OK, those were three very, very different games. As always, let's try to make some sense of them from a fantasy perspective: What do these results mean for Week 13 and beyond.
But first, a quick reminder about the fantasy e-newsletter. I've been writing these twice a week. Each one is about 1,000 words, highlighting six players whose values I believe will rise or drop sooner rather than later. Tuesday's focused on Michael Gallup, Derek Carr, Matt Breida, Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Williams, and Marquez Callaway. Many of these names figured prominently yesterday. I try to focus on guys who matter, or who are about to matter. If you like this blog and sometimes find yourself thinking, "I have five minutes twice a week to read a little more," then sign up at the bottom.
Lions -- I'm kicking myself for overlooking Josh Reynolds. He and Jared Goff played together for four years with the Rams. So of course there should have been a little more attention paid to that dynamic. Regardless, the biggest story is D'Andre Swift's injury. Initial reports are that it's a shoulder sprain. If his Week 13 outlook doesn't look great by Tuesday, then Jamaal Williams will be a very popular waiver add, or a trade target for RB-needy managers. Williams' pass-catching ability alone would give him an RB3 floor if he's forced to start.
Bears -- Nearly everyone picked Darnell Mooney to do well, so that's nothing to hang my hat on. The bigger story is I missed big on David Montgomery, who I was convinced would run over the Lions, just like he did on October 3rd (106 rushing yards and two TDs). He needs to get going soon; otherwise I wouldn't be surprised if the nearly eliminated Bears give rookie Khalil Herbert a little more run. Montgomery has only one more year on his rookie contract. While I still believe in him, perhaps he's not yet back to 100%, and regardless, Chicago has little reason to overwork him once they're officially out of postseason contention.
Cowboys -- A shocker, at least to me. But on the field, things played out largely as expected. Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, and Dalton Schultz got their points. And yesterday I wrote a pair of articles on PFN warning that Zeke Elliott was a safe RB1--that he hasn't looked like a starter since his Week 9 knee contusion--and Tony Pollard was undervalued. If special teams touchdowns count in your league, Pollard outperformed Zeke. And on the field, Pollard simply looked better. Zeke has 10 days to get healthy and get out of hia 3-yard-per-carry routine.
Raiders -- What an incredible win for a team that had lost three straight. Josh Jacobs made me look silly with his best fantasy output of the season. I had cautioned against him based on performances ranging from RB2 to low-end RB3. But he came up big when it mattered most. Kenyan Drake's brief revival is a distant memory. I pushed Hunter Renfrow as a major buy-low receiver a few weeks ago, and only wish I'd done more to try to trade for him. And the biggest news: Darren Waller leaving early with a bone bruise in his knee. A really tough break for fantasy managers.
Saints -- When was the last time we watched a team in nationally televised game with (arguably) zero offensive playmakers capable of starting on virtually any other NFL team? It's not their fault, of course. They're without their starting QB, top-2 RBs, #1 WR, and #1 TE. Still, its was painful to watch New Orleans lose their fourth straight game due to a rash of injuries to their best players. I don't understand why Taysom Hill isn't starting. Maybe the team didn't want to throw Hill into a nearly unwinnable situation. But Dallas looms next week, and the Saints' playoff hopes are fading. They have nothing to gain by keeping Trevor Siemian at the helm.
Bills -- Matt Breida looked decent in the first half against a tough run defense. Then Devin Singletary dominated RB touches most of the rest of the way, despite not running any better. Then Breida came through with a huge TD reception midway through the fourth quarter. There's always more happening behind the scenes, so it's not helpful to speculate. What we do know is that Zack Moss--who I've been pushing as overvalued since early October because of poor running (3.5 YPC)--was the odd man out and was declared inactive. That makes sense. What we don't know is how Singletary and Breida will shake out heading into Week 13.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
But first, a quick reminder about the fantasy e-newsletter. I've been writing these twice a week. Each one is about 1,000 words, highlighting six players whose values I believe will rise or drop sooner rather than later. Tuesday's focused on Michael Gallup, Derek Carr, Matt Breida, Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Williams, and Marquez Callaway. Many of these names figured prominently yesterday. I try to focus on guys who matter, or who are about to matter. If you like this blog and sometimes find yourself thinking, "I have five minutes twice a week to read a little more," then sign up at the bottom.
Lions -- I'm kicking myself for overlooking Josh Reynolds. He and Jared Goff played together for four years with the Rams. So of course there should have been a little more attention paid to that dynamic. Regardless, the biggest story is D'Andre Swift's injury. Initial reports are that it's a shoulder sprain. If his Week 13 outlook doesn't look great by Tuesday, then Jamaal Williams will be a very popular waiver add, or a trade target for RB-needy managers. Williams' pass-catching ability alone would give him an RB3 floor if he's forced to start.
Bears -- Nearly everyone picked Darnell Mooney to do well, so that's nothing to hang my hat on. The bigger story is I missed big on David Montgomery, who I was convinced would run over the Lions, just like he did on October 3rd (106 rushing yards and two TDs). He needs to get going soon; otherwise I wouldn't be surprised if the nearly eliminated Bears give rookie Khalil Herbert a little more run. Montgomery has only one more year on his rookie contract. While I still believe in him, perhaps he's not yet back to 100%, and regardless, Chicago has little reason to overwork him once they're officially out of postseason contention.
Cowboys -- A shocker, at least to me. But on the field, things played out largely as expected. Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, and Dalton Schultz got their points. And yesterday I wrote a pair of articles on PFN warning that Zeke Elliott was a safe RB1--that he hasn't looked like a starter since his Week 9 knee contusion--and Tony Pollard was undervalued. If special teams touchdowns count in your league, Pollard outperformed Zeke. And on the field, Pollard simply looked better. Zeke has 10 days to get healthy and get out of hia 3-yard-per-carry routine.
Raiders -- What an incredible win for a team that had lost three straight. Josh Jacobs made me look silly with his best fantasy output of the season. I had cautioned against him based on performances ranging from RB2 to low-end RB3. But he came up big when it mattered most. Kenyan Drake's brief revival is a distant memory. I pushed Hunter Renfrow as a major buy-low receiver a few weeks ago, and only wish I'd done more to try to trade for him. And the biggest news: Darren Waller leaving early with a bone bruise in his knee. A really tough break for fantasy managers.
Saints -- When was the last time we watched a team in nationally televised game with (arguably) zero offensive playmakers capable of starting on virtually any other NFL team? It's not their fault, of course. They're without their starting QB, top-2 RBs, #1 WR, and #1 TE. Still, its was painful to watch New Orleans lose their fourth straight game due to a rash of injuries to their best players. I don't understand why Taysom Hill isn't starting. Maybe the team didn't want to throw Hill into a nearly unwinnable situation. But Dallas looms next week, and the Saints' playoff hopes are fading. They have nothing to gain by keeping Trevor Siemian at the helm.
Bills -- Matt Breida looked decent in the first half against a tough run defense. Then Devin Singletary dominated RB touches most of the rest of the way, despite not running any better. Then Breida came through with a huge TD reception midway through the fourth quarter. There's always more happening behind the scenes, so it's not helpful to speculate. What we do know is that Zack Moss--who I've been pushing as overvalued since early October because of poor running (3.5 YPC)--was the odd man out and was declared inactive. That makes sense. What we don't know is how Singletary and Breida will shake out heading into Week 13.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy