The outcome of tonight's game seemed clearer last week. The Colts had won three of four games after an 0-3 start, averaging 28.3 points during that span. Their defense looked better in those three wins, and Jonathan Taylor elevated his output into the fantasy stratosphere.
Meanwhile, the 1-5 Jets were coming off a 54-13 loss to the Patriots, during which their "franchise" QB was knocked out for 2-4 weeks. The lone semi-bright spot in their receiving corp, Corey Davis, was out for Week 8. It was going to be tough sledding against the 6-2 Bengals.
But now here we are: the 3-5 Colts vs. the 2-5 Jets. Last year Indy was one possession away from beating Buffalo in the playoffs, while New York was about 50 possessions away from the playoffs, finishing 2-14. Yet if the Jets pull out a victory tonight, they'll be ahead of the Colts in the standings.
On defense, these teams are pretty evenly matched statistically. Both defenses are giving up 4.0 yards per carry. The Colts' opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 103.9 QB rating, while Jets' opposing quarterbacks are averaging 102.9. But on offense there is a clear difference, with the Colts averaging 1.0 more yards to carry (thanks to Taylor), and a 14/4 passing TD/INT ratio (vs. 8/13 for the Jets). Of course, most of what we've seen from the Jets has come off the arm of Zach Wilson.
So the x-factor tonight is Mike White. If he's somehow for real, this game will be competitive. Jamison Crowder and perhaps Elijah Moore will be streamable. There will be growing buzz in New York and throughout the NFL universe that White would deserve to keep the job even when Wilson returns--at least this season.
I don't think anyone can claim to know if White can come close to replicating what he did in his first NFL start four days ago, in which statistically might have been the greatest QB debut in league history. Surely he can't do it again. But then again, he's aided by one of the least appreciated backfield tandems, Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. A rookie and a journeyman. Neither is viewed as a true bell-cow. So credit the coaching staff for getting the most out of them: 43 combined receptios despite poor running (3.8 YPC and 3.3 YPC, respectively).
I'm starting Carter tonight and hoping for 12 points. I'd be surprised if he gets more, unless he scores. Johnson is a decent bet for eight. Sure, one of them could blow up--presumably Carter as the lead back. I'm hoping he does, but am also tempering expectations. Carter is not the RB1 we saw last week.
For the Colts, besides obviously leaning on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, I'm wondering if the not-traded Marlon Mack will get some more run, or if Nyheim Hines will build off of last week's four receptions. Between the two, Hines offers some nice desperation RB3/4 upside if he remains involved in the passing game, particularly with T.Y. Hilton sidelined. Carson Wentz should be fine as a spot-starter. If Taylor's running it in a couple times, of course that caps Wentz's upside. And there's no way to predict how the scores will break down. So you start Wentz knowing Indy should score 24+; we just don't know how many scores will go to Wentz or Taylor (or both).
I like Indy 34-20 tonight. Leave your predictions below. As always, the winner will be praised in tomorrow's post with all the emotion I can muster.
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Meanwhile, the 1-5 Jets were coming off a 54-13 loss to the Patriots, during which their "franchise" QB was knocked out for 2-4 weeks. The lone semi-bright spot in their receiving corp, Corey Davis, was out for Week 8. It was going to be tough sledding against the 6-2 Bengals.
But now here we are: the 3-5 Colts vs. the 2-5 Jets. Last year Indy was one possession away from beating Buffalo in the playoffs, while New York was about 50 possessions away from the playoffs, finishing 2-14. Yet if the Jets pull out a victory tonight, they'll be ahead of the Colts in the standings.
On defense, these teams are pretty evenly matched statistically. Both defenses are giving up 4.0 yards per carry. The Colts' opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 103.9 QB rating, while Jets' opposing quarterbacks are averaging 102.9. But on offense there is a clear difference, with the Colts averaging 1.0 more yards to carry (thanks to Taylor), and a 14/4 passing TD/INT ratio (vs. 8/13 for the Jets). Of course, most of what we've seen from the Jets has come off the arm of Zach Wilson.
So the x-factor tonight is Mike White. If he's somehow for real, this game will be competitive. Jamison Crowder and perhaps Elijah Moore will be streamable. There will be growing buzz in New York and throughout the NFL universe that White would deserve to keep the job even when Wilson returns--at least this season.
I don't think anyone can claim to know if White can come close to replicating what he did in his first NFL start four days ago, in which statistically might have been the greatest QB debut in league history. Surely he can't do it again. But then again, he's aided by one of the least appreciated backfield tandems, Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. A rookie and a journeyman. Neither is viewed as a true bell-cow. So credit the coaching staff for getting the most out of them: 43 combined receptios despite poor running (3.8 YPC and 3.3 YPC, respectively).
I'm starting Carter tonight and hoping for 12 points. I'd be surprised if he gets more, unless he scores. Johnson is a decent bet for eight. Sure, one of them could blow up--presumably Carter as the lead back. I'm hoping he does, but am also tempering expectations. Carter is not the RB1 we saw last week.
For the Colts, besides obviously leaning on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, I'm wondering if the not-traded Marlon Mack will get some more run, or if Nyheim Hines will build off of last week's four receptions. Between the two, Hines offers some nice desperation RB3/4 upside if he remains involved in the passing game, particularly with T.Y. Hilton sidelined. Carson Wentz should be fine as a spot-starter. If Taylor's running it in a couple times, of course that caps Wentz's upside. And there's no way to predict how the scores will break down. So you start Wentz knowing Indy should score 24+; we just don't know how many scores will go to Wentz or Taylor (or both).
I like Indy 34-20 tonight. Leave your predictions below. As always, the winner will be praised in tomorrow's post with all the emotion I can muster.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy