During the recording of yesterday's PFN fantasy podcast, my colleague Tommy Garrett messaged me that Keenan Allen was out for Week 14. A few minutes later, our producer Cody Roark messaged us that T.J. Hockenson was likely out. This is the 2021 NFL season in a nutshell.
So heading into the all-important Sunday games, here's how I think game scripts will impact fantasy production. And since I'm 15-8 on picking the spreads the past two Sundays, I'll keep doing it 'til my luck runs out:
Browns (-3) vs. Ravens -- Baltimore is beatable through the air, but not so easy to conquer on the ground. Still, Cleveland is not built to win in the passing game. I like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt pushing their way to 35+ combined touches. Jarvis Landry should be in starting lineups, and Austin Hooper (2.3 receptions per game) should have one of his best games of the season, finally helping to justify his huge contract. For the Ravens, expect another sub-20-point fantasy effort for Lamar Jackson. I'm fading the backfield. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews remain startable out of necessity; the Ravens will generate some offense. But I'd be shocked if these two teams combine for more than 38 points.
Titans (-8.5) vs. Jaguars -- What impact will the return of Jeremy McNichols have? Probably not much. This remains a likely Dontrell Hilliard / D'Onta Foreman backfield. The Jags aren't bad against the run, so both are reasonable streamers, and I prefer Foreman for ceiling. Also keep an eye on Julio Jones's potential return; I'd be thrilled to start him as a boom-bust receiver with top-20 upside. Ryan Tannehill desperately needs him. And I can't imagine starting any Jaguar except maybe James Robinson, although he's not a lock to finish as an RB2. The rest of their receivers are coin flips, sadly.
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders -- I'd like to believe Las Vegas can keep this game close. But I'm anticipating huge days for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce: 20+ fantasy points for each. Yes, 20+. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be viewed as an RB2+. Darrel Williams will get some run if it's a blowout. For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs could get game-scripted out of this one. Hunter Renfrow is the only relatively safe fantasy starter. Jacobs is probably an RB2/3.
Saints (-5.5) @ Jets -- The challenge for the Jets is that the Saints have a tough run defense, Zach Wilson is mistake-prone, and Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman are out. Elijah Mitchell is a question mark as of writing this. Who can the Jets trot out to keep up with Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara? Jamison Crowder would be the one potential streamer if Moore sits. For New Orleans, I'd start Kamara with confidence and, if he returns, Mark Ingram with semi-confidence as an RB3. Hill should be viewed as a 17+ point option, though I'll be curious how his rushing game is impacted by Kamara, and vice versa.
Dallas (-4.5) @ Washington -- I seem to be picking a lot of favorites, which might not be a good thing. Still, I can't imagine Dak Prescott and the Cowboys crashing against Washington in a game that could almost lock up a playoff berth. With Tony Pollard unlikely to play at this point, Zeke Elliott is a must-start despite his seemingly low ceiling, as receptions should help carry him to top-28 production, with a shot at top-20 if he looks any better than he has in recent weeks. All the usual receivers should be fine. I love Dalton Schultz if Pollard sits. For Washington, as I've been saying for weeks, Terry McLaurin is as risky as any team's No. 1 receiver. His floor is around a WR5/6, as it's been most games the past couple months. Start him for ceiling, obviously. But brace for anything. Antonio Gibson seems reliable. Ricky Seals-Jones is a wild card in his first game back.
Panthers (-2.5) vs. Falcons -- Atlanta can't stop anyone. Cam Newton is highly risky. But I'd start Cam as a top-12 QB this week because of the matchup. Chuba Hubbard is far riskier, as we don't know what role Ameer Abdullah will play. D.J. Moore seems safe. Robby Anderson is never safe in 2021, though he has breakout potential because, again, it's the Falcons. For Atlanta, besides Cordarrelle Patterson, it gets a little tricky. Kyle Pitts' floor is around eight points, and we haven't seen a consistent TE1 ceiling from him since Calvin Ridley stepped away. And Russell Gage is a longshot to crack 12 points after two stellar weeks.
Texans (+8.5) vs. Seahawks -- My first underdog pick, and I remain unsure about it. "Can any Texan score double-digit fantasy points Sunday?" That's what I asked Tommy on Friday's podcast. He agreed with where I was going with this question. We can't trust anyone. Yet Seattle's defense is lacking. So we have to believe someone will break through. A healthy Brandin Cooks or David Johnson could produce, depending on targets. Beyond them, it's hard to envision someone stepping up. And aside from Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf, I can't buy into any Seahawk. Maybe Gerald Everett. But we know the risks. Houston realistically could steal this one.
Broncos (-10) vs. Lions -- Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should combine for 30+ fantasy points. The question is whether Gordon will be relegated to the 1B role. He probably should be, but Denver might see it differently. And I have to believe this will be a get-right game for one or more receivers. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are the best candidates, with Tim Patrick always looming. I'm debating whether to start Sutton or Jalen Guyton. Open to your suggestions. And for Detroit, no Jamaal Williams means plenty of Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. Jefferson was my final draft pick this season, and also my first drop. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are the only potential streamers from what I can tell.
Chargers (-10) vs. Giants -- Even without Keenan Allen, L.A. should reach 30+ points. Guyton and Josh Palmer are the wild cards. We should assume at least one will pull a K.J. Osborn and be startable. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley remains an enigma; I still can't trust him as an RB2+. Credit to my opponent this week for picking up the Chargers DST, which could crack 16 points with Mike Glennon at QB.
Bengals (+1.5) vs. 49ers -- If anyone knows why San Francisco is favored, please share. Despite a pinky finger injury, Joe Burrow and the Bengals should take this one. Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will combine for 35+ touches if needed. We could see plenty of Burrow dump-offs. All three of his wideouts are risky, in the sense that we don't know how well Burrow can throw. But if you've come this far with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins (leaving out Tyler Boyd for now), I would start them for their ceilings. And Jeff Wilson could get the first crack in the Niners' backfield, though JaMycal Hasty cannot be ignored. It's a tough RB situation to figure out, though my opponent is betting on Wilson, which might be a savvy move. At this time, we don't know if Deebo Samuel will return. I expect Brandon Aiyuk to bounce back regardless.
Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Bills -- Aside from the obvious five must-start players, maybe Cameron Brate gets a cheap score. Otherwise, you know what to do with Tampa Bay, even against a stifling Buffalo defense. And when the Bills beat the Dolphins for the second time this year, they went up 4 1/2 games on Miami. If they lose today, their lead will be down to one game, and they might even be on the outside of the playoff bubble. What a dramatic collapse for a former clear-cut Super Bowl contender. Their running game is a mess and cannot be trusted. Their path to victory will be through the air, so I'm anticipating a long-awaited rebound from Emmanuel Sanders or Cole Beasley; take your pick. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are obvious starts, while Dawson Knox remains entirely TD-dependent.
Packers (-12.5) vs. Bears -- You've heard me say this again and again this season, including back when it sounded insane at the beginning of the year: A.J. Dillon will turn the Packers' backfield into a timeshare. As unimaginable as it once seemed, talent often wins, and Dillon is loaded with talent. I'm starting him this week. Hard to know whether he or Jones will be better. If I could start both and lock in 28+ combined points, I would. In the passing game, MVS is the wild card. Boom-bust, as always. For Chicago, David Montgomery remains underappreciated, though this matchup isn't favorable, and Justin Fields' return raises more questions. I'd fade everyone except Montgomery, whose floor is too friendly to pass up.
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So heading into the all-important Sunday games, here's how I think game scripts will impact fantasy production. And since I'm 15-8 on picking the spreads the past two Sundays, I'll keep doing it 'til my luck runs out:
Browns (-3) vs. Ravens -- Baltimore is beatable through the air, but not so easy to conquer on the ground. Still, Cleveland is not built to win in the passing game. I like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt pushing their way to 35+ combined touches. Jarvis Landry should be in starting lineups, and Austin Hooper (2.3 receptions per game) should have one of his best games of the season, finally helping to justify his huge contract. For the Ravens, expect another sub-20-point fantasy effort for Lamar Jackson. I'm fading the backfield. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews remain startable out of necessity; the Ravens will generate some offense. But I'd be shocked if these two teams combine for more than 38 points.
Titans (-8.5) vs. Jaguars -- What impact will the return of Jeremy McNichols have? Probably not much. This remains a likely Dontrell Hilliard / D'Onta Foreman backfield. The Jags aren't bad against the run, so both are reasonable streamers, and I prefer Foreman for ceiling. Also keep an eye on Julio Jones's potential return; I'd be thrilled to start him as a boom-bust receiver with top-20 upside. Ryan Tannehill desperately needs him. And I can't imagine starting any Jaguar except maybe James Robinson, although he's not a lock to finish as an RB2. The rest of their receivers are coin flips, sadly.
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders -- I'd like to believe Las Vegas can keep this game close. But I'm anticipating huge days for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce: 20+ fantasy points for each. Yes, 20+. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be viewed as an RB2+. Darrel Williams will get some run if it's a blowout. For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs could get game-scripted out of this one. Hunter Renfrow is the only relatively safe fantasy starter. Jacobs is probably an RB2/3.
Saints (-5.5) @ Jets -- The challenge for the Jets is that the Saints have a tough run defense, Zach Wilson is mistake-prone, and Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman are out. Elijah Mitchell is a question mark as of writing this. Who can the Jets trot out to keep up with Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara? Jamison Crowder would be the one potential streamer if Moore sits. For New Orleans, I'd start Kamara with confidence and, if he returns, Mark Ingram with semi-confidence as an RB3. Hill should be viewed as a 17+ point option, though I'll be curious how his rushing game is impacted by Kamara, and vice versa.
Dallas (-4.5) @ Washington -- I seem to be picking a lot of favorites, which might not be a good thing. Still, I can't imagine Dak Prescott and the Cowboys crashing against Washington in a game that could almost lock up a playoff berth. With Tony Pollard unlikely to play at this point, Zeke Elliott is a must-start despite his seemingly low ceiling, as receptions should help carry him to top-28 production, with a shot at top-20 if he looks any better than he has in recent weeks. All the usual receivers should be fine. I love Dalton Schultz if Pollard sits. For Washington, as I've been saying for weeks, Terry McLaurin is as risky as any team's No. 1 receiver. His floor is around a WR5/6, as it's been most games the past couple months. Start him for ceiling, obviously. But brace for anything. Antonio Gibson seems reliable. Ricky Seals-Jones is a wild card in his first game back.
Panthers (-2.5) vs. Falcons -- Atlanta can't stop anyone. Cam Newton is highly risky. But I'd start Cam as a top-12 QB this week because of the matchup. Chuba Hubbard is far riskier, as we don't know what role Ameer Abdullah will play. D.J. Moore seems safe. Robby Anderson is never safe in 2021, though he has breakout potential because, again, it's the Falcons. For Atlanta, besides Cordarrelle Patterson, it gets a little tricky. Kyle Pitts' floor is around eight points, and we haven't seen a consistent TE1 ceiling from him since Calvin Ridley stepped away. And Russell Gage is a longshot to crack 12 points after two stellar weeks.
Texans (+8.5) vs. Seahawks -- My first underdog pick, and I remain unsure about it. "Can any Texan score double-digit fantasy points Sunday?" That's what I asked Tommy on Friday's podcast. He agreed with where I was going with this question. We can't trust anyone. Yet Seattle's defense is lacking. So we have to believe someone will break through. A healthy Brandin Cooks or David Johnson could produce, depending on targets. Beyond them, it's hard to envision someone stepping up. And aside from Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf, I can't buy into any Seahawk. Maybe Gerald Everett. But we know the risks. Houston realistically could steal this one.
Broncos (-10) vs. Lions -- Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should combine for 30+ fantasy points. The question is whether Gordon will be relegated to the 1B role. He probably should be, but Denver might see it differently. And I have to believe this will be a get-right game for one or more receivers. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are the best candidates, with Tim Patrick always looming. I'm debating whether to start Sutton or Jalen Guyton. Open to your suggestions. And for Detroit, no Jamaal Williams means plenty of Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. Jefferson was my final draft pick this season, and also my first drop. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are the only potential streamers from what I can tell.
Chargers (-10) vs. Giants -- Even without Keenan Allen, L.A. should reach 30+ points. Guyton and Josh Palmer are the wild cards. We should assume at least one will pull a K.J. Osborn and be startable. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley remains an enigma; I still can't trust him as an RB2+. Credit to my opponent this week for picking up the Chargers DST, which could crack 16 points with Mike Glennon at QB.
Bengals (+1.5) vs. 49ers -- If anyone knows why San Francisco is favored, please share. Despite a pinky finger injury, Joe Burrow and the Bengals should take this one. Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will combine for 35+ touches if needed. We could see plenty of Burrow dump-offs. All three of his wideouts are risky, in the sense that we don't know how well Burrow can throw. But if you've come this far with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins (leaving out Tyler Boyd for now), I would start them for their ceilings. And Jeff Wilson could get the first crack in the Niners' backfield, though JaMycal Hasty cannot be ignored. It's a tough RB situation to figure out, though my opponent is betting on Wilson, which might be a savvy move. At this time, we don't know if Deebo Samuel will return. I expect Brandon Aiyuk to bounce back regardless.
Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Bills -- Aside from the obvious five must-start players, maybe Cameron Brate gets a cheap score. Otherwise, you know what to do with Tampa Bay, even against a stifling Buffalo defense. And when the Bills beat the Dolphins for the second time this year, they went up 4 1/2 games on Miami. If they lose today, their lead will be down to one game, and they might even be on the outside of the playoff bubble. What a dramatic collapse for a former clear-cut Super Bowl contender. Their running game is a mess and cannot be trusted. Their path to victory will be through the air, so I'm anticipating a long-awaited rebound from Emmanuel Sanders or Cole Beasley; take your pick. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are obvious starts, while Dawson Knox remains entirely TD-dependent.
Packers (-12.5) vs. Bears -- You've heard me say this again and again this season, including back when it sounded insane at the beginning of the year: A.J. Dillon will turn the Packers' backfield into a timeshare. As unimaginable as it once seemed, talent often wins, and Dillon is loaded with talent. I'm starting him this week. Hard to know whether he or Jones will be better. If I could start both and lock in 28+ combined points, I would. In the passing game, MVS is the wild card. Boom-bust, as always. For Chicago, David Montgomery remains underappreciated, though this matchup isn't favorable, and Justin Fields' return raises more questions. I'd fade everyone except Montgomery, whose floor is too friendly to pass up.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy