The past 48 hours in the NFL have been pretty eventful. So many injuries. So many question marks. The law of NFL seasons is that the fantasy universe continually expands, opening the door to more and more players who *might* help our teams. After fantasy drafts and before Week 1, doesn't the waiver wire seem a little slim? It's hard to imagine wanting to add any of them.
So maybe it's not that the fantasy universe expands. Maybe it's that our vision expands. The same players are sitting on waivers. The difference is that we finally can see what they bring to the table. JaMycal Hasty was always looming. But the probabilities of him contributing were low--until they weren't. The same goes for 50 or more seemingly undraftable players. Each one had a path to relevance. Some longer and more circuitous than others. But we can't ignore the fact that these paths exist. Every player has potential value. The only variables are the odds and the upside.
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Tonight's contest sums up the continually evolving fantasy landscape. The host Vikings lost Adam Thielen on Sunday, but as of writing this (just after midnight), Dalvin Cook is questionable to return. If he starts, Cook seemingly would be a must-start, while Alexander Mattison would be a risky RB3 at best. If Cook sits again, Mattison seemingly would be a must-start RB.
But . . . last week I quickly examined some numbers, and they're interesting. This year there have been six 20+ touch Sunday RBs who then played on Thursday. In each case, the RB earned fewer touches and scored fewer fantasy points. The average Sunday touches were 24.5; the average on Thursday was 14.2. Same RB. Different usage. And the drop-off in average fantasy points has been just as significant. These six 20+ touch RBs averaged 22.9 fantasy points on Sunday, and then 9.9 on Thursday. Yes, 9.9. These six RBs were Antonio Gibson, Christian McCaffrey, James Robinson, Michael Carter, Myles Gaskin, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is an outlier because the injured Damien Harris returned for their Thursday game. But the other players simply crashed.
So it'll be interesting to see what Mattison can do if he's starting--if he can be a true statistical outlier.
As for K.J. Osborn, I'd be cautious about believing the hype. Many managers might be excited to stream him, assuming he'll soak up a bunch of Thielen's targets. I think Tyler Conklin and Dede Westbrook stand to benefit as well. Justin Jefferson could tack on another one or two looks. Even C.J. Ham could be a WR4/5 if things break right. A big takeaway is that 14 of Thielen's last 20 touchdowns have come inside the opposing 7-yard line. So Osborn is one of several Vikings with a slightly higher chance of scoring than they did heading into Week 13.
Most notably for Pittsburgh, Chase Claypool is boom-bust without the boom. Maybe 14 points is his realistic upside? And Najee Harris has exceeded 3.5 YPC only once in his last seven games. That's an incredible trend that on the one hand seems meaningless because of his significant reception totals and TD opportunities. But on the other hand, he's not generating much offense on the ground. Also interestingly, in each quarter he's earning successively fewer rushing attempts, but successively more targets. 71% of his catches have come in the second half, almost always when Pittsburgh is trailing. If this game goes as expected, Harris should remain no worse than a top-16 RB.
Final score: Vikings 27-17. Share your start/sit questions, and we'll be sure to answer. Share your final-score prediction, and I'll be sure to mention you tomorrow if you are the most brilliant final-score predictor in this community.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
So maybe it's not that the fantasy universe expands. Maybe it's that our vision expands. The same players are sitting on waivers. The difference is that we finally can see what they bring to the table. JaMycal Hasty was always looming. But the probabilities of him contributing were low--until they weren't. The same goes for 50 or more seemingly undraftable players. Each one had a path to relevance. Some longer and more circuitous than others. But we can't ignore the fact that these paths exist. Every player has potential value. The only variables are the odds and the upside.
---
Tonight's contest sums up the continually evolving fantasy landscape. The host Vikings lost Adam Thielen on Sunday, but as of writing this (just after midnight), Dalvin Cook is questionable to return. If he starts, Cook seemingly would be a must-start, while Alexander Mattison would be a risky RB3 at best. If Cook sits again, Mattison seemingly would be a must-start RB.
But . . . last week I quickly examined some numbers, and they're interesting. This year there have been six 20+ touch Sunday RBs who then played on Thursday. In each case, the RB earned fewer touches and scored fewer fantasy points. The average Sunday touches were 24.5; the average on Thursday was 14.2. Same RB. Different usage. And the drop-off in average fantasy points has been just as significant. These six 20+ touch RBs averaged 22.9 fantasy points on Sunday, and then 9.9 on Thursday. Yes, 9.9. These six RBs were Antonio Gibson, Christian McCaffrey, James Robinson, Michael Carter, Myles Gaskin, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is an outlier because the injured Damien Harris returned for their Thursday game. But the other players simply crashed.
So it'll be interesting to see what Mattison can do if he's starting--if he can be a true statistical outlier.
As for K.J. Osborn, I'd be cautious about believing the hype. Many managers might be excited to stream him, assuming he'll soak up a bunch of Thielen's targets. I think Tyler Conklin and Dede Westbrook stand to benefit as well. Justin Jefferson could tack on another one or two looks. Even C.J. Ham could be a WR4/5 if things break right. A big takeaway is that 14 of Thielen's last 20 touchdowns have come inside the opposing 7-yard line. So Osborn is one of several Vikings with a slightly higher chance of scoring than they did heading into Week 13.
Most notably for Pittsburgh, Chase Claypool is boom-bust without the boom. Maybe 14 points is his realistic upside? And Najee Harris has exceeded 3.5 YPC only once in his last seven games. That's an incredible trend that on the one hand seems meaningless because of his significant reception totals and TD opportunities. But on the other hand, he's not generating much offense on the ground. Also interestingly, in each quarter he's earning successively fewer rushing attempts, but successively more targets. 71% of his catches have come in the second half, almost always when Pittsburgh is trailing. If this game goes as expected, Harris should remain no worse than a top-16 RB.
Final score: Vikings 27-17. Share your start/sit questions, and we'll be sure to answer. Share your final-score prediction, and I'll be sure to mention you tomorrow if you are the most brilliant final-score predictor in this community.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy