There's a game tonight. Not two, but one. The NFL is trying to adjust to COVID realities. Surely there will be more chaos.
I try not to overtly plug things too often, preferring to stick to facts and analyses. But if you want to get a rundown of the macro and micro fantasy implications of COVID, please listen to my podcast episode, recorded yesterday afternoon with Tommy Garrett and Jason "Katz" Katz. We talk through how managers like us are factoring all this into our waiver and lineup decisions, how and when to adjust league rules to ensure fairness, and so on. We're trying to present information that people can use. We're not just tracking this stuff constantly every day; we're also trying to figure out how to win our leagues, just like you are.
With that in mind, there's a big game tonight. The last time the Patriots and Colts met in 2018, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck combined for 706 passing yards and seven touchdowns on 103 pass attempts. I believe the only two offensive contributors active tonight who played in that game are Nyheim Hines and Zach Pascal. T.Y. Hilton missed that one with an injury, and James White is currently on the shelf. So yeah, the NFL landscape changes fast.
For the 7-6 Colts, obviously a must-win game. They'll head to Arizona next week. Going 0-2 likely would doom their playoff hopes. New England is playing on another level right now, particularly their elite pass defense. #1 receivers haven't gained much traction, including most recently guys like Stefon Diggs two weeks ago (4-51-0 receiving line) and D.J. Moore in Week 9 (3-32-0). Michael Pittman will be a risky WR3. If Hilton outperforms him, I wouldn't be surprised. Jack Doyle is his normal boom-bust self at the streaming-friendly TE position.
The challenge is that Carson Wentz isn't throwing much these days, because he hasn't needed to. Jonathan Taylor has carried the offense most weeks. Wentz has topped out at 34 passing attempts in wins, and for obvious reasons has thrown much more in losses. In his last two defeats, he attempted 44 passes against the Bucs and 51 versus the Titans. If he's dumping it off to Taylor and Hines, he can generate streaming value if things break right (if Taylor/Hines find the end zone a couple times on catches). So that's what you're betting on if you start Wentz. His floor is around 10 points. His ceiling is around 20, though 14-16 is much more likely than 20.
And of course, we have to start Taylor. Doesn't matter that Bill Belichick will do everything in his (magical?) power to stop fantasy's top running back. Taylor's floor is around 8-10 points, and that's if New England consciously shadows him on all non-running plays, limiting his usage in the passing game. Taylor's ceiling remains as high as any player on the field tonight. That said, as with Wentz, I think 14-16 is a realistic target for Taylor, sadly for those of you hoping for another big breakout.
As for New England, Damien Harris is out. Rhamondre Stevenson is a must-start. He's been one of my biggest contrarian talking points all season. Two weeks into my stint at Pro Football Network, I wrote an article urging managers to "add him ASAP" ahead of Week 7. Then he was declared inactive, which made me feel a bit silly. But that morning I added a note at the top of the article: "At 11:00am, Rhamondre Stevenson was declared inactive for today’s game. He remains a strong long-term play as a potential bell-cow-in-waiting."
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/rhamondre-stevenson-fantasy-analysis-waiver-wire-2021-nflwk-7/
I'm going to keep saying this, because it's one of my top 10 mantras for fantasy success: Talent + Opportunity = Fantasy Points. Last summer I drafted D'Andre Swift in the sixth round, even though he was #3 in the RB pecking order. Because he was the most talented Lions back. I was betting that he would earn the opportunity to lead the backfield. The same goes for Stevenson--another talented rookie who could thrive if given the opportunity. Granted, he's benefitting from Harris's absence. But given RBs' higher-than-normal injury risks, betting on talented backups is always a bet worth making.
Elsewhere, I like Brandon Bolden as a 7+ point option, and he's in my optimal DFS lineup (the full lineup can be found later today on PFN's website). And everyone Patriot wideout is a crapshoot. Kendrick Bourne? Jakobi Meyers? Nelson Agholor? Even TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are nothing more than deep-league flyers. Bourne offers the highest ceiling of any Patriot receiver. But again, the odds are not great, so you have to hope you pick the one correct player.
For tonight's final score, I'll go 20-17 Colts. Share your prediction below, and any sit/start or waiver questions, as always.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
I try not to overtly plug things too often, preferring to stick to facts and analyses. But if you want to get a rundown of the macro and micro fantasy implications of COVID, please listen to my podcast episode, recorded yesterday afternoon with Tommy Garrett and Jason "Katz" Katz. We talk through how managers like us are factoring all this into our waiver and lineup decisions, how and when to adjust league rules to ensure fairness, and so on. We're trying to present information that people can use. We're not just tracking this stuff constantly every day; we're also trying to figure out how to win our leagues, just like you are.
With that in mind, there's a big game tonight. The last time the Patriots and Colts met in 2018, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck combined for 706 passing yards and seven touchdowns on 103 pass attempts. I believe the only two offensive contributors active tonight who played in that game are Nyheim Hines and Zach Pascal. T.Y. Hilton missed that one with an injury, and James White is currently on the shelf. So yeah, the NFL landscape changes fast.
For the 7-6 Colts, obviously a must-win game. They'll head to Arizona next week. Going 0-2 likely would doom their playoff hopes. New England is playing on another level right now, particularly their elite pass defense. #1 receivers haven't gained much traction, including most recently guys like Stefon Diggs two weeks ago (4-51-0 receiving line) and D.J. Moore in Week 9 (3-32-0). Michael Pittman will be a risky WR3. If Hilton outperforms him, I wouldn't be surprised. Jack Doyle is his normal boom-bust self at the streaming-friendly TE position.
The challenge is that Carson Wentz isn't throwing much these days, because he hasn't needed to. Jonathan Taylor has carried the offense most weeks. Wentz has topped out at 34 passing attempts in wins, and for obvious reasons has thrown much more in losses. In his last two defeats, he attempted 44 passes against the Bucs and 51 versus the Titans. If he's dumping it off to Taylor and Hines, he can generate streaming value if things break right (if Taylor/Hines find the end zone a couple times on catches). So that's what you're betting on if you start Wentz. His floor is around 10 points. His ceiling is around 20, though 14-16 is much more likely than 20.
And of course, we have to start Taylor. Doesn't matter that Bill Belichick will do everything in his (magical?) power to stop fantasy's top running back. Taylor's floor is around 8-10 points, and that's if New England consciously shadows him on all non-running plays, limiting his usage in the passing game. Taylor's ceiling remains as high as any player on the field tonight. That said, as with Wentz, I think 14-16 is a realistic target for Taylor, sadly for those of you hoping for another big breakout.
As for New England, Damien Harris is out. Rhamondre Stevenson is a must-start. He's been one of my biggest contrarian talking points all season. Two weeks into my stint at Pro Football Network, I wrote an article urging managers to "add him ASAP" ahead of Week 7. Then he was declared inactive, which made me feel a bit silly. But that morning I added a note at the top of the article: "At 11:00am, Rhamondre Stevenson was declared inactive for today’s game. He remains a strong long-term play as a potential bell-cow-in-waiting."
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/rhamondre-stevenson-fantasy-analysis-waiver-wire-2021-nflwk-7/
I'm going to keep saying this, because it's one of my top 10 mantras for fantasy success: Talent + Opportunity = Fantasy Points. Last summer I drafted D'Andre Swift in the sixth round, even though he was #3 in the RB pecking order. Because he was the most talented Lions back. I was betting that he would earn the opportunity to lead the backfield. The same goes for Stevenson--another talented rookie who could thrive if given the opportunity. Granted, he's benefitting from Harris's absence. But given RBs' higher-than-normal injury risks, betting on talented backups is always a bet worth making.
Elsewhere, I like Brandon Bolden as a 7+ point option, and he's in my optimal DFS lineup (the full lineup can be found later today on PFN's website). And everyone Patriot wideout is a crapshoot. Kendrick Bourne? Jakobi Meyers? Nelson Agholor? Even TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are nothing more than deep-league flyers. Bourne offers the highest ceiling of any Patriot receiver. But again, the odds are not great, so you have to hope you pick the one correct player.
For tonight's final score, I'll go 20-17 Colts. Share your prediction below, and any sit/start or waiver questions, as always.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy