Last night, the two healthier teams won. The Bears had 14 players on the COVID list vs. seven for the Vikings. The Browns had 23 on the list vs. one for the Raiders. The NFL often mirrors fantasy, in that the healthier fantasy teams are often at an advantage this late in the season. Not always, but often. It's the nature of things.
Interestingly, Justin Fields was the top fantasy QB of the night with a mere 16.9 fantasy points. Nick Chubb led all running backs with only 16.3 points. The best WR was Justin Jefferson with a modest 14.7 points (the #2 WR was Zay Jones--yes, Zay Jones). And one of the best fantasy plays of the evenings was Foster Moreau (13.5).
Takeaways from last night: Kirk Cousins couldn't capitalize against one of the league's worst pass defenses, while Dalvin Cook sputtered his way to 89 yards on 28 carries--the second-worst YPC of his career (3.2) when he's had more than 20 carries. His worst 20+ carry YPC performance was last year . . . also in Chicago. The worst YPC of his career on 12+ carries was two years ago . . . in Chicago. And the worst YPC of his career, period, was three years ago. In Chicago. So that's something to keep in your back pocket for 2022.
The Bears did adequately. My Monday night DFS lineup (article on PFN's website) hit, despite the fact I chose four Bears. But all four were bargains based on price, with Damiere Byrd asserting himself as a top-3 receiver with Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin sidelined. By my count, seven Chicago drives stalled in Minnesota territory, including five inside the 21-yard line, resulting in only three points. So many fantasy points left on the table. Justin Fields and this offense will figure it out. I'll be targeting him as a draft bargain next summer.
For the Browns, I was surprised that D'Ernest Johnson didn't do more. Had him pegged for 9+ points. He and Demetric Felton combined for 10.1 points. I had not anticipated Felton poaching Johnson. It's also notable that while Nick Mullens didn't get to 10 fantasy points, he turned in the 10th best performance by a Cleveland QB this season, which reinforces how rough it's been for Baker Mayfield (and to a much lesser extent, Case Keenum).
And the Raiders somehow found a way. Derek Carr's two best drives were his first and his last. Everythinng in between was pretty much forgettable. The Browns shut down Hunter Renfrow, leading to 18 combined targets for Zay Jones and Foster Moreau. Most road teams do not win when a tertiary wideout and backup tight end are their leading producers. But whatever it takes to win. Losers of five of six games entering last night, the Raiders remain in the playoff hunt. Facing the Broncos and Colts the next two games, I'm not hopeful about Josh Jacobs being a top-20 RB. He's exceeded 13.5 fantasy points twice in his last seven outings. Hard to bench him in most leagues. But set realistic expectations.
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As for tonight's doubleheader, I'm expecting a 16+ point victory for the Rams. One of the biggest questions in this community is whether to start Sony Michel or Darrell Henderson. Obviously keep following the news, or ping me later if you've been busy, and I'll share anything I've heard. Right now Michel appears to have the edge. I shared on a recent PFN fantasy podcast episode that since the Rams need a healthy backfield for the playoffs, and since Henderson has proven to be a higher-than-normal injury risk, and since Michel has done just fine on his own, there's no urgency to reinstalling Henderson as the bell cow in his first game back. So my money's on Michel.
Elsewhere, trusting Rashaad Penny for 9+ points is tough. He's not catching many balls, capping his ceiling. Against these Rams, I'm not hopeful.
And it's hard to trust any particular Eagle RB, since all four have stepped up at various times this season. Miles Sanders is the seemingly obvious "lead" back, though you're rolling the dice on 12+ points, even for him. If you're torn between Sanders and any other Philly back, definitely go Sanders. Beyond that it's a crapshoot.
Finally, I'm continuing to sound the alarm on Terry McLaurin, something I've been doing for nearly two months. He's boom-bust. At this stage, if you're starting him, then you're starting him. But poor QB play has crushed his consistency. And with J.D. McKissic out, the hope is that Antonio Gibson is a main cog in the passing game. If he is, you're set. If he isn't, then he's another Rashaad Penny. I don't see how Washington keeps this one withing 10 points.
If you need something to happen tonight--whether a 15-point day for Antonio Gibson or a combined 56 from Van Jefferson and the Rams DST--give a shout so we can cheer you on.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Interestingly, Justin Fields was the top fantasy QB of the night with a mere 16.9 fantasy points. Nick Chubb led all running backs with only 16.3 points. The best WR was Justin Jefferson with a modest 14.7 points (the #2 WR was Zay Jones--yes, Zay Jones). And one of the best fantasy plays of the evenings was Foster Moreau (13.5).
Takeaways from last night: Kirk Cousins couldn't capitalize against one of the league's worst pass defenses, while Dalvin Cook sputtered his way to 89 yards on 28 carries--the second-worst YPC of his career (3.2) when he's had more than 20 carries. His worst 20+ carry YPC performance was last year . . . also in Chicago. The worst YPC of his career on 12+ carries was two years ago . . . in Chicago. And the worst YPC of his career, period, was three years ago. In Chicago. So that's something to keep in your back pocket for 2022.
The Bears did adequately. My Monday night DFS lineup (article on PFN's website) hit, despite the fact I chose four Bears. But all four were bargains based on price, with Damiere Byrd asserting himself as a top-3 receiver with Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin sidelined. By my count, seven Chicago drives stalled in Minnesota territory, including five inside the 21-yard line, resulting in only three points. So many fantasy points left on the table. Justin Fields and this offense will figure it out. I'll be targeting him as a draft bargain next summer.
For the Browns, I was surprised that D'Ernest Johnson didn't do more. Had him pegged for 9+ points. He and Demetric Felton combined for 10.1 points. I had not anticipated Felton poaching Johnson. It's also notable that while Nick Mullens didn't get to 10 fantasy points, he turned in the 10th best performance by a Cleveland QB this season, which reinforces how rough it's been for Baker Mayfield (and to a much lesser extent, Case Keenum).
And the Raiders somehow found a way. Derek Carr's two best drives were his first and his last. Everythinng in between was pretty much forgettable. The Browns shut down Hunter Renfrow, leading to 18 combined targets for Zay Jones and Foster Moreau. Most road teams do not win when a tertiary wideout and backup tight end are their leading producers. But whatever it takes to win. Losers of five of six games entering last night, the Raiders remain in the playoff hunt. Facing the Broncos and Colts the next two games, I'm not hopeful about Josh Jacobs being a top-20 RB. He's exceeded 13.5 fantasy points twice in his last seven outings. Hard to bench him in most leagues. But set realistic expectations.
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As for tonight's doubleheader, I'm expecting a 16+ point victory for the Rams. One of the biggest questions in this community is whether to start Sony Michel or Darrell Henderson. Obviously keep following the news, or ping me later if you've been busy, and I'll share anything I've heard. Right now Michel appears to have the edge. I shared on a recent PFN fantasy podcast episode that since the Rams need a healthy backfield for the playoffs, and since Henderson has proven to be a higher-than-normal injury risk, and since Michel has done just fine on his own, there's no urgency to reinstalling Henderson as the bell cow in his first game back. So my money's on Michel.
Elsewhere, trusting Rashaad Penny for 9+ points is tough. He's not catching many balls, capping his ceiling. Against these Rams, I'm not hopeful.
And it's hard to trust any particular Eagle RB, since all four have stepped up at various times this season. Miles Sanders is the seemingly obvious "lead" back, though you're rolling the dice on 12+ points, even for him. If you're torn between Sanders and any other Philly back, definitely go Sanders. Beyond that it's a crapshoot.
Finally, I'm continuing to sound the alarm on Terry McLaurin, something I've been doing for nearly two months. He's boom-bust. At this stage, if you're starting him, then you're starting him. But poor QB play has crushed his consistency. And with J.D. McKissic out, the hope is that Antonio Gibson is a main cog in the passing game. If he is, you're set. If he isn't, then he's another Rashaad Penny. I don't see how Washington keeps this one withing 10 points.
If you need something to happen tonight--whether a 15-point day for Antonio Gibson or a combined 56 from Van Jefferson and the Rams DST--give a shout so we can cheer you on.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy