Thursday Night Football features two team that started 1-3. Atlanta is now somehow clinging to postseason contention at 4-5 despite scoring the third fewest points in the NFC and yielding the second most points in the league. Two blowout losses to begin the season and one last week have bookended six straight games decided by a touchdown or less. That they're 4-2 in these close games is, on the one hand, remarkable. On the other hand, their only marquee win was an eked-out victory over the Trevor Siemian-led Saints, thanks to late-game heroics by Cordarrelle Patterson.
Speaking of Patterson, I still can't believe what he's done. Every year there are incredible redemption stories in sports. His is special. For context, before getting hurt, Derrick Henry was on pace for 504 touches this season. Patterson has 499 touches in his 9-year NFL career. The Falcons have leaned on him more than any of his previous four teams have, and it's paid off with personal single-season highs in rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
But he's a game-time decision as of early Thursday morning. So fantasy-wise, managers have a tough decision to make. If he's active, do you start the #9 fantasy RB? Or do you play it safe in the first game of the week, especially against a Patriots defense that has clamped down in three of their last four games? I can't justify benching Patterson if he plays. He's played on 46% of Atlanta's offensive snaps, which is on par with other split-time backs (Denver's Javonte Williams is also at 46%, for example). He's a situational weapon who doesn't need more than 6-8 targets and a handful of carries to be an RB3+.
If he sits, Wayne Gallman and Mike Davis might cancel each other out, which would be bad enough if this weren't the Falcons. If you're desperately hoping one of them breaks through minus Patterson, you're hoping for the usual: 4+ receptions and/or a cheap score. It's entirely possible neither guy collects more than 40 rushing yards, even against the Patriots' hit-or-miss run defense. Between the two, although there are rumblings that Davis would be the lead back if Patterson is out, I'd bet on the slightly higher-ceiling Gallman.
Through the air, take your pick with a collection of wideouts who realistically also won't exceed 50 yards. Kyle Pitts is the only must-start, though that's not saying much at a tight end position where 10 points gets you in the TE1 club. Of course, Pitts hasn't exceeded 10 fantasy points in any of his last three games. Assuming you start him, you have to be okay with an 8-10 point floor. Everyone else has a lower floor. And Matt Ryan is probably staring at a 240-1-1 day with a lost fumble. His outlook hinges, in my opinion, on whether he runs one in. Ryan has seven rushing scores since 2018 and has eight career one-yard rushing TDs.
For New England, four weeks ago I packaged their DST and Mike Davis for Christian Kirk, and then six days later flipped Kirk for Michael Carter. I have to say, all three of us involved in those trades filled a pressing need. The Patriots DST has been terrific the past four games: 55 combined fantasy points. Despite being on the road, especially if Patterson is sidelined, New England should force enough turnovers and garner enough sacks to be a DST1. Also keep in mind their D is #2 in the NFL in opposing QB rating (75.7).
Mac Jones should outperform Ryan, unless it's one of those fluky situations where the running game gets every score. I'm expecting 27+ points for the Patriots. Hunter Henry remains a near-automatic start based on higher-than-normal TD potential, while Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are decent WR3/4 streamers. As always with these guys, it really comes down to touchdowns. The only high-volume plays are with New England's backfield.
And that's where things get most interesting. You all know my views on Rhamondre Stevenson as the Pats' most versatile and talented RB. Maybe that's a controversial statement, since Damien Harris has been the unquestioned starter. But Harris is almost non-existant in the passing game (16 catches in 22 career outings) and is averaging a barely pedestrian 4.1 YPC. He's also lost two fumbles. Returning from the concussion protocol shouldn't concern people. But losing touches to Stevenson should. After a slow start, the rookie has caught fire. If I had to pick one to start tonight and roster the rest of the season, I'd go with the higher-upside Stevenson, crazy as that might sound.
As for predictions, let's say 6-3 Falcons. No, no. Just making sure you're still reading. I'm going 27-17 Patriots. They haven't lost to Atlanta since 1998 (pre-Belichick). New England will win their fifth straight to more firmly control their postseason destiny (although two upcoming games against the Bills will probably decide things). And with future brutal contests against the Bucs and Bills, the 4-6 Falcons will be on the verge of another lost season.
Looking forward to reading your predictions. The person with the closest score gets a massive shout-out tomorrow on this blog and outside on my way to get the mail.
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Speaking of Patterson, I still can't believe what he's done. Every year there are incredible redemption stories in sports. His is special. For context, before getting hurt, Derrick Henry was on pace for 504 touches this season. Patterson has 499 touches in his 9-year NFL career. The Falcons have leaned on him more than any of his previous four teams have, and it's paid off with personal single-season highs in rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
But he's a game-time decision as of early Thursday morning. So fantasy-wise, managers have a tough decision to make. If he's active, do you start the #9 fantasy RB? Or do you play it safe in the first game of the week, especially against a Patriots defense that has clamped down in three of their last four games? I can't justify benching Patterson if he plays. He's played on 46% of Atlanta's offensive snaps, which is on par with other split-time backs (Denver's Javonte Williams is also at 46%, for example). He's a situational weapon who doesn't need more than 6-8 targets and a handful of carries to be an RB3+.
If he sits, Wayne Gallman and Mike Davis might cancel each other out, which would be bad enough if this weren't the Falcons. If you're desperately hoping one of them breaks through minus Patterson, you're hoping for the usual: 4+ receptions and/or a cheap score. It's entirely possible neither guy collects more than 40 rushing yards, even against the Patriots' hit-or-miss run defense. Between the two, although there are rumblings that Davis would be the lead back if Patterson is out, I'd bet on the slightly higher-ceiling Gallman.
Through the air, take your pick with a collection of wideouts who realistically also won't exceed 50 yards. Kyle Pitts is the only must-start, though that's not saying much at a tight end position where 10 points gets you in the TE1 club. Of course, Pitts hasn't exceeded 10 fantasy points in any of his last three games. Assuming you start him, you have to be okay with an 8-10 point floor. Everyone else has a lower floor. And Matt Ryan is probably staring at a 240-1-1 day with a lost fumble. His outlook hinges, in my opinion, on whether he runs one in. Ryan has seven rushing scores since 2018 and has eight career one-yard rushing TDs.
For New England, four weeks ago I packaged their DST and Mike Davis for Christian Kirk, and then six days later flipped Kirk for Michael Carter. I have to say, all three of us involved in those trades filled a pressing need. The Patriots DST has been terrific the past four games: 55 combined fantasy points. Despite being on the road, especially if Patterson is sidelined, New England should force enough turnovers and garner enough sacks to be a DST1. Also keep in mind their D is #2 in the NFL in opposing QB rating (75.7).
Mac Jones should outperform Ryan, unless it's one of those fluky situations where the running game gets every score. I'm expecting 27+ points for the Patriots. Hunter Henry remains a near-automatic start based on higher-than-normal TD potential, while Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are decent WR3/4 streamers. As always with these guys, it really comes down to touchdowns. The only high-volume plays are with New England's backfield.
And that's where things get most interesting. You all know my views on Rhamondre Stevenson as the Pats' most versatile and talented RB. Maybe that's a controversial statement, since Damien Harris has been the unquestioned starter. But Harris is almost non-existant in the passing game (16 catches in 22 career outings) and is averaging a barely pedestrian 4.1 YPC. He's also lost two fumbles. Returning from the concussion protocol shouldn't concern people. But losing touches to Stevenson should. After a slow start, the rookie has caught fire. If I had to pick one to start tonight and roster the rest of the season, I'd go with the higher-upside Stevenson, crazy as that might sound.
As for predictions, let's say 6-3 Falcons. No, no. Just making sure you're still reading. I'm going 27-17 Patriots. They haven't lost to Atlanta since 1998 (pre-Belichick). New England will win their fifth straight to more firmly control their postseason destiny (although two upcoming games against the Bills will probably decide things). And with future brutal contests against the Bucs and Bills, the 4-6 Falcons will be on the verge of another lost season.
Looking forward to reading your predictions. The person with the closest score gets a massive shout-out tomorrow on this blog and outside on my way to get the mail.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy