For a while last night I thought the game might remain scoreless until overtime. The Saints' defense is better than how they've played (no thanks to an often stagnant offense), and the Cowboys' defense is terrific (and helped by a mistake-prone Saints offense). So, a perfect storm of defensive prowess.
But most of us needed more than a defensive showdown. I would bet most of us started at least one player last night, and some of you might have had two or three. What can we take away from this? Because obviously one game doesn't dictate what's to come. But with the fantasy regular season winding down, many of us need answers ASAP.
For Dallas, all credit to Tony Pollard for that amazing TD run. Outside of that, New Orleans held Pollard and Zeke Elliott to a combined 58 rushing yards on 19 carries (3.1 YPC). Looking ahead to games in Washington and at the Giants, it's fair to wonder if Zeke will be rested, or at the very least, on a rigid snap count. His knee is still bothering him. They'll need him for the playoffs, which would be a near-certainty if they win next weekend. If you have Zeke (Doug, I'm looking at you), it's a concerning situation, especially with Pollard now averaging 5.7 YPC and clearly looking like their most talented (healthy) back. Admittedly, I advised one of you to start Zeke over Pollard last night. That won't be the case in Week 14.
Elsewhere, Dak Prescott was Dak Prescott. Some throws appeared to be significant miscommunications with receivers, and other throws were picture-perfect. Fantasy managers have to be frustrated with his second unstartable game in his last three contests. But this is a rough stretch: four pretty tough road games in five weeks. If you can weather the storm until Week 16, he should finish on a high at home versus Washington and then Arizona (and the Eagles if your league demands that you compete in Week 18).
CeeDee Lamb (who I started against my brutally tough opponent, Johnny Green) came through. Amari Cooper still wasn't 100%, but we have to believe he'll be back to full health by next weekend. The problem is that we've seen very little of "good Amari" this season, no thanks to a nagging hamstring injury for much of the year. If you sit him next week, you won't be alone. But he's always a decent bet for 18+ points. So that's the risk you run if it's his turn to go off. Michael Gallup was the clear #2 receiver with Amari hobbled. If you're in a league whose trade deadline hasn't passed, it could be a great time to sell high on Gallup to lock in more reliable WR3+ production, assuming Amari will reclaim his top-2 role by Week 14.
For the Saints, I kept going back and forth with Mark Ingram before the game. Sometimes I felt more bullish. Other times (i.e. five minutes later), I was second-guessing myself. Through it all, I kept thinking it would come down to receptions and a goal-line carry--that those factors would define Ingram's evening. He had only one catch and never touched the ball near the end zone. And that was that for someone who, at first and second glance, appeared to be a pretty high-floor RB. I did Tweet out a recommendation to start Ty Montgomery as an RB4+ once Tony Jones was declared inactive. He produced seven fantasy points, which amounts to borderline RB3/4 numbers. So congrats to those who had no one better to start and took the leap.
And Taysom Hill: wow, a tale of two quarterbacks in one body. He should have rushed it 20+ times. Dallas could not stop him. But every time he reverted to pocket-passer mode, there was an air of impending doom. Hurting his finger early on didn't help. This might not be fair to say, but he went from a QB2 to a QB1 in 10 seconds on his final throw. After the Jets next weekend, he'll close the season with the Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, and then the Falcons in Week 18. This is not someone you want to rely on for QB1 production down the stretch, even when Alvin Kamara returns. I think 16 points is reasonable. 20+ seems tough unless he's airing it out a bunch in garbage time. We'll see.
And how cool was it to see Hill go back to Deonte Harris on that 70-yard TD one play after Harris dropped a pass. I like seeing quarterbacks trust their receivers. Like every other New Orleans receiver, Harris is a weekly dart throw. There's no need to rush out an add him off waivers unless you really, really like gambling.
Finally, the winner of the closest-score contest. But first, I recommended the under (47.5) and taking Dallas against the spread (-4), with a final score of 23-16 (vs. 27-17). So that's worth something, though my family would politely disagree.
OK, now to the winner. But first, I was out for a run early yesterday morning, and I see Barry Surber was the first to guess. And I started to reply something like, "We already have a winner!" Because it was something like 6:02am, and a lot of things make me laugh at 6:02am, even when they're not funny. But Barry gets an honorable mention for guessing 28-17, and a special honorable-honorable mention for predicting it before sunrise. Other honorable mentions include Bob Bopp and Yemi Onibokun (27-20), Rich Paul (28-16), Chris Polen (27-16), Jeremy Milbrandt (24-17), Jeff Laboda and Andrew French (31-17), Jeremy Thompson (30-16), Tom Windedahl Jr. (28-13), and PFN's Jon Helmcamp (30-17).
That was easily a record for most honorable mentions. But all of them came so close, so it's hard to leave any of them out.
And incredibly, six of you picked the score on the nose. A huge congrats to Greg Slack, Tyler Nelson, Mike Hoff, Adam Noslekim, Rick Esterly (from what I can remembrer, a two-time winner!), and PFN's Tommy Garrett. Really, an amazing collection of brilliant people.
To the handful of you I didn't mention, no more winging it. On Monday I expect you to bring your A games and really focus. Do what Barry did and wake up at 4:00am to study injury reports and the nighttime sky to come up with a winning score.
Have a great Friday.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
But most of us needed more than a defensive showdown. I would bet most of us started at least one player last night, and some of you might have had two or three. What can we take away from this? Because obviously one game doesn't dictate what's to come. But with the fantasy regular season winding down, many of us need answers ASAP.
For Dallas, all credit to Tony Pollard for that amazing TD run. Outside of that, New Orleans held Pollard and Zeke Elliott to a combined 58 rushing yards on 19 carries (3.1 YPC). Looking ahead to games in Washington and at the Giants, it's fair to wonder if Zeke will be rested, or at the very least, on a rigid snap count. His knee is still bothering him. They'll need him for the playoffs, which would be a near-certainty if they win next weekend. If you have Zeke (Doug, I'm looking at you), it's a concerning situation, especially with Pollard now averaging 5.7 YPC and clearly looking like their most talented (healthy) back. Admittedly, I advised one of you to start Zeke over Pollard last night. That won't be the case in Week 14.
Elsewhere, Dak Prescott was Dak Prescott. Some throws appeared to be significant miscommunications with receivers, and other throws were picture-perfect. Fantasy managers have to be frustrated with his second unstartable game in his last three contests. But this is a rough stretch: four pretty tough road games in five weeks. If you can weather the storm until Week 16, he should finish on a high at home versus Washington and then Arizona (and the Eagles if your league demands that you compete in Week 18).
CeeDee Lamb (who I started against my brutally tough opponent, Johnny Green) came through. Amari Cooper still wasn't 100%, but we have to believe he'll be back to full health by next weekend. The problem is that we've seen very little of "good Amari" this season, no thanks to a nagging hamstring injury for much of the year. If you sit him next week, you won't be alone. But he's always a decent bet for 18+ points. So that's the risk you run if it's his turn to go off. Michael Gallup was the clear #2 receiver with Amari hobbled. If you're in a league whose trade deadline hasn't passed, it could be a great time to sell high on Gallup to lock in more reliable WR3+ production, assuming Amari will reclaim his top-2 role by Week 14.
For the Saints, I kept going back and forth with Mark Ingram before the game. Sometimes I felt more bullish. Other times (i.e. five minutes later), I was second-guessing myself. Through it all, I kept thinking it would come down to receptions and a goal-line carry--that those factors would define Ingram's evening. He had only one catch and never touched the ball near the end zone. And that was that for someone who, at first and second glance, appeared to be a pretty high-floor RB. I did Tweet out a recommendation to start Ty Montgomery as an RB4+ once Tony Jones was declared inactive. He produced seven fantasy points, which amounts to borderline RB3/4 numbers. So congrats to those who had no one better to start and took the leap.
And Taysom Hill: wow, a tale of two quarterbacks in one body. He should have rushed it 20+ times. Dallas could not stop him. But every time he reverted to pocket-passer mode, there was an air of impending doom. Hurting his finger early on didn't help. This might not be fair to say, but he went from a QB2 to a QB1 in 10 seconds on his final throw. After the Jets next weekend, he'll close the season with the Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, and then the Falcons in Week 18. This is not someone you want to rely on for QB1 production down the stretch, even when Alvin Kamara returns. I think 16 points is reasonable. 20+ seems tough unless he's airing it out a bunch in garbage time. We'll see.
And how cool was it to see Hill go back to Deonte Harris on that 70-yard TD one play after Harris dropped a pass. I like seeing quarterbacks trust their receivers. Like every other New Orleans receiver, Harris is a weekly dart throw. There's no need to rush out an add him off waivers unless you really, really like gambling.
Finally, the winner of the closest-score contest. But first, I recommended the under (47.5) and taking Dallas against the spread (-4), with a final score of 23-16 (vs. 27-17). So that's worth something, though my family would politely disagree.
OK, now to the winner. But first, I was out for a run early yesterday morning, and I see Barry Surber was the first to guess. And I started to reply something like, "We already have a winner!" Because it was something like 6:02am, and a lot of things make me laugh at 6:02am, even when they're not funny. But Barry gets an honorable mention for guessing 28-17, and a special honorable-honorable mention for predicting it before sunrise. Other honorable mentions include Bob Bopp and Yemi Onibokun (27-20), Rich Paul (28-16), Chris Polen (27-16), Jeremy Milbrandt (24-17), Jeff Laboda and Andrew French (31-17), Jeremy Thompson (30-16), Tom Windedahl Jr. (28-13), and PFN's Jon Helmcamp (30-17).
That was easily a record for most honorable mentions. But all of them came so close, so it's hard to leave any of them out.
And incredibly, six of you picked the score on the nose. A huge congrats to Greg Slack, Tyler Nelson, Mike Hoff, Adam Noslekim, Rick Esterly (from what I can remembrer, a two-time winner!), and PFN's Tommy Garrett. Really, an amazing collection of brilliant people.
To the handful of you I didn't mention, no more winging it. On Monday I expect you to bring your A games and really focus. Do what Barry did and wake up at 4:00am to study injury reports and the nighttime sky to come up with a winning score.
Have a great Friday.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy