Merry Christmas to all of you who celebrate. This season has felt much longer than just over 15 weeks, yet last year's historic Christmas game between the Saints and Vikings seems like less than a year ago. Einstein's Theory of Relativity in action.
Before that game, I'd written on this page that Alvin Kamara had a "good shot at 30+ points," which seemed a bit bold given how rare that feat occurs (a little over once a week). Instead, he had six touchdowns en route to 56.2 fantasy points. He ended the season averaging 1.30 fantasy points per touch for his career. For context, Adrian Peterson is averaging only 0.78. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 0.75. It was a truly insane performance to cap a insanely productive season.
And on year later, we can appreciate it even more given what we've seen from a far more "human" Kamara averaging 0.85 fantasy points per touch. Still incredible. But based on Kamara Standards, a letdown. Again, Einstein's Theory of Relativity.
(By the way, I don't think these are actual references to Einstein's Theory of Relativity. This is a literary device to make me look smarter than I am, while also somewhat getting my point across. It's Christmas, and I'm going for it.)
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This brings us to today's twinbill featuring two NFC title contenders and two AFC teams scratching for playoff spots. Here's what I think will happen fantasy-wise for each team. Full disclosure: In my semifinals matchup, I'm starting Nick Chubb over A.J. Dillon. It's not an easy call, as I don't feel entirely comfortable with Chubb unless I know with certainty that he'll catch 3+ balls. Very concerned about a 14-55 rushing line with little else to show for it. That said, his ceiling compels me to start him.
Packers -- Randall Cobb had his best game (Week 4) and Allen Lazard had his second-best game (Week 7) when Marquez Valdes-Scantling was out. Lazard had his best game (Week 14) and MVS had his second-best game (Week 15) when Cobb was out. And MVS had his best game (Week 11) when Lazard was out. With Cobb and MVS out for Week 16, I'm all in on Lazard as a top-30 WR with nice upside. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon probably will combined for 20-28 points. I'm not expecting a big breakout for either against Cleveland. Cold temperatures haven't affected Aaron Rodgers all year, so start him as his usual QB1 with huge upside. And Josiah Deguara or Mercedes Lewis should net 8+ points, and more likely than not 10+. So either is worth streaming if you don't have a top-10 TE.
Browns -- With Kareem Hunt out, Chubb should continue to dominate touches. I thought D'Ernest Johnson would be more involved Monday. Instead, he out-touched Demetric Felton only 5-3. There's some concern Chubb is playing five days after his 24-touch evening. But like I wrote above, what can we do? He's a top-10 RB when healthy. He's healthy. The opposing Packers are easily above-average against the run. Still, we have to believe Chubb will remain a key part of this offense, and he's averaging two catches in each of his last five games. Elsewhere, Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper are back, which muddies a sub-par Browns passing attack. Maybe one fantasy receiver will be startable today?
Cardinals -- James Conner is currently a game-time decision. So the only "pretty sure things" are that Christian Kirk and A.J. Green belong in fantasy startling lineups as top-28 WRs. Zach Ertz is startable as a likely TE1. Kyler Murray is Kyler Murray, which these days means "start him and hope" rather than "start him, sit back, and enjoy." If Conner sits, James Edmonds would be a must-start RB. If Conner plays, it's a guess which ones will crack the top-24, if either of them. Conner is no lock for a full complement of snaps even if he suits up. And Antoine Wesley earned eight targets last week and is a legit dart throw in deeper leagues.
Colts -- Jonathan Taylor, of course. Michael Pittman is set for a rebound; the question is how big. I think 12+ points is a near lock, meaning I'd start him as no worse than a flex. He can be excused for struggling against the Patriots and Bills in recent weeks. Carson Wentz has taken a big step back fantasy-wise since conquerering the Jets in Week 9. Since Week 10 he's thrown only six touchdown passes while exceeding 180 passing yards only once. Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle are major streamers, though we've seen both step up on occasion. In deep leagues you could surely do worse.
Good luck today. I'll be with family, but they know I missed out on 30+ points from A.J. Brown on Thursday, and that about 2% of my Yuletide joy will be driven by Chubb's production. So I'll be attuned to what's happening. If you have questions before the games, I'll do my best to answer.
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- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
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Before that game, I'd written on this page that Alvin Kamara had a "good shot at 30+ points," which seemed a bit bold given how rare that feat occurs (a little over once a week). Instead, he had six touchdowns en route to 56.2 fantasy points. He ended the season averaging 1.30 fantasy points per touch for his career. For context, Adrian Peterson is averaging only 0.78. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 0.75. It was a truly insane performance to cap a insanely productive season.
And on year later, we can appreciate it even more given what we've seen from a far more "human" Kamara averaging 0.85 fantasy points per touch. Still incredible. But based on Kamara Standards, a letdown. Again, Einstein's Theory of Relativity.
(By the way, I don't think these are actual references to Einstein's Theory of Relativity. This is a literary device to make me look smarter than I am, while also somewhat getting my point across. It's Christmas, and I'm going for it.)
---
This brings us to today's twinbill featuring two NFC title contenders and two AFC teams scratching for playoff spots. Here's what I think will happen fantasy-wise for each team. Full disclosure: In my semifinals matchup, I'm starting Nick Chubb over A.J. Dillon. It's not an easy call, as I don't feel entirely comfortable with Chubb unless I know with certainty that he'll catch 3+ balls. Very concerned about a 14-55 rushing line with little else to show for it. That said, his ceiling compels me to start him.
Packers -- Randall Cobb had his best game (Week 4) and Allen Lazard had his second-best game (Week 7) when Marquez Valdes-Scantling was out. Lazard had his best game (Week 14) and MVS had his second-best game (Week 15) when Cobb was out. And MVS had his best game (Week 11) when Lazard was out. With Cobb and MVS out for Week 16, I'm all in on Lazard as a top-30 WR with nice upside. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon probably will combined for 20-28 points. I'm not expecting a big breakout for either against Cleveland. Cold temperatures haven't affected Aaron Rodgers all year, so start him as his usual QB1 with huge upside. And Josiah Deguara or Mercedes Lewis should net 8+ points, and more likely than not 10+. So either is worth streaming if you don't have a top-10 TE.
Browns -- With Kareem Hunt out, Chubb should continue to dominate touches. I thought D'Ernest Johnson would be more involved Monday. Instead, he out-touched Demetric Felton only 5-3. There's some concern Chubb is playing five days after his 24-touch evening. But like I wrote above, what can we do? He's a top-10 RB when healthy. He's healthy. The opposing Packers are easily above-average against the run. Still, we have to believe Chubb will remain a key part of this offense, and he's averaging two catches in each of his last five games. Elsewhere, Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper are back, which muddies a sub-par Browns passing attack. Maybe one fantasy receiver will be startable today?
Cardinals -- James Conner is currently a game-time decision. So the only "pretty sure things" are that Christian Kirk and A.J. Green belong in fantasy startling lineups as top-28 WRs. Zach Ertz is startable as a likely TE1. Kyler Murray is Kyler Murray, which these days means "start him and hope" rather than "start him, sit back, and enjoy." If Conner sits, James Edmonds would be a must-start RB. If Conner plays, it's a guess which ones will crack the top-24, if either of them. Conner is no lock for a full complement of snaps even if he suits up. And Antoine Wesley earned eight targets last week and is a legit dart throw in deeper leagues.
Colts -- Jonathan Taylor, of course. Michael Pittman is set for a rebound; the question is how big. I think 12+ points is a near lock, meaning I'd start him as no worse than a flex. He can be excused for struggling against the Patriots and Bills in recent weeks. Carson Wentz has taken a big step back fantasy-wise since conquerering the Jets in Week 9. Since Week 10 he's thrown only six touchdown passes while exceeding 180 passing yards only once. Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle are major streamers, though we've seen both step up on occasion. In deep leagues you could surely do worse.
Good luck today. I'll be with family, but they know I missed out on 30+ points from A.J. Brown on Thursday, and that about 2% of my Yuletide joy will be driven by Chubb's production. So I'll be attuned to what's happening. If you have questions before the games, I'll do my best to answer.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy