The sports term "replacement-level talent" is thrown around frequently these days to describe players who aren't markedly better than an "average" player who could fill in for them. I think it started with baseball at the dawn of the Moneyball revolution, or maybe before. If any of you know, please hit me up with some knowledge.
In fantasy, replacement-level talent helps us identify starters in re-draft leagues who might not remain starters the rest of the season, or dynasty players coming off a big year who probably can't sustain those elevated statistics. For example, someone benefiting from an elite offensive line, and then signing with a team where yards-before-contact are cut in half, leading to dramatically reduced yardage and fewer touchdowns. It's not that their prior production wasn't earned. It's that they aren't necessarily "better" than some other RBs they're outperforming. Over time, sometimes, their actual value is revealed.
One of my favorite examples is Toby Gerhart. Betting some of you just felt a knot in your stomach when you read his name. Such high hopes heading into 2014 after four relatively impressive years backing up Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. If you search for his name on this page, you'll find several warnings about him that summer--that despite his RB-19 ADP, he wouldn't finish in the top 30. His hype outweighed his abilities, and how those abilities would translate on his new team, the Jaguars. Seemingly "random" RBs like Denard Robinson and Jordan Todman easily outplayed him. Maybe Gerhart wasn't fully healthy. Who knows. But from a fantasy perspective, he wasn't someone we could confidently bank on.
We see this play out every season. It's important to identify them in real time, so we can make roster decisions reflecting likely future performance. On one end of the spectrum there's Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. We all know they're gifted, and in fantasy they're untouchable when healthy. Even when D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard dominate against the Patriots, we're still able to put some perspective on it and realize Henry is objectively "better," and that his position atop Tennessee's backfield depth chart is secure heading into 2022.
But then there are more pointed examples, and not all of them make us feel comfortable as fantasy managers. We believe they're as great as their track record, even if that track record is from several years ago, or based on a small sample size that probably can't be replicated across a full season.
Miles Sanders comes to mind. 5.0 career YPC. A former high-end pass-catcher. No obvious competition heading into this season. Yet the recently out-of-work Jordan Howard has looked just as good. So has 26-year-old fantasy afterthought Boston Scott. We can see many scenarios where Sanders isn't the highest-scoring Philly RB the rest of the season.
Then there are more interesting examples. I was going to say "controversial," because they're not exactly embraced by the fantasy community. But I'm always trying to find unconventional takes that are more likely than not to come to fruition. Sometimes these are injury-related. Saquon Barkley clearly is not close to 100%. Devontae Booker has outplayed him. If we can agree the Giants are out of the playoffs, and if we can assume they might eventually shut down Barkley, we might anticipate that Booker is the better fantasy bet in 2021. That makes Booker a must-roster RB, and I believe a more valuable fantasy asset than Barkley for the rest of this season.
And sometimes these less popular takes have more to do with talent than health. This summer I advised fantasy managers to fade Aaron Jones (RB-7 ADP). Now to be clear, as you all know, I get stuff wrong (ahem, Nick Chubb). I'm sensitive about not cherry-picking successes. But I pushed Jones as overvalued and A.J. Dillon as undervalued because I identified Jones as a replacement-level talent--not in a traditional sense, but in a fantasy sense when compared to Dillon.
I predicted that Dillon would work his way into a timeshare with Jones by the end of the season. Jones, coming off back-to-back top-5 RB seasons. Dillon, a second-year back who was a little-used handcuff in 2020. How could this be? Because Dillon's talent not only rivals Jones's, but in my view, exceeds Jones's. The question wasn't *if*, but *when* Dillon asserted himself as the better back. Yes, highly controversial.
When Jones scored 41.5 fantasy points in Week 2, it would have been easy to say I got this wrong. But in his other 10 games Jones has averaged 12.2 points. Meanwhile, Dillon has averaged 10.8 points despite earning fewer touches. In fact, five of Green Bay's top 10 RB fantasy performances this season belong to Dillon. He's still a largely unproven 23-year-old, yet he's going toe-to-toe with a proven elite fantasy RB.
This doesn't make Jones a "replacement-level" NFL talent. Far from it. But in our fantasy world, his value dropped when the Packers selected Dillon in the second round. It seemed unrealistic to assume Dillon would be limited to 50-100 touches a year for the next 4-5 seasons. Had they drafted someone like DeeJay Dallas (Seattle's fourth-rounder) instead, we might have foreseen several more elite years from Jones.
So the takeaway is that RB value is determined not only by what the RB can do in his offense, but also by what his fellow RBs can do in that same offense. Every situation is different and requires its own calculations. 2019 Jamaal Williams in Green Bay is different than 2021 Jamaal Williams in Detroit. 2019 Devonta Freeman in Atlanta is different than 2021 Devonta Freeman in Baltimore. Health, offensive line, coaching scheme, backfield teammates . . . so many factors contribute to an RB's likely fantasy value, and whether his "actual" value is higher or lower than his universally perceived value--whether he's easily replaceable, or indispensable.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
In fantasy, replacement-level talent helps us identify starters in re-draft leagues who might not remain starters the rest of the season, or dynasty players coming off a big year who probably can't sustain those elevated statistics. For example, someone benefiting from an elite offensive line, and then signing with a team where yards-before-contact are cut in half, leading to dramatically reduced yardage and fewer touchdowns. It's not that their prior production wasn't earned. It's that they aren't necessarily "better" than some other RBs they're outperforming. Over time, sometimes, their actual value is revealed.
One of my favorite examples is Toby Gerhart. Betting some of you just felt a knot in your stomach when you read his name. Such high hopes heading into 2014 after four relatively impressive years backing up Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. If you search for his name on this page, you'll find several warnings about him that summer--that despite his RB-19 ADP, he wouldn't finish in the top 30. His hype outweighed his abilities, and how those abilities would translate on his new team, the Jaguars. Seemingly "random" RBs like Denard Robinson and Jordan Todman easily outplayed him. Maybe Gerhart wasn't fully healthy. Who knows. But from a fantasy perspective, he wasn't someone we could confidently bank on.
We see this play out every season. It's important to identify them in real time, so we can make roster decisions reflecting likely future performance. On one end of the spectrum there's Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. We all know they're gifted, and in fantasy they're untouchable when healthy. Even when D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard dominate against the Patriots, we're still able to put some perspective on it and realize Henry is objectively "better," and that his position atop Tennessee's backfield depth chart is secure heading into 2022.
But then there are more pointed examples, and not all of them make us feel comfortable as fantasy managers. We believe they're as great as their track record, even if that track record is from several years ago, or based on a small sample size that probably can't be replicated across a full season.
Miles Sanders comes to mind. 5.0 career YPC. A former high-end pass-catcher. No obvious competition heading into this season. Yet the recently out-of-work Jordan Howard has looked just as good. So has 26-year-old fantasy afterthought Boston Scott. We can see many scenarios where Sanders isn't the highest-scoring Philly RB the rest of the season.
Then there are more interesting examples. I was going to say "controversial," because they're not exactly embraced by the fantasy community. But I'm always trying to find unconventional takes that are more likely than not to come to fruition. Sometimes these are injury-related. Saquon Barkley clearly is not close to 100%. Devontae Booker has outplayed him. If we can agree the Giants are out of the playoffs, and if we can assume they might eventually shut down Barkley, we might anticipate that Booker is the better fantasy bet in 2021. That makes Booker a must-roster RB, and I believe a more valuable fantasy asset than Barkley for the rest of this season.
And sometimes these less popular takes have more to do with talent than health. This summer I advised fantasy managers to fade Aaron Jones (RB-7 ADP). Now to be clear, as you all know, I get stuff wrong (ahem, Nick Chubb). I'm sensitive about not cherry-picking successes. But I pushed Jones as overvalued and A.J. Dillon as undervalued because I identified Jones as a replacement-level talent--not in a traditional sense, but in a fantasy sense when compared to Dillon.
I predicted that Dillon would work his way into a timeshare with Jones by the end of the season. Jones, coming off back-to-back top-5 RB seasons. Dillon, a second-year back who was a little-used handcuff in 2020. How could this be? Because Dillon's talent not only rivals Jones's, but in my view, exceeds Jones's. The question wasn't *if*, but *when* Dillon asserted himself as the better back. Yes, highly controversial.
When Jones scored 41.5 fantasy points in Week 2, it would have been easy to say I got this wrong. But in his other 10 games Jones has averaged 12.2 points. Meanwhile, Dillon has averaged 10.8 points despite earning fewer touches. In fact, five of Green Bay's top 10 RB fantasy performances this season belong to Dillon. He's still a largely unproven 23-year-old, yet he's going toe-to-toe with a proven elite fantasy RB.
This doesn't make Jones a "replacement-level" NFL talent. Far from it. But in our fantasy world, his value dropped when the Packers selected Dillon in the second round. It seemed unrealistic to assume Dillon would be limited to 50-100 touches a year for the next 4-5 seasons. Had they drafted someone like DeeJay Dallas (Seattle's fourth-rounder) instead, we might have foreseen several more elite years from Jones.
So the takeaway is that RB value is determined not only by what the RB can do in his offense, but also by what his fellow RBs can do in that same offense. Every situation is different and requires its own calculations. 2019 Jamaal Williams in Green Bay is different than 2021 Jamaal Williams in Detroit. 2019 Devonta Freeman in Atlanta is different than 2021 Devonta Freeman in Baltimore. Health, offensive line, coaching scheme, backfield teammates . . . so many factors contribute to an RB's likely fantasy value, and whether his "actual" value is higher or lower than his universally perceived value--whether he's easily replaceable, or indispensable.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy