"I'm assembling the best team I can." That was the mantra I shared on this page yesterday morning. This is fantasy football in a nutshell. We all share this goal. We're all trying to be as good as we can be, fighting against injuries and bye weeks and inexplicable slumps to put together a high-floor, high-ceiling lineup that--if things break right--can get us the W.
Yesterday morning I picked up Jimmy G. and Kendrick Bourne. A few days ago I added Evan McPherson. Jimmy was a complete bust. But Bourne more than made up for it, scoring the fourth most WR fantasy points of the week. McPherson was the third best kicker. It doesn't always work out. But I've found if we target good offenses facing weak defenses, good things are more likely to happen. Tennessee is terrific against the run and terrible against the pass. Pittsburgh got back some of their injured defenders, but they were still shorthanded and haven't been that great regardless.
Playing the odds doesn't always work out. But we should play the best odds we can, and leave the rest to what happens on the field.
Now, here are the biggest fantasy storylines impacting each Sunday team:
Bengals -- Tee Higgins finally had a big day, and it's been more than a month since Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 50 yards. Maybe due to defensive adjustments? Whatever it is, don't give up on Chase; I still view him as a must-start; things like this usually level out.
Steelers -- In yesterday morning's PFN newsletter, my featured player was Najee Harris. I expressed concern about metrics that went against his seemingly indomitable fantasy prowess. What I saw yesterday reinforces my conclusion that he's a risky RB1 going forward.
Colts –- I was curious how Jonathan Taylor would respond after a career-high 33 carries in Week 11. Apparently, he was unfazed. Shouldn't have even wondered, I guess.
Buccaneers -- Ronald Jones earned 7+ carries for the third time in four games, and he scored for the second straight game. Yes, Leonard Fournette was the hero. The more interesting angle, though, is whether Jones will be a locked-in RB3 next week against the Falcons, in a game that should see Jones piling up touches assuming the Bucs win comfortably.
Dolphins -- Mike Gesicki has 10 fantasy points or less in five straight games. Can we still trust him as a TE1?
Panthers -- Cam Newton was benched and Christian McCaffrey got hurt. If P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard are running the show after the Week 13 bye, can fantasy managers trust anyone on this team?
Patriots -- Damien Harris got the touchdown, but Rhamondre Stevenson ran better.
Titans –- Is Dontrell Hilliard for real? I did not see this coming. Total blind spot, and knowing what I know now, I'd still have trouble recommending him.
Giants –- Is Kenny Golladay droppable? I'll ask PFN fantasy analyst Tommy Garrett this question on today's podcast. (Don't tell him; it's a surprise.) But really, how could this have happened? Of course, Daniel Jones is a big reason. But we saw Sterling Shepard light it up earlier this season. It's hard to believe Golladay might not find his groove this year.
Eagles -- Boston Scott out-touched Miles Sanders, fumbled, but also scored. We have to assume Sanders is still the 1A RB. But the fact that it's only an assumption shows how volatile this backfield is.
Jaguars –- OK, I'm done getting pumped up about Laviska Shenault. Trevor Lawrence targeted him early, and I thought, "OK, here we go. The Jags are feeding their best receiver." And when Dan Arnold got hurt, it seemed like a slam dunk. But it looks like it won't happen this year.
Falcons –- Under what circumstances should managers sit Kyle Pitts? If you have a backup top-8 TE? A backup top-12 TE? Like Mike Gesicki, Pitts hasn't done much in more than a month. Unlike Gesicki, it's hard to imagine him breakinng through when secondaries know he's Atlanta's only true receiving threat.
Texans –- Is there any reason to take David Johnson seriously? Rex Burkhead did a little more than I expected, because I was thinking 5-7 points (he got 8.4). But Johnson was right behind with 7.5. In an anemic passing attack, we have to take notices when two running backs are putting up mid-to-low RB3 numbers.
Jets –- Austin Walter outperformed Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. Admittedly, I had to look up who Walter was during the game. How this backfield shakes out without Michael Carter will be fascinating on the field, and a little less fascinating in fantasy.
Broncos –- Can we finally say that Javonte Williams will outperform Melvin Gordon down the stretch? While Gordon has enjoyed a resurgence this season, it's not hard to see how an ascending Williams could eventually overtake him.
Chargers – Yesterday was only the second time this season Justin Herbert has scored between 15 and 30 fantasy points. It's one of those bizarre stats that reminds us how incredible he's been some weeks, and how off he's looked other weeks. His late touchdown gave managers a solid showing, yet his struggles with turnovers can't be ignored. He needs someone besides Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen to step up; Mike Williams remains an enigma.
Packers –- I really thought if Aaron Jones was activated right before the team's bye, it meant he'd get his normal lead-back touches. Didn't work out that way. Good news for me, since I was forced to start Dillon on my injury-depleted team. But still confusing, and we have to wonder if my preseason warning (that Dillon would work his way into a timeshare with Jones) will be cemented during the fantasy playoffs.
Rams –- I had more faith in Van Jefferson than Odell Beckham for the rest of the season, and I didn't trust either this weekend. Not sure what to make of those predictions, except that I completely misjudged them against Green Bay. Matthew Stafford's health remains an issue. But at least for one more day, the Rams' offense looked relatively functional.
49ers -– Deebo Samuel exited with a groin injury. If he sits next week, Brandon Aiyuk would be a must-start. Also, I was 100% wrong about Elijah Mitchell. Believed last week Jeff Wilson would come up big (he didn't) and earn a solid share of backfield work going forward. So, yeah, completely wrong. Hats off to those of you who believed in Mitchell.
Vikings -– Dalvin Cook was carted off with a shoulder injury. We know what Alexander Mattison can do. If Cook is sidelined, could this create a small opening for fourth-round rookie Kene Nwangwu?
Ravens –- I've kept saying Devonta Freeman is little more than a TD-dependent RB. And nearly every week, he proves me wrong by scoring. But last night we saw the limitations of a post-prime Freeman. Yes, if the offense is clicking, and when facing a weak defense, he could have some value. But I'm not banking him as a consistently startable RB in December and January.
Browns – Jarvis Landry finally broke through, only hours after I told a lot of people, "Why would we trust Landry after everything we've seen?" Or something like that. Anyway, pretty shocking to see the Browns get shut down on the ground, and for Landry to produce throw-back numbers through the air. I'm not buying it. But I was wrong last night.
Havw a great day, and back this evening for the Monday Night Football preview and predictions.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Yesterday morning I picked up Jimmy G. and Kendrick Bourne. A few days ago I added Evan McPherson. Jimmy was a complete bust. But Bourne more than made up for it, scoring the fourth most WR fantasy points of the week. McPherson was the third best kicker. It doesn't always work out. But I've found if we target good offenses facing weak defenses, good things are more likely to happen. Tennessee is terrific against the run and terrible against the pass. Pittsburgh got back some of their injured defenders, but they were still shorthanded and haven't been that great regardless.
Playing the odds doesn't always work out. But we should play the best odds we can, and leave the rest to what happens on the field.
Now, here are the biggest fantasy storylines impacting each Sunday team:
Bengals -- Tee Higgins finally had a big day, and it's been more than a month since Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 50 yards. Maybe due to defensive adjustments? Whatever it is, don't give up on Chase; I still view him as a must-start; things like this usually level out.
Steelers -- In yesterday morning's PFN newsletter, my featured player was Najee Harris. I expressed concern about metrics that went against his seemingly indomitable fantasy prowess. What I saw yesterday reinforces my conclusion that he's a risky RB1 going forward.
Colts –- I was curious how Jonathan Taylor would respond after a career-high 33 carries in Week 11. Apparently, he was unfazed. Shouldn't have even wondered, I guess.
Buccaneers -- Ronald Jones earned 7+ carries for the third time in four games, and he scored for the second straight game. Yes, Leonard Fournette was the hero. The more interesting angle, though, is whether Jones will be a locked-in RB3 next week against the Falcons, in a game that should see Jones piling up touches assuming the Bucs win comfortably.
Dolphins -- Mike Gesicki has 10 fantasy points or less in five straight games. Can we still trust him as a TE1?
Panthers -- Cam Newton was benched and Christian McCaffrey got hurt. If P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard are running the show after the Week 13 bye, can fantasy managers trust anyone on this team?
Patriots -- Damien Harris got the touchdown, but Rhamondre Stevenson ran better.
Titans –- Is Dontrell Hilliard for real? I did not see this coming. Total blind spot, and knowing what I know now, I'd still have trouble recommending him.
Giants –- Is Kenny Golladay droppable? I'll ask PFN fantasy analyst Tommy Garrett this question on today's podcast. (Don't tell him; it's a surprise.) But really, how could this have happened? Of course, Daniel Jones is a big reason. But we saw Sterling Shepard light it up earlier this season. It's hard to believe Golladay might not find his groove this year.
Eagles -- Boston Scott out-touched Miles Sanders, fumbled, but also scored. We have to assume Sanders is still the 1A RB. But the fact that it's only an assumption shows how volatile this backfield is.
Jaguars –- OK, I'm done getting pumped up about Laviska Shenault. Trevor Lawrence targeted him early, and I thought, "OK, here we go. The Jags are feeding their best receiver." And when Dan Arnold got hurt, it seemed like a slam dunk. But it looks like it won't happen this year.
Falcons –- Under what circumstances should managers sit Kyle Pitts? If you have a backup top-8 TE? A backup top-12 TE? Like Mike Gesicki, Pitts hasn't done much in more than a month. Unlike Gesicki, it's hard to imagine him breakinng through when secondaries know he's Atlanta's only true receiving threat.
Texans –- Is there any reason to take David Johnson seriously? Rex Burkhead did a little more than I expected, because I was thinking 5-7 points (he got 8.4). But Johnson was right behind with 7.5. In an anemic passing attack, we have to take notices when two running backs are putting up mid-to-low RB3 numbers.
Jets –- Austin Walter outperformed Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. Admittedly, I had to look up who Walter was during the game. How this backfield shakes out without Michael Carter will be fascinating on the field, and a little less fascinating in fantasy.
Broncos –- Can we finally say that Javonte Williams will outperform Melvin Gordon down the stretch? While Gordon has enjoyed a resurgence this season, it's not hard to see how an ascending Williams could eventually overtake him.
Chargers – Yesterday was only the second time this season Justin Herbert has scored between 15 and 30 fantasy points. It's one of those bizarre stats that reminds us how incredible he's been some weeks, and how off he's looked other weeks. His late touchdown gave managers a solid showing, yet his struggles with turnovers can't be ignored. He needs someone besides Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen to step up; Mike Williams remains an enigma.
Packers –- I really thought if Aaron Jones was activated right before the team's bye, it meant he'd get his normal lead-back touches. Didn't work out that way. Good news for me, since I was forced to start Dillon on my injury-depleted team. But still confusing, and we have to wonder if my preseason warning (that Dillon would work his way into a timeshare with Jones) will be cemented during the fantasy playoffs.
Rams –- I had more faith in Van Jefferson than Odell Beckham for the rest of the season, and I didn't trust either this weekend. Not sure what to make of those predictions, except that I completely misjudged them against Green Bay. Matthew Stafford's health remains an issue. But at least for one more day, the Rams' offense looked relatively functional.
49ers -– Deebo Samuel exited with a groin injury. If he sits next week, Brandon Aiyuk would be a must-start. Also, I was 100% wrong about Elijah Mitchell. Believed last week Jeff Wilson would come up big (he didn't) and earn a solid share of backfield work going forward. So, yeah, completely wrong. Hats off to those of you who believed in Mitchell.
Vikings -– Dalvin Cook was carted off with a shoulder injury. We know what Alexander Mattison can do. If Cook is sidelined, could this create a small opening for fourth-round rookie Kene Nwangwu?
Ravens –- I've kept saying Devonta Freeman is little more than a TD-dependent RB. And nearly every week, he proves me wrong by scoring. But last night we saw the limitations of a post-prime Freeman. Yes, if the offense is clicking, and when facing a weak defense, he could have some value. But I'm not banking him as a consistently startable RB in December and January.
Browns – Jarvis Landry finally broke through, only hours after I told a lot of people, "Why would we trust Landry after everything we've seen?" Or something like that. Anyway, pretty shocking to see the Browns get shut down on the ground, and for Landry to produce throw-back numbers through the air. I'm not buying it. But I was wrong last night.
Havw a great day, and back this evening for the Monday Night Football preview and predictions.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy