With seven minutes left in last night's game, Mac Jones was on a record-setting pace for pass attempts. He'd thrown one pass. The Super Bowl era record for fewest attempts was two. In a surprise move, he threw two passes. And that excitement pretty much sums up one of the strangest Monday Night Football games in history.
Other major North American sports don't battle the elements like the NFL. Maybe a moderate wind keeps a Jose Abreu deep fly from reaching the seats in Chicago. But game plans don't generally change on a dime because of weather, except in football.
So we can't take away much from last night that will help us going forward. For the Patriots, their Week 14 bye week should give Damien Harris time for his hamstring to heal. Harris's impressive 64-yard TD was the highlight. Given the cold conditions (and the wind chill made it much worse), his injury shouldn't have been a shocker. What's more surprising is that Bill Belichick put him back in later. Rhamondre Stevenson is as valuable as ever and would be a must-start if Harris sits in Week 15, or even if Harris is a game-time-decision starter.
For Buffalo, a bad loss against a prepared opponent. Matt Breida's fumble (which I think was attributed to Josh Allen) might have cost him his co-starting job. Devin Singletary looked better than Zack Moss on the ground, as always. And Moss inexplicably scored more fantasy points, as (almost) always. MNF reinforced how odd this backfield has been all year. To be candid (and I always try to be), some head coaches would have given Breida another chance after that mistake, especially given the conditions. Austin Ekeler lost two fumbles Sunday and kept getting fed. The less proven CEH had fumbling issues, but his coach's trust didn't waiver. If this is the end of Breida's brief run as a 2021 fantasy asset, what a disappointingly quick collapse.
As for the passing game, it's easy (and probably appropriate) to blame the weather for Josh Allen's struggles. It looked like at times he had opportunities to run, but didn't, instead opting for low-probability passes. Other times he simply didn't see open receivers. That happens. It's football. But when evaluating Allen's "greatness," there are two basic ways to measure it. One is in fantasy, where he continually crushes it. The other is on the field, where in his fourth NFL season he hasn't reached that level that the truly top-tier QBs reach.
We've seen regressions from other young, extraordinarily talented QBs this season. Patrick Mahomes has looked human. Lamar Jackson has scored only one touchdown in eight of 11 games and is still making rookie-like decisions with the ball (like blindly heaving passes into the end zone while in field goal range).
But with Allen, the question is whether he's a franchise QB, or a franchise-elevating QB. There is a clear distinction. We know it when we see it. Franchise QBs are better than replacement value. Franchise-elevating QBs are irreplaceable. I'm still waiting to see which one Josh Allen is.
Meanwhile, the winner of last night's closest-score prediction contest. Honorable mention goes to Justin Wirtjes (13-7) and Joshua Pugh (12-10). So close, Joshua. And the winner is John Morris (13-10), continuing a trend of the winner missing by only one point. Congrats John!
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Other major North American sports don't battle the elements like the NFL. Maybe a moderate wind keeps a Jose Abreu deep fly from reaching the seats in Chicago. But game plans don't generally change on a dime because of weather, except in football.
So we can't take away much from last night that will help us going forward. For the Patriots, their Week 14 bye week should give Damien Harris time for his hamstring to heal. Harris's impressive 64-yard TD was the highlight. Given the cold conditions (and the wind chill made it much worse), his injury shouldn't have been a shocker. What's more surprising is that Bill Belichick put him back in later. Rhamondre Stevenson is as valuable as ever and would be a must-start if Harris sits in Week 15, or even if Harris is a game-time-decision starter.
For Buffalo, a bad loss against a prepared opponent. Matt Breida's fumble (which I think was attributed to Josh Allen) might have cost him his co-starting job. Devin Singletary looked better than Zack Moss on the ground, as always. And Moss inexplicably scored more fantasy points, as (almost) always. MNF reinforced how odd this backfield has been all year. To be candid (and I always try to be), some head coaches would have given Breida another chance after that mistake, especially given the conditions. Austin Ekeler lost two fumbles Sunday and kept getting fed. The less proven CEH had fumbling issues, but his coach's trust didn't waiver. If this is the end of Breida's brief run as a 2021 fantasy asset, what a disappointingly quick collapse.
As for the passing game, it's easy (and probably appropriate) to blame the weather for Josh Allen's struggles. It looked like at times he had opportunities to run, but didn't, instead opting for low-probability passes. Other times he simply didn't see open receivers. That happens. It's football. But when evaluating Allen's "greatness," there are two basic ways to measure it. One is in fantasy, where he continually crushes it. The other is on the field, where in his fourth NFL season he hasn't reached that level that the truly top-tier QBs reach.
We've seen regressions from other young, extraordinarily talented QBs this season. Patrick Mahomes has looked human. Lamar Jackson has scored only one touchdown in eight of 11 games and is still making rookie-like decisions with the ball (like blindly heaving passes into the end zone while in field goal range).
But with Allen, the question is whether he's a franchise QB, or a franchise-elevating QB. There is a clear distinction. We know it when we see it. Franchise QBs are better than replacement value. Franchise-elevating QBs are irreplaceable. I'm still waiting to see which one Josh Allen is.
Meanwhile, the winner of last night's closest-score prediction contest. Honorable mention goes to Justin Wirtjes (13-7) and Joshua Pugh (12-10). So close, Joshua. And the winner is John Morris (13-10), continuing a trend of the winner missing by only one point. Congrats John!
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy