as a fantasy streamer. For Houston, David Johnson and Royce Freeman need receptions to gain some streaming attention, and there's good reason to believe they'll both come through.
Bengals (+3) @ Broncos -- Ths is a tough game to figure out. If I trusted Teddy Bridgewater more, I'd take Denver. But then again, if Vegas trusted Bridgewater more, the point spread would be 3-5 points higher. I like Joe Burrow getting on track with his excellent receiving corps, and of course Denver will feature two must-start fantasy RBs, as usual.
49ers (-9.5) vs. Falcons -- This matchup between a 7-6 team and 6-7 team will be lopsided, I believe. The Niners by 18+ points. Three of them are in my DFS lineup. Jeff Wilson will be better than most people expect. And aside from Cordarrelle Patterson, the question is whether Mike Davis, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage will get 10+ points. All three can do it, and if game script follows expectations, Matt Ryan will be forced to pass, helping all three Falcons achieve streamability.
Ravens (+7) vs. Packers -- I'm surprised by this point spread, though I understand it. Baltimore's run defense is no joke, and their pass defense is the opposite. The biggest question for Baltimore is whether Rashod Bateman continues to assert himself as the present and future No. 1 receiver--something I pushed early this season, and why I warned people to sell high on Marquise Brown. For Green Bay, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon probably will cancel each other out. I'm only trusting Davante Adams in this one.
Buccaneers (-11.5) vs. Saints -- A likely blowout. Somewhat surprising, but not really. The Saints' strength on offense (the run game) plays right into Tampa Bay's strength on defense. Taysom Hill and even Alvin Kamara will disappoint relative to expectations.
Good luck today. Kick butt. And we're here all morning if you want to bounce anything around.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
A big congratulations to Adam Brooks for picking the closest score: 29-21 Colts. Most of you picked the Patriots, so that made my job easier, scanning the page for the small handful of you who believed in some Indianapolis magic (or mostly, Jonathan Taylor magic). I was second closest with a 20-17 guess. But this is Adam's day, so I'll get off the stage.
Since it's after midnight as I'm writing this, a very quick run through today's games, including picking the spreads, which has worked out really well these past three weeks I've been doing it. Let's keep riding the wave 'til it crashes:
Bills (-13.5) vs. Panthers -- I'm expecting a sizable victory for the 7-6 Bills, as they face the prospect of somehow missing the playoffs if they lose this one, because they'll head to New England next week, and I don't see that going well. Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley are solid streamers. For Carolina, I honestly don't trust anyone to get more than nine fantasy points. Buffalo's D/ST is my favorite D/ST of Week 15.
Lions (+12.5) vs. Cardinals -- Can Craig Reynolds do it again? And with T.J. Hockenson out, can Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Josh Reynolds be must-start fantasy options? I'm saying yes to all of it. And for Arizona, I'm very concerned about the injured James Conner's role with Chase Edmonds returning. Meanwhile, I'd feel comfortable starting Christian Kirk and A.J. Green as WR3+ options.
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Jets -- I honestly don't know how Miami's backfield will shake out. But will it matter? Myles Gaskin is off the COVID list, though he's no lock to garner his normal workload. The one sure thing, I believe, is DeVante Parker. Very high on him today, and he's in my DFS lineup of the week (publishing on PFN's website later this morning). For the Jets, Michael Carter is back. I'm still debating whether to start him over Devonta Freeman, who I'm starting over A.J. Dillon. Tough decisions. Carter is the wild card in the Jets' offense in his first game back.
Giants (+11.5) vs. Cowboys -- Saquon Barkley has looked better than Zeke Elliott, and the Giants' defense has been, on the whole, quite decent. We have to believe Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, or even Darius Slayton can get 8+ fantasy points. The question is who. And is Zeke a must-start RB? I'm not high on him.
Steelers (-1.5) vs. Titans -- Big Ben and Diontae Johnson are also in my DFS lineup today. Expecting 40+ fantasy points between the two. Tennessee is brutal against the run, so keep expectations in check for Najee Harris. And Julio Jones is the wild card for the Titans, while D'Onta Foreman -- my pick to lead this backfield when Derrick Henry went down -- is now a highly risky RB3/4 in an unfavorable matchup.
Jaguars (-4.5) vs. Texans -- In their first game post-Urban Meyer, James Robinson should be in all fantasy lineups, and Trevor Lawrence should get some mileage as a fantasy streamer. For Houston, David Johnson and Royce Freeman need receptions to gain some streaming attention, and there's good reason to believe they'll both come through.
Bengals (+3) @ Broncos -- Ths is a tough game to figure out. If I trusted Teddy Bridgewater more, I'd take Denver. But then again, if Vegas trusted Bridgewater more, the point spread would be 3-5 points higher. I like Joe Burrow getting on track with his excellent receiving corps, and of course Denver will feature two must-start fantasy RBs, as usual.
49ers (-9.5) vs. Falcons -- This matchup between a 7-6 team and 6-7 team will be lopsided, I believe. The Niners by 18+ points. Three of them are in my DFS lineup. Jeff Wilson will be better than most people expect. And aside from Cordarrelle Patterson, the question is whether Mike Davis, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage will get 10+ points. All three can do it, and if game script follows expectations, Matt Ryan will be forced to pass, helping all three Falcons achieve streamability.
Ravens (+7) vs. Packers -- I'm surprised by this point spread, though I understand it. Baltimore's run defense is no joke, and their pass defense is the opposite. The biggest question for Baltimore is whether Rashod Bateman continues to assert himself as the present and future No. 1 receiver--something I pushed early this season, and why I warned people to sell high on Marquise Brown. For Green Bay, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon probably will cancel each other out. I'm only trusting Davante Adams in this one.
Buccaneers (-11.5) vs. Saints -- A likely blowout. Somewhat surprising, but not really. The Saints' strength on offense (the run game) plays right into Tampa Bay's strength on defense. Taysom Hill and even Alvin Kamara will disappoint relative to expectations.
Good luck today. Kick butt. And we're here all morning if you want to bounce anything around.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy