Pretty sure I've shared this before with you all, and it bears repeating. My varied approach to fantasy prognosticating continually evolves and hopefully improves. Even after winning national tournaments, I've never felt like an expert. It is a constant battle to learn more of the helpful stuff and part ways with the useless or misleading stuff--and to know the difference between the two. Because sometimes a system might seem viable when it works, only to discover it works *in spite of* the system. And only when we're unsuccessful do we realize the system needs improvements.
But Oone approach I consistently use, and which seems to work pretty well, is mapping out the most likely scenarios for each contest. My Monday and Thursday posts describing how I think the MNF and TNF games will go, and which players will benefit, feeds into my player values.
My league opponents have witnessed (if they noticed, and I don't blame them if they didn't), that three times this season I've traded for a player who then scored 30+ fantasy points. I game-scripted the likely scenarios, identified which guys had higher probabilities for breakouts, and then initiated trade discussions with opponents. Sometimes things work out perfectly. Other times, obviously, they don't. But on balance, I've come out ahead. So that's why I share my game-script thinking as much as possible on this page, because I think it's more useful than continually saying, "Player A got eight targets last week, so he should be good this week." I mean, that's important context. But we need to think deeper.
So here are my quick thoughts on tomorrow's games--how I'm assessing game scripts and fantasy impacts. I've included the point spread for each and which team I think will cover, for those who are interested. I used to do this in the 1980's and decided last Sunday morning to try it again, literally for the first time in over 30 years, and went 7-4. So let's see if the old magic is still there.
Vikings (-7.5) @ Lions -- It would be a shock if Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen didn't crush it. That makes Kirk Cousins a top-12 QB and TE Tyler Conklin an underappreciated streamer. For Detroit, Jamaal Williams' value hingest on receptions, which he should get. We'll see if Jared Goff's chemistry with Josh Reynolds is for real. T.J. Hockenson needs to be started, as usual, despite the all-too-often disappointing numbers. Williams is really the wild card here. 65 total yards with four receptions seems pretty realistic.
Buccaneers (-11) @ Falcons -- Seems like a lot of points, but Atlanta hasn't done much unless Cordarrelle Patterson is doing it. The normal Bucs are must-starts, so no surprises here. PFN fantasy newsletter subscribers will read my concerns about Tom Brady tomorrow morning. But it's hard to imagine him disappointing in this ideal matchup. And Atlanta simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up. Kyle Pitts is another player featured in tomorrow's newsletter; as with Brady, the stats I share might shock you. Only Patterson is a must-start. Pitts is a "I have to start him, but wish I had someone more reliable" TE.
Colts (-9) @ Texans -- Again, no surprises here. You know which Colts to start. T.Y. Hilton was the WR-28 last week, so he's a decent desperation streamer who should be available in a lot of leagues. For Houston, David Johnson is questions, and if he's out or limited, Rex Burkhead will be on the RB3+ map. Can't believe I'm writing that, but it's true. And aside from Brandin Cooks, we can't trust any Houston receiver. Tyrod Taylor will need to throw more than he should be, and that's not a good thing.
Bears (+8) vs. Cardinals -- When will David Montgomery get going? And will Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins play, and be at least close to 100%? Too many question marks, some completely unanswerable on an early Saturday morning. But for now, it's fair to wonder if Montgomery will be eased to the side a bit if he starts slow. The boom is there, and so is the best, because Khalil Herbert is capable of carrying the load. I'm also eyeing Cole Kmet if he's good to go. For the Cardinals, again, chaos at the moment. But I think Chicago slows them down, including the overvalued James Conner.
Bengals (-3) vs. Chargers -- If you're a Cincy fan, there's a lot to be excited about. Ja'Marr Chase is due, but the Chargers are far more beatable on the ground. So if the Bengals go conservative with a heavy dose of Joe Mixon and a little Samaje Perine, many fantasy managers relying on points from the passing game will suffer. I like Chase breaking through, and I'm personally stacking Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the belief Cincy's pretty solid run defense and capable offense will force Justin Herbert to play from behind in the second half.
Dolphins (-4) vs. Giants -- Two teams going in opposite directions. We can trust Myles Gaskin (somewhat) and Jaylen Waddle (a lot). Beyond that, Tua Tagovailoa has been far better on the field than in fantasy, and Mike Gesicki is a higher-risk option than most TE1s. But I expect Miami to maintain a solid lead in this one. The less-than-100% Saquon Barkley hasn't shown much the last two seasons to warrant starting confidently, and the passing attack is painful to watch. Mike Glennon replacing the injured Daniel Jones probably won't help.
Eagles (-7) @ Jets -- If anyone besides Zach Wilson were starting, I'd take the Jets to cover. But then again, if anyone besides Wilson were starting, the spread would be narrower. Expect a lot of Miles Sanders (and some Boston Scott if he plays). Major question marks surrounding Jalen Hurts' availability, as well as his usefulness if he plays. Gardner Minshew would be a fascinating streamer if Hurts sits. DeVonta Smith is worth starting, as expected. But again, starting Philly RBs should be a safe route. For the Jets, Elijah Moore is the best option, and the three-headed backfield should be avoided.
Raiders (-2.5) vs. Washington -- Two of the harder teams to figure out this season. Are they better or worse than they should be? For the Raiders, at this moment Josh Jacobs is questionable, so of course monitor this closely. Hunter Renfrow is the only safe receiver. Derek Carr should get back on track. I'm closely watching Bryan Edwards, who should be more involved, and I'm not sure what's going on. And Foster Moreau is a realistic TE1 in place of Darren Waller. For Washington, J.D. McKissic's absence and Antonio Gibson's seven receptions last week suggest we'll see a heavy dose of Gibson (25+ touches?). Terry McLaurin has been a WR4 more weeks than a WR3+ this year, as strange as that sounds. Beware this passing game; I honestly am not trusting anyone, though we have to start Terry given his ceiling.
Rams (-13) Jaguars -- Jacksonville beating Buffalo was insane. If they beat the Rams on the road, I'll collapse in confusion. The fact is, L.A. should dominate. Darrell Henderson comes in questionable, meaning Sony Michel should see enough work regardless, assuming game script gives his team the big lead they should have. OBJ is also questionable, so Van Jefferson is an easier must-start. And Tyler Higbee is a solid streamer. For the Jags, do we even start James Robinson? Suppose most of us have to. But it probably won't be fun against one of the league's top run D's. I can easily see the Rams DST piling up 20+ points.
Ravens (+4.5) @ Steelers -- As shared on Friday's podcast, I think Pittsburgh will win this, but I also think it will be close. Some of you know my recent concerns about Najee Harris as a locked-in RB1, and that should be reinforced tomorrow. Big Ben is undervalued. Lamar Jackson will need to carry Baltimore, as I still don't trust their backfield unless Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray scores. And we know what Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews can do. I thought Rashod Bateman would leapfrog Brown this season and was clearly wrong.
Seahawks (-3) vs. 49ers -- If I trusted Jimmy G. more, I'd take the Niners. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are safe plays, and of course I was completely wrong about Elijah Mitchell. But I like Seattle's offense getting back on track, as they give up on their anemic run game (does any other NFL team have four sub-par RBs and no one better?). Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett all need to be in starting lineups
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos -- A large spread, but I think Kansas City can handle it. Tried trading for Patrick Mahomes last week, and no luck for good reason. All the usual Chiefs are startable, of course. CEH is questionable, but it appears he's the unquestioned lead back until further notice, rendering Darrel Williams an afterthought. I also like Mecole Hardman as a streamer. The Chiefs should score 30+. For Denver, Javonte Williams finally has a clear lane, figuratively if not literally. With Melvin Gordon doubtful, Williams carries RB1 potential, though I think RB2 is more realistic, as game script should force Teddy Bridgewater to throw too much. Courtland Sutton is destined to be more than a WR8; tomorrow he's my favorite WR of their "Big 3."
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
But Oone approach I consistently use, and which seems to work pretty well, is mapping out the most likely scenarios for each contest. My Monday and Thursday posts describing how I think the MNF and TNF games will go, and which players will benefit, feeds into my player values.
My league opponents have witnessed (if they noticed, and I don't blame them if they didn't), that three times this season I've traded for a player who then scored 30+ fantasy points. I game-scripted the likely scenarios, identified which guys had higher probabilities for breakouts, and then initiated trade discussions with opponents. Sometimes things work out perfectly. Other times, obviously, they don't. But on balance, I've come out ahead. So that's why I share my game-script thinking as much as possible on this page, because I think it's more useful than continually saying, "Player A got eight targets last week, so he should be good this week." I mean, that's important context. But we need to think deeper.
So here are my quick thoughts on tomorrow's games--how I'm assessing game scripts and fantasy impacts. I've included the point spread for each and which team I think will cover, for those who are interested. I used to do this in the 1980's and decided last Sunday morning to try it again, literally for the first time in over 30 years, and went 7-4. So let's see if the old magic is still there.
Vikings (-7.5) @ Lions -- It would be a shock if Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen didn't crush it. That makes Kirk Cousins a top-12 QB and TE Tyler Conklin an underappreciated streamer. For Detroit, Jamaal Williams' value hingest on receptions, which he should get. We'll see if Jared Goff's chemistry with Josh Reynolds is for real. T.J. Hockenson needs to be started, as usual, despite the all-too-often disappointing numbers. Williams is really the wild card here. 65 total yards with four receptions seems pretty realistic.
Buccaneers (-11) @ Falcons -- Seems like a lot of points, but Atlanta hasn't done much unless Cordarrelle Patterson is doing it. The normal Bucs are must-starts, so no surprises here. PFN fantasy newsletter subscribers will read my concerns about Tom Brady tomorrow morning. But it's hard to imagine him disappointing in this ideal matchup. And Atlanta simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up. Kyle Pitts is another player featured in tomorrow's newsletter; as with Brady, the stats I share might shock you. Only Patterson is a must-start. Pitts is a "I have to start him, but wish I had someone more reliable" TE.
Colts (-9) @ Texans -- Again, no surprises here. You know which Colts to start. T.Y. Hilton was the WR-28 last week, so he's a decent desperation streamer who should be available in a lot of leagues. For Houston, David Johnson is questions, and if he's out or limited, Rex Burkhead will be on the RB3+ map. Can't believe I'm writing that, but it's true. And aside from Brandin Cooks, we can't trust any Houston receiver. Tyrod Taylor will need to throw more than he should be, and that's not a good thing.
Bears (+8) vs. Cardinals -- When will David Montgomery get going? And will Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins play, and be at least close to 100%? Too many question marks, some completely unanswerable on an early Saturday morning. But for now, it's fair to wonder if Montgomery will be eased to the side a bit if he starts slow. The boom is there, and so is the best, because Khalil Herbert is capable of carrying the load. I'm also eyeing Cole Kmet if he's good to go. For the Cardinals, again, chaos at the moment. But I think Chicago slows them down, including the overvalued James Conner.
Bengals (-3) vs. Chargers -- If you're a Cincy fan, there's a lot to be excited about. Ja'Marr Chase is due, but the Chargers are far more beatable on the ground. So if the Bengals go conservative with a heavy dose of Joe Mixon and a little Samaje Perine, many fantasy managers relying on points from the passing game will suffer. I like Chase breaking through, and I'm personally stacking Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the belief Cincy's pretty solid run defense and capable offense will force Justin Herbert to play from behind in the second half.
Dolphins (-4) vs. Giants -- Two teams going in opposite directions. We can trust Myles Gaskin (somewhat) and Jaylen Waddle (a lot). Beyond that, Tua Tagovailoa has been far better on the field than in fantasy, and Mike Gesicki is a higher-risk option than most TE1s. But I expect Miami to maintain a solid lead in this one. The less-than-100% Saquon Barkley hasn't shown much the last two seasons to warrant starting confidently, and the passing attack is painful to watch. Mike Glennon replacing the injured Daniel Jones probably won't help.
Eagles (-7) @ Jets -- If anyone besides Zach Wilson were starting, I'd take the Jets to cover. But then again, if anyone besides Wilson were starting, the spread would be narrower. Expect a lot of Miles Sanders (and some Boston Scott if he plays). Major question marks surrounding Jalen Hurts' availability, as well as his usefulness if he plays. Gardner Minshew would be a fascinating streamer if Hurts sits. DeVonta Smith is worth starting, as expected. But again, starting Philly RBs should be a safe route. For the Jets, Elijah Moore is the best option, and the three-headed backfield should be avoided.
Raiders (-2.5) vs. Washington -- Two of the harder teams to figure out this season. Are they better or worse than they should be? For the Raiders, at this moment Josh Jacobs is questionable, so of course monitor this closely. Hunter Renfrow is the only safe receiver. Derek Carr should get back on track. I'm closely watching Bryan Edwards, who should be more involved, and I'm not sure what's going on. And Foster Moreau is a realistic TE1 in place of Darren Waller. For Washington, J.D. McKissic's absence and Antonio Gibson's seven receptions last week suggest we'll see a heavy dose of Gibson (25+ touches?). Terry McLaurin has been a WR4 more weeks than a WR3+ this year, as strange as that sounds. Beware this passing game; I honestly am not trusting anyone, though we have to start Terry given his ceiling.
Rams (-13) Jaguars -- Jacksonville beating Buffalo was insane. If they beat the Rams on the road, I'll collapse in confusion. The fact is, L.A. should dominate. Darrell Henderson comes in questionable, meaning Sony Michel should see enough work regardless, assuming game script gives his team the big lead they should have. OBJ is also questionable, so Van Jefferson is an easier must-start. And Tyler Higbee is a solid streamer. For the Jags, do we even start James Robinson? Suppose most of us have to. But it probably won't be fun against one of the league's top run D's. I can easily see the Rams DST piling up 20+ points.
Ravens (+4.5) @ Steelers -- As shared on Friday's podcast, I think Pittsburgh will win this, but I also think it will be close. Some of you know my recent concerns about Najee Harris as a locked-in RB1, and that should be reinforced tomorrow. Big Ben is undervalued. Lamar Jackson will need to carry Baltimore, as I still don't trust their backfield unless Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray scores. And we know what Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews can do. I thought Rashod Bateman would leapfrog Brown this season and was clearly wrong.
Seahawks (-3) vs. 49ers -- If I trusted Jimmy G. more, I'd take the Niners. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are safe plays, and of course I was completely wrong about Elijah Mitchell. But I like Seattle's offense getting back on track, as they give up on their anemic run game (does any other NFL team have four sub-par RBs and no one better?). Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett all need to be in starting lineups
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos -- A large spread, but I think Kansas City can handle it. Tried trading for Patrick Mahomes last week, and no luck for good reason. All the usual Chiefs are startable, of course. CEH is questionable, but it appears he's the unquestioned lead back until further notice, rendering Darrel Williams an afterthought. I also like Mecole Hardman as a streamer. The Chiefs should score 30+. For Denver, Javonte Williams finally has a clear lane, figuratively if not literally. With Melvin Gordon doubtful, Williams carries RB1 potential, though I think RB2 is more realistic, as game script should force Teddy Bridgewater to throw too much. Courtland Sutton is destined to be more than a WR8; tomorrow he's my favorite WR of their "Big 3."
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy