Near the end of yesterday's Pro Football Network fantasy podcast, a listener asked an incredible strategy-based question that went beyond the usual stuff we see. This week PFN started recording the "In the Mood" fantasy podcast live on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays from 4:00pm to 4:45pm Eastern. The service is Twitch. Some of you know what that is. As an "older" person, I don't. But the point is, Twitch enables us to engage with listeners in real time, and then the recordings are uploaded to ITunes, Spotify, etc. like normal.
So about 40 minutes in, a listener comment popped up, asking whether it's good strategy to load up on DSTs for the fantasy playoffs. It hit me personally, because as I've shared before, Doug Harrison beat me in the Division A finals of the Premier Fantasy Football League in 2018. My starting QB had gotten hurt, and I had one pretty bad option on my bench. Doug snagged all of the remaining starting QBs.
So no, this isn't a "hoarding DSTs" story. But it's the same strategy. And it worked. After I lost in the finals, I looked at how each of the other QBs had done--the four or five Doug picked up. Any of them would have put me over the top. It was a crushing defeat, and it was a thrilling victory for Doug. And I know that because Doug constantly reminds me.
This year I did something similar--not for the playoffs, but for my personal playoffs, because at 6-6 I needed to win one of my final two games to reach the postseason. Sounds strange to get in at 7-7. It's a 14-team league, Six get in. But Division A of the PFFL is brutally competitive. Johnny Green and Cory Nedd finished third and fourth at 8-6. Four of us finished 7-7. Another five finished 6-8. And so at 6-6 I ran the numbers and realized I probably won't beat Johnny in Week 13, but I had a good shot at beating Steve and Ross (the best fantasy partnership I've ever encountered) in Week 14.
Steve and Ross's biggest weakness, from what I could tell, was at DST. They had started Houston against the Jets, so surely they'd be looking for a better DST down the stretch. None of this is rocket science, by the way. But the key here is that we need to act fast. The Titans were playing the Jaguars Week 14. I figured they had the highest upside of any Week 14 DST, so I picked them up to block Steve and Ross.
Haven't discussed this with them. Have no idea if they were targeting Tennessee. But here's what I do know: they picked up the Chargers. If I hadn't acted, and if they'd added and started the Titans instead, they would have beaten me by less than three points. I would have been 6-8, and my postseason streak would have ended.
So if you're stashing a WR4 on your bench at this stage, in almost all circumstances it would be better to scour waivers for the best Week 15 (or 16 or 17) DSTs available. Or if some playoff opponents have a QB with tough matchups in Weeks 16 or 17, add some of the best available QBs with the best 16/17 matchups. Obviously, you don't need to start them. Adding a player isn't just about gaining points; it's also about preventing your opponent from gaining points. And as I've learned on both sides, blocking opponents can mean the difference between winning and losing.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
So about 40 minutes in, a listener comment popped up, asking whether it's good strategy to load up on DSTs for the fantasy playoffs. It hit me personally, because as I've shared before, Doug Harrison beat me in the Division A finals of the Premier Fantasy Football League in 2018. My starting QB had gotten hurt, and I had one pretty bad option on my bench. Doug snagged all of the remaining starting QBs.
So no, this isn't a "hoarding DSTs" story. But it's the same strategy. And it worked. After I lost in the finals, I looked at how each of the other QBs had done--the four or five Doug picked up. Any of them would have put me over the top. It was a crushing defeat, and it was a thrilling victory for Doug. And I know that because Doug constantly reminds me.
This year I did something similar--not for the playoffs, but for my personal playoffs, because at 6-6 I needed to win one of my final two games to reach the postseason. Sounds strange to get in at 7-7. It's a 14-team league, Six get in. But Division A of the PFFL is brutally competitive. Johnny Green and Cory Nedd finished third and fourth at 8-6. Four of us finished 7-7. Another five finished 6-8. And so at 6-6 I ran the numbers and realized I probably won't beat Johnny in Week 13, but I had a good shot at beating Steve and Ross (the best fantasy partnership I've ever encountered) in Week 14.
Steve and Ross's biggest weakness, from what I could tell, was at DST. They had started Houston against the Jets, so surely they'd be looking for a better DST down the stretch. None of this is rocket science, by the way. But the key here is that we need to act fast. The Titans were playing the Jaguars Week 14. I figured they had the highest upside of any Week 14 DST, so I picked them up to block Steve and Ross.
Haven't discussed this with them. Have no idea if they were targeting Tennessee. But here's what I do know: they picked up the Chargers. If I hadn't acted, and if they'd added and started the Titans instead, they would have beaten me by less than three points. I would have been 6-8, and my postseason streak would have ended.
So if you're stashing a WR4 on your bench at this stage, in almost all circumstances it would be better to scour waivers for the best Week 15 (or 16 or 17) DSTs available. Or if some playoff opponents have a QB with tough matchups in Weeks 16 or 17, add some of the best available QBs with the best 16/17 matchups. Obviously, you don't need to start them. Adding a player isn't just about gaining points; it's also about preventing your opponent from gaining points. And as I've learned on both sides, blocking opponents can mean the difference between winning and losing.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy