We all have a small handful of games we're watching most closely tomorrow. Maybe our opponent has Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, and we know we have a chance if they just don't dominate. Or maybe we're glued to the Tennessee game because we're starting three Titans.
And by the way, if you're starting three Titans, let's chat. There have to be better options on waivers.
Anyway, let's walk through the biggest fantasy storyline I'm eyeballing for each Sunday team. Which players could pop, and which ones are headed toward a likely disaster.
Bengals -- Joe Burrow began the season with eight straight multi-touchdown games. He had only one in his last two games. As some of you might remember, I was down this summer on his preseason QB13 ADP, but am comfortable saying I was wrong. Despite his recent struggles, Burrow has the weapons to be a QB1 the rest of the season. He's one of my favorite undervalue Week 12 QBs.
Steelers -- Why should we question Najee Harris? He's an elite RB, right? I'll write about him more in tomorrow morning's PFN newsletter. He's one of the most fascinating running backs these days because his fantasy production doesn't align with his on-the-field output. Yes, the seven touchdowns and 4.9 receptions per game are very impressive. But he's averaged 3.5 YPC in six of 10 games, including four of his last five. He's down to four targets per game in his last four contests. As great as he's been for fantasy managers, the law of averages have a way of leveling things. If he doesn't score today, will he do enough to be an RB3? It's a serious question backed by concerning inefficiency on the ground.
Colts -- Most people who love football can't wait to see Indy face Tampa Bay. Two great teams that deserve better records. For Indy, I'm watching to see how Jonathan Taylor responds after last week's 5-TD day--not because of the touchdowns, but because of his 32 carries. The only other time he's had more than 26 (30 carries last year in Week 17), he followed it up with 3.7 YPC in the first round of the playoffs. More pointedly, as we've seen, massive workloads can have consequences. Against the Bucs' relatively tough run D, is it fair to wonder if he'll be a top 22-26 bust? Yes, I think it is fair.
Buccaneers -- It’s tough to bet against Leonard Fournette, who’s revived his career as Tampa Bay’s unquestioned lead back. His RB12 fantasy production is due, in part, to an impressive 44 receptions. The problem is he’s facing a Colts defense that’s leading the league in opposing rushing scores (only 4). And Fournette hasn't topped 47 rushing yards in any his last three contests. It all comes down to receptions (an incredible 14 in his last two games). If you believe he’ll sustain that, start him. I’m concerned that even a modest drop-off in targets would make him unstartable Sunday.
Dolphins -- Can we trust Myles Gaskin? I keep asking it. Some games he shocks me with terrific production. Other days he looks like what I expect him to look like. Can the newly acquired Phillip Lindsay cut into Gaskin's ceiling, or will this be business as usual?
Panthers -- We can assume Cam Newton, CMC, and D.J. Moore will be fine. Robby Anderson remains the question mark. Certainly more valuable with Cam at the helm. But we're still trying to gauge his reliability in what has been a steep drop-off from 2020 to 2021.
Patriots -- Damien Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson. Assuming they're both healthy, can we trust both, neither, or one of them (and if one, which one). My money remains, as always, on Stevenson. But we'll see.
Titans -- New England's defense is stepping up, and Tennessee's offense is falling apart. Before starting Dontrell Hilliard or D'Onta Foreman, consider what happened with Tony Jones on Thursday. Just because a journeyman RB did well last week, it doesn't mean they'll do well again. I'd steer clear of this backfield in Week 12.
Giants -- With Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney expected to miss this one, will Kenny Golladay finally begin earning his payday?
Eagles -- Is Miles Sanders back to being an RB2--someone we can somewhat safely start?
Jaguars -- Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones have nowhere to go but up, particularly with Jamal Agnew out. Shenault is the more interesting play. Both are fringe streamers in a plus matchup against Atlanta.
Falcons -- How much can we trust Kyle Pitts? Just like with T.J. Hockenson in Detroit, it's hard to bench him, because you know the offense runs partially through him. But what a challenging situation for fantasy managers who yearn for a proven ceiling we might not see again this year.
Texans -- Is anyone starting Rex Burkhead? I gotta say, if he's not getting receptions (more David Johnson's job), then what's the realistic expectation: 5-6 fantasy points? If he's lucky?
Jets -- The same goes for Tevin Coleman. I'm betting the more versatile Ty Johnson notches more points. Coleman's best days are well behind him. Projecting 11 carries for 38 yards and one reception.
Broncos -- There are so many “what-ifs” to consider at the TE position, particularly when we move beyond the elite and near-elite tiers, when targets grow more scarce. The Broncos are relatively loaded on offense with two high-performing running backs, three high-functioning wideouts, and two highly capable tight ends. Oh, and one QB2 who’s not expected (or not able) to consistently feed most of his weapons. The ascending Albert Okwuegbunam (10 targets in his last three games) is one of many factors capping Noah Fant’s ceiling. He’s a longshot to produce TE1 numbers today--unless I completely misunderstand Fant's value to this team.
Chargers -- Is Mike Williams back to being the Mike Williams we saw earlier this season? Week 11 offered hope. Week 12 will confirm whether this hope is justified.
Packers -- Can we trust Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Hard to argue with what he did last weekend. Also hard to argue that he's a WR3+. Let's see if he can again be a top-2 Packer receiver.
Rams -- Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson? Who would you rather start today? This question might come up repeatedly the rest of the season.
49ers -- If Elijah Mitchell plays, is he the clear lead back? Jeff Wilson and Trey Sermon didn't make the case last week to replace him (though I thought Wilson would). Maybe I was wrong to assume Mitchell couldn't hold onto the job. But if he's forced to sit again, and if Wilson (or Sermon) crushes it, then Week 13 will be interesting.
Vikings -- In four straight games from mid-September to late October, Dalvin Cook had amassed only six receptions. I remarked at the time that this was his biggest impediment to RB1 production. He has nine catches in his last three games. Those 2-4 extra points per week add up.
Ravens -- Devonta Freeman has one touchdown in four of his last five games. That and receptions are keeping him relevant. Reiterating what I mentioned earlier, these things have a way of leveling out. Freeman is a huge sell-high RB.
Browns -- Kareem Hunt is poised to return. What will it mean to a backfield that defenses can focus on. Earlier this year, Cleveland had a healthy Baker Mayfield and an array of seemingly capable receivers. Hunt and Nick Chubb ran over their opponents. Now that the offense is as one-dimensional as ever, can they continue to run over anyone they want, including Baltimore on the road?
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
And by the way, if you're starting three Titans, let's chat. There have to be better options on waivers.
Anyway, let's walk through the biggest fantasy storyline I'm eyeballing for each Sunday team. Which players could pop, and which ones are headed toward a likely disaster.
Bengals -- Joe Burrow began the season with eight straight multi-touchdown games. He had only one in his last two games. As some of you might remember, I was down this summer on his preseason QB13 ADP, but am comfortable saying I was wrong. Despite his recent struggles, Burrow has the weapons to be a QB1 the rest of the season. He's one of my favorite undervalue Week 12 QBs.
Steelers -- Why should we question Najee Harris? He's an elite RB, right? I'll write about him more in tomorrow morning's PFN newsletter. He's one of the most fascinating running backs these days because his fantasy production doesn't align with his on-the-field output. Yes, the seven touchdowns and 4.9 receptions per game are very impressive. But he's averaged 3.5 YPC in six of 10 games, including four of his last five. He's down to four targets per game in his last four contests. As great as he's been for fantasy managers, the law of averages have a way of leveling things. If he doesn't score today, will he do enough to be an RB3? It's a serious question backed by concerning inefficiency on the ground.
Colts -- Most people who love football can't wait to see Indy face Tampa Bay. Two great teams that deserve better records. For Indy, I'm watching to see how Jonathan Taylor responds after last week's 5-TD day--not because of the touchdowns, but because of his 32 carries. The only other time he's had more than 26 (30 carries last year in Week 17), he followed it up with 3.7 YPC in the first round of the playoffs. More pointedly, as we've seen, massive workloads can have consequences. Against the Bucs' relatively tough run D, is it fair to wonder if he'll be a top 22-26 bust? Yes, I think it is fair.
Buccaneers -- It’s tough to bet against Leonard Fournette, who’s revived his career as Tampa Bay’s unquestioned lead back. His RB12 fantasy production is due, in part, to an impressive 44 receptions. The problem is he’s facing a Colts defense that’s leading the league in opposing rushing scores (only 4). And Fournette hasn't topped 47 rushing yards in any his last three contests. It all comes down to receptions (an incredible 14 in his last two games). If you believe he’ll sustain that, start him. I’m concerned that even a modest drop-off in targets would make him unstartable Sunday.
Dolphins -- Can we trust Myles Gaskin? I keep asking it. Some games he shocks me with terrific production. Other days he looks like what I expect him to look like. Can the newly acquired Phillip Lindsay cut into Gaskin's ceiling, or will this be business as usual?
Panthers -- We can assume Cam Newton, CMC, and D.J. Moore will be fine. Robby Anderson remains the question mark. Certainly more valuable with Cam at the helm. But we're still trying to gauge his reliability in what has been a steep drop-off from 2020 to 2021.
Patriots -- Damien Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson. Assuming they're both healthy, can we trust both, neither, or one of them (and if one, which one). My money remains, as always, on Stevenson. But we'll see.
Titans -- New England's defense is stepping up, and Tennessee's offense is falling apart. Before starting Dontrell Hilliard or D'Onta Foreman, consider what happened with Tony Jones on Thursday. Just because a journeyman RB did well last week, it doesn't mean they'll do well again. I'd steer clear of this backfield in Week 12.
Giants -- With Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney expected to miss this one, will Kenny Golladay finally begin earning his payday?
Eagles -- Is Miles Sanders back to being an RB2--someone we can somewhat safely start?
Jaguars -- Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones have nowhere to go but up, particularly with Jamal Agnew out. Shenault is the more interesting play. Both are fringe streamers in a plus matchup against Atlanta.
Falcons -- How much can we trust Kyle Pitts? Just like with T.J. Hockenson in Detroit, it's hard to bench him, because you know the offense runs partially through him. But what a challenging situation for fantasy managers who yearn for a proven ceiling we might not see again this year.
Texans -- Is anyone starting Rex Burkhead? I gotta say, if he's not getting receptions (more David Johnson's job), then what's the realistic expectation: 5-6 fantasy points? If he's lucky?
Jets -- The same goes for Tevin Coleman. I'm betting the more versatile Ty Johnson notches more points. Coleman's best days are well behind him. Projecting 11 carries for 38 yards and one reception.
Broncos -- There are so many “what-ifs” to consider at the TE position, particularly when we move beyond the elite and near-elite tiers, when targets grow more scarce. The Broncos are relatively loaded on offense with two high-performing running backs, three high-functioning wideouts, and two highly capable tight ends. Oh, and one QB2 who’s not expected (or not able) to consistently feed most of his weapons. The ascending Albert Okwuegbunam (10 targets in his last three games) is one of many factors capping Noah Fant’s ceiling. He’s a longshot to produce TE1 numbers today--unless I completely misunderstand Fant's value to this team.
Chargers -- Is Mike Williams back to being the Mike Williams we saw earlier this season? Week 11 offered hope. Week 12 will confirm whether this hope is justified.
Packers -- Can we trust Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Hard to argue with what he did last weekend. Also hard to argue that he's a WR3+. Let's see if he can again be a top-2 Packer receiver.
Rams -- Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson? Who would you rather start today? This question might come up repeatedly the rest of the season.
49ers -- If Elijah Mitchell plays, is he the clear lead back? Jeff Wilson and Trey Sermon didn't make the case last week to replace him (though I thought Wilson would). Maybe I was wrong to assume Mitchell couldn't hold onto the job. But if he's forced to sit again, and if Wilson (or Sermon) crushes it, then Week 13 will be interesting.
Vikings -- In four straight games from mid-September to late October, Dalvin Cook had amassed only six receptions. I remarked at the time that this was his biggest impediment to RB1 production. He has nine catches in his last three games. Those 2-4 extra points per week add up.
Ravens -- Devonta Freeman has one touchdown in four of his last five games. That and receptions are keeping him relevant. Reiterating what I mentioned earlier, these things have a way of leveling out. Freeman is a huge sell-high RB.
Browns -- Kareem Hunt is poised to return. What will it mean to a backfield that defenses can focus on. Earlier this year, Cleveland had a healthy Baker Mayfield and an array of seemingly capable receivers. Hunt and Nick Chubb ran over their opponents. Now that the offense is as one-dimensional as ever, can they continue to run over anyone they want, including Baltimore on the road?
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy