While getting ready to record yesterday's episode of the Pro Football Network fantasy podcast, the biggest thing on my mind wasn't injuries or start/sits. It was the whole thing--that in every game Sunday, something different has happened or is happening. Something we couldn't have anticipated a week ago. That's what makes fantasy football so fascinating, frustrating, and ultimately (mostly for the winners) rewarding. And it all has a direct impact on the bargains and busts we want to identify. All those "what-if" scenarios driving lineup decisions.
So today I want to try something very different, and hopefully this will be more useful as we try to make sense of the weekend. Here are the factors influencing fantasy values in each Sunday game, with a focus on potential bargains and busts based on these factors. There's so much we still don't know (questionable tags, etc.). So rather than say, "Here's my favorite bargain," the reality is that there could be a dozen or more great bargains depending on what we learn these next 24 hours.
And by the way, as most of you know, I don't ask for much. (Or hopefully I don't.) But if you've listened to the PFN fantasy podcast and want to rate it on iTunes or give it a review, I'd be very grateful: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
Bengals vs. Browns -- Never thought I'd wonder this, but is C.J. Uzomah a TE1? He's currently the 10th-highest-scoring fantasy tight end. Some monster games. Some bad games. But if you need a boom-bust TE, there aren't many TEs on waivers with a bigger boom than Uzomah. He's currently available in 73% of ESPN leagues. And with Odell Beckham, Jr. getting dumped on his 29th birthday, Jarvis Landry or Donovan Peoples-Jones could become must-start WRs going forward. Cleveland's averaging barely 14 points per game in their last three contests. They semingly have to open up the passing game, even if Baker Mayfield remains less than 100%.
Cowboys vs. Broncos -- Dak Prescott's expected to return, and Michael Gallup is on the verge of coming back. But CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are questionable. CeeDee seeems to be the riskier player at the moment. His absence would open the door for Gallup (if he returns) or Cedrick Wilson to become appealing Week 9 streamers. For Denver, Noah Fant's injury could turn Albert Okwuegbunam into an overnight sensation. Fant is fourth in the league in TE targets. Although that's a little skewed with Jerry Jeudy missing most of the season, the reality is that Okwuegbunam has to be taken seriously.
Dolphins vs. Texans -- DeVante Parker rose to the occasion in 2019 when he wanted a new contract. That turned out to be his best NFL campaign, and he was rewarded with a four-year extension that December. He's never been the same since. With Parker now on injured reserve, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will carry much of the receiving load, which is great news for the guy I traded Waddle to earlier this year. Preston Williams also has streaming potential if things break right, but inconsistency has been his downfall. For Houston, Tyrod Taylor is making a triumphant return. If there's ever a reason to start him, this is it--against a Miami defense that's arguably the worst in the league.
Saints vs. Falcons -- Trevor Siemian earns the start as Taysom Hill continues to recover from a concussion injury. Siemian benefits more from Alvin Kamara than from great quarterback play. I would think it's only a matter of time before Hill wins that job. And with Calvin Ridley sidelined for the foreseeable future, Tajae Sharpe or Russell Gage is your best bet for 10+ points out of an Atlanta receiver. Sharpe has the edge for me, though that's not saying much given the talent gap between them and Kyle Pitts.
Giants vs. Raiders -- Holy cow. This game could go either way. Starting with the Raiders, I see one extreme or the other: either they rally in the face of a truly horrific week for the franchise, or they collapse. I've gone on record as saying this will be a tough week for Derek Carr. But as a football fan, I hope this week makes them stronger. And for the Giants, Sterling Shepard is out and Kenny Golladay remains hobbled. Kadarius Toney is better positioned to be a WR2 than a WR4. If he's available and you need boom-bust, what a great get.
Panthers vs. Patriots -- Two 4-4 teams fighting for a wild card spot with tough games later this season (Panthers get the Bucs twice, Cardinals, Bills, and Saints, while the Patriots get the Bills twice and a potential tough one in Indy). For Carolina, will CMC return, and if so, will he be the same ol' reliable RB1 we've come to know and love? Huge, huge fantasy question. All I know is he can't keep getting 29 touches a game. And besides the high-flying Damien Harris, is any other New England player startable? All of their receivers are TD-dependent.
Jaguars vs. Bills -- If James Robinson plays, do we start him? If he sits, is Carlos Hyde streamable? Tough questions. No easy answers. It seems to be a situation to avoid, especially against Buffalo. And with Cole Beasley questionable, Emmanuel Sanders is a prime rebound candidate after shockingly getting shut out on four targets last weekend. If Beasley sits, fire up Sanders as a top-30 WR. And even if Beasley plays, Sanders should be streamable.
Ravens vs. Vikings -- Will Rashod Bateman overtake Marquise Brown as Baltimore's #1 wideout? I've been saying "yes" for the past two weeks. And Tyler Conklin trails teammate K.J. Osborn by only one target. Conklin has carved out stable top-16 TE numbers after toiling in obscurity for three seasons. That he's done it with only one touchdown suggests there's untapped upside.
Eagles vs. Chargers -- Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each had two scores last week. But they came against the Lions. That said, the Chargers's defense is even worse against the run (5.1 yards per carry). So some are betting on Scott and Howard. In fact, Scott is the expert-consensus RB22 this week. I don't see it. This is a backfield to avoid. Last week, game script favored the running game. This week against the Chargers, I believe Jalen Hurts will be forced to do more throwing. As for the Bolts, Mike Williams has languished in three of the last four games. Is he still hurt? Will he return to greatness? Huge, huge fantasy ramifications.
Chiefs vs. Packers -- Kansas City's season is on the precipice. I'm curious whether Derrick Gore gets more run, and if so, how will this impact Darrel Williams? I traded CEH and Williams a few weeks ago because I wasn't convinced the former would regain his starting job. Williams has been better than I expected, thanks to passing-game usage I thought would go to Jerick McKinnon. This could be a cluttered backfield when CEH returns. And with Jordan Love earning his first NFL start, will we once again see Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combining for nearly 40 touches? Love is one of the hardest QBs to figure out this week. Could dominate against a very beatable K.C. defense. Or Green Bay might rein him in and play it conservatively. At the very least, this could be a sort-of preview of the Packers' offense next season.
49ers vs. Cardinals -- George Kittle is returning. Will it matter. As I shared on the podcast yesterday, in most of Kittle's dominating fantasy seasons, he played alongside middling receivers. With Deebo Samuel and a (potentially) ascending Brandon Aiyuk, will Kittle be the 8+ point guy we saw earlier this year, or the 14+ point player we've seen in years past? Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are questionable. I have Murray, but am planning to start Daniel Jones to be safe--not that Jones is safe, but you get what I'm saying. A Colt McCoy-led offense would make Chase Edmonds and James Conner must-starts, while Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore (and Antoine Wesley?) would offer good upside in a plus matchup.
Rams vs. Titans -- Matthew Stafford is questionable. I can see the Rams playing it safe with him the rest of the way. He's been more injury-prone in recent years, and handing the ball over to backup John Wolford in the postseaosn would be disastrous. So be mindful of load management, which could impact many terrific QBs poised to lead their teams in the playoffs (Dak, Kyler, etc.). And Tennessee's first game with Derrick Henry . . . and with A.J. Brown now questionable. Can Adrian Peterson recapture the magic? I launched my first (and very short-lived) fantasy football blog in September 2007, at the outset of AP's career. And here he is, starting for yet another team. Candidly, I'd be shocked if he gets more than 40 yards.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
So today I want to try something very different, and hopefully this will be more useful as we try to make sense of the weekend. Here are the factors influencing fantasy values in each Sunday game, with a focus on potential bargains and busts based on these factors. There's so much we still don't know (questionable tags, etc.). So rather than say, "Here's my favorite bargain," the reality is that there could be a dozen or more great bargains depending on what we learn these next 24 hours.
And by the way, as most of you know, I don't ask for much. (Or hopefully I don't.) But if you've listened to the PFN fantasy podcast and want to rate it on iTunes or give it a review, I'd be very grateful: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
Bengals vs. Browns -- Never thought I'd wonder this, but is C.J. Uzomah a TE1? He's currently the 10th-highest-scoring fantasy tight end. Some monster games. Some bad games. But if you need a boom-bust TE, there aren't many TEs on waivers with a bigger boom than Uzomah. He's currently available in 73% of ESPN leagues. And with Odell Beckham, Jr. getting dumped on his 29th birthday, Jarvis Landry or Donovan Peoples-Jones could become must-start WRs going forward. Cleveland's averaging barely 14 points per game in their last three contests. They semingly have to open up the passing game, even if Baker Mayfield remains less than 100%.
Cowboys vs. Broncos -- Dak Prescott's expected to return, and Michael Gallup is on the verge of coming back. But CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are questionable. CeeDee seeems to be the riskier player at the moment. His absence would open the door for Gallup (if he returns) or Cedrick Wilson to become appealing Week 9 streamers. For Denver, Noah Fant's injury could turn Albert Okwuegbunam into an overnight sensation. Fant is fourth in the league in TE targets. Although that's a little skewed with Jerry Jeudy missing most of the season, the reality is that Okwuegbunam has to be taken seriously.
Dolphins vs. Texans -- DeVante Parker rose to the occasion in 2019 when he wanted a new contract. That turned out to be his best NFL campaign, and he was rewarded with a four-year extension that December. He's never been the same since. With Parker now on injured reserve, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will carry much of the receiving load, which is great news for the guy I traded Waddle to earlier this year. Preston Williams also has streaming potential if things break right, but inconsistency has been his downfall. For Houston, Tyrod Taylor is making a triumphant return. If there's ever a reason to start him, this is it--against a Miami defense that's arguably the worst in the league.
Saints vs. Falcons -- Trevor Siemian earns the start as Taysom Hill continues to recover from a concussion injury. Siemian benefits more from Alvin Kamara than from great quarterback play. I would think it's only a matter of time before Hill wins that job. And with Calvin Ridley sidelined for the foreseeable future, Tajae Sharpe or Russell Gage is your best bet for 10+ points out of an Atlanta receiver. Sharpe has the edge for me, though that's not saying much given the talent gap between them and Kyle Pitts.
Giants vs. Raiders -- Holy cow. This game could go either way. Starting with the Raiders, I see one extreme or the other: either they rally in the face of a truly horrific week for the franchise, or they collapse. I've gone on record as saying this will be a tough week for Derek Carr. But as a football fan, I hope this week makes them stronger. And for the Giants, Sterling Shepard is out and Kenny Golladay remains hobbled. Kadarius Toney is better positioned to be a WR2 than a WR4. If he's available and you need boom-bust, what a great get.
Panthers vs. Patriots -- Two 4-4 teams fighting for a wild card spot with tough games later this season (Panthers get the Bucs twice, Cardinals, Bills, and Saints, while the Patriots get the Bills twice and a potential tough one in Indy). For Carolina, will CMC return, and if so, will he be the same ol' reliable RB1 we've come to know and love? Huge, huge fantasy question. All I know is he can't keep getting 29 touches a game. And besides the high-flying Damien Harris, is any other New England player startable? All of their receivers are TD-dependent.
Jaguars vs. Bills -- If James Robinson plays, do we start him? If he sits, is Carlos Hyde streamable? Tough questions. No easy answers. It seems to be a situation to avoid, especially against Buffalo. And with Cole Beasley questionable, Emmanuel Sanders is a prime rebound candidate after shockingly getting shut out on four targets last weekend. If Beasley sits, fire up Sanders as a top-30 WR. And even if Beasley plays, Sanders should be streamable.
Ravens vs. Vikings -- Will Rashod Bateman overtake Marquise Brown as Baltimore's #1 wideout? I've been saying "yes" for the past two weeks. And Tyler Conklin trails teammate K.J. Osborn by only one target. Conklin has carved out stable top-16 TE numbers after toiling in obscurity for three seasons. That he's done it with only one touchdown suggests there's untapped upside.
Eagles vs. Chargers -- Boston Scott and Jordan Howard each had two scores last week. But they came against the Lions. That said, the Chargers's defense is even worse against the run (5.1 yards per carry). So some are betting on Scott and Howard. In fact, Scott is the expert-consensus RB22 this week. I don't see it. This is a backfield to avoid. Last week, game script favored the running game. This week against the Chargers, I believe Jalen Hurts will be forced to do more throwing. As for the Bolts, Mike Williams has languished in three of the last four games. Is he still hurt? Will he return to greatness? Huge, huge fantasy ramifications.
Chiefs vs. Packers -- Kansas City's season is on the precipice. I'm curious whether Derrick Gore gets more run, and if so, how will this impact Darrel Williams? I traded CEH and Williams a few weeks ago because I wasn't convinced the former would regain his starting job. Williams has been better than I expected, thanks to passing-game usage I thought would go to Jerick McKinnon. This could be a cluttered backfield when CEH returns. And with Jordan Love earning his first NFL start, will we once again see Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combining for nearly 40 touches? Love is one of the hardest QBs to figure out this week. Could dominate against a very beatable K.C. defense. Or Green Bay might rein him in and play it conservatively. At the very least, this could be a sort-of preview of the Packers' offense next season.
49ers vs. Cardinals -- George Kittle is returning. Will it matter. As I shared on the podcast yesterday, in most of Kittle's dominating fantasy seasons, he played alongside middling receivers. With Deebo Samuel and a (potentially) ascending Brandon Aiyuk, will Kittle be the 8+ point guy we saw earlier this year, or the 14+ point player we've seen in years past? Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are questionable. I have Murray, but am planning to start Daniel Jones to be safe--not that Jones is safe, but you get what I'm saying. A Colt McCoy-led offense would make Chase Edmonds and James Conner must-starts, while Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore (and Antoine Wesley?) would offer good upside in a plus matchup.
Rams vs. Titans -- Matthew Stafford is questionable. I can see the Rams playing it safe with him the rest of the way. He's been more injury-prone in recent years, and handing the ball over to backup John Wolford in the postseaosn would be disastrous. So be mindful of load management, which could impact many terrific QBs poised to lead their teams in the playoffs (Dak, Kyler, etc.). And Tennessee's first game with Derrick Henry . . . and with A.J. Brown now questionable. Can Adrian Peterson recapture the magic? I launched my first (and very short-lived) fantasy football blog in September 2007, at the outset of AP's career. And here he is, starting for yet another team. Candidly, I'd be shocked if he gets more than 40 yards.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy