Congratulations to those who made it into the next round, and to those who didn't it stinks. If you're still competing, the current NFL environment is more complicated than ever. We don't know on Thursday how many players without injury designations will suddenly be inactive on Sunday. The strategy for adding guys off waivers isn't as easy as "take the best available" or "play the matchups." It's a highly volatile situation that requires, for some of you, restraint rather than action.
Here's what I'm talking about: I'm now in the semis in Division A of the Premier Fantasy Football League. My opponent has been the better manager this season. He has Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, and TJ Hockenson, along with other very good players. Henry is out. Hock is out. Hill is on the COVID list. I have $3 of FAAB left. He has $0. Since waiver adds are $1 minimum, he's stuck with the team he has. So how should I approach this?
From my perspective, with more patience than ever. This past week Cleveland, Chicago, and Washington were some of the teams dealing with a breakout of positive COVID tests. Yesterday it was announced Kansas City is going through it. Which team will be next? If I jump on a player now, I'm losing the flexibility to add someone later if one or more of my players are suddenly inactive.
Even if you don't use FAAB, holding back might be the best strategy. You might have the #1 waiver claim. So let's say you take Tyler Huntley, thinking Lamar Jackson might sit. Or you go with Duke Johnson or Gabriel Davis (if he's somehow still available) or Foster Moreau or Mecole Hardman. Some of these guys are higher-than-normal risks to miss Week 16. Davis is reportedly unvaccinated, and teammate Cole Beasley is on the COVID list. There are somewhat decent odds that Davis could be impacted. Hardman could be Patrick Mahomes' #1 receiver if Hill and Travis Kelce remain out, but given how quickly positive case have swept through Kansas City, couldn't Hardman be next?
Or take Detroit's Craig Reynolds (even though Jamaal Williams appears to be coming back) or Amon-Ra St. Brown or Josh Reynolds. In any other season, all three should be rostered. But with Jared Goff now on the COVID list, we're all bracing to see if other Lions will be added. If Craig Reynolds is placed on the list, you'll wish you added Williams. If Williams goes on the list, you'll wish you added Reynolds. And you'll no longer have first dibs on a higher-probability player later.
Time is as important a factor as ever. Not just talent. Not just opportunity. But time. If you burn a pick now, you're opening the door for your opponent to make a clearer-eyed pick closer to Sunday. If you choose wrong when waivers opens, your opponent is more likely to choose right the following day.
So I'm taking an overly cautious approach. With $3 in FAAB, I have up to three chances to keep my team afloat. It's no longer about improving the margins--adding a DST who might get me four more points. That might be a wasted pick in today's climate, which necessitates more of a wait-and-see approach before determining where the greatest needs are.
And this "early" into Week 16, it's hard to know what our greatest needs will be by Sunday morning.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Here's what I'm talking about: I'm now in the semis in Division A of the Premier Fantasy Football League. My opponent has been the better manager this season. He has Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, and TJ Hockenson, along with other very good players. Henry is out. Hock is out. Hill is on the COVID list. I have $3 of FAAB left. He has $0. Since waiver adds are $1 minimum, he's stuck with the team he has. So how should I approach this?
From my perspective, with more patience than ever. This past week Cleveland, Chicago, and Washington were some of the teams dealing with a breakout of positive COVID tests. Yesterday it was announced Kansas City is going through it. Which team will be next? If I jump on a player now, I'm losing the flexibility to add someone later if one or more of my players are suddenly inactive.
Even if you don't use FAAB, holding back might be the best strategy. You might have the #1 waiver claim. So let's say you take Tyler Huntley, thinking Lamar Jackson might sit. Or you go with Duke Johnson or Gabriel Davis (if he's somehow still available) or Foster Moreau or Mecole Hardman. Some of these guys are higher-than-normal risks to miss Week 16. Davis is reportedly unvaccinated, and teammate Cole Beasley is on the COVID list. There are somewhat decent odds that Davis could be impacted. Hardman could be Patrick Mahomes' #1 receiver if Hill and Travis Kelce remain out, but given how quickly positive case have swept through Kansas City, couldn't Hardman be next?
Or take Detroit's Craig Reynolds (even though Jamaal Williams appears to be coming back) or Amon-Ra St. Brown or Josh Reynolds. In any other season, all three should be rostered. But with Jared Goff now on the COVID list, we're all bracing to see if other Lions will be added. If Craig Reynolds is placed on the list, you'll wish you added Williams. If Williams goes on the list, you'll wish you added Reynolds. And you'll no longer have first dibs on a higher-probability player later.
Time is as important a factor as ever. Not just talent. Not just opportunity. But time. If you burn a pick now, you're opening the door for your opponent to make a clearer-eyed pick closer to Sunday. If you choose wrong when waivers opens, your opponent is more likely to choose right the following day.
So I'm taking an overly cautious approach. With $3 in FAAB, I have up to three chances to keep my team afloat. It's no longer about improving the margins--adding a DST who might get me four more points. That might be a wasted pick in today's climate, which necessitates more of a wait-and-see approach before determining where the greatest needs are.
And this "early" into Week 16, it's hard to know what our greatest needs will be by Sunday morning.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy