Last season the Ravens reeled off five straight wins to end the regular season and eke into the playoffs at 11-5. The 10-6 Dolphins barely missed the cut.
Seasons are sometimes decided by one game. In Baltimore's and Miami's case in 2020, it might have come down to one play. Lamar Jackson had been knocked out of the game. Down 35-34 with two minutes left, backup QB Trace McSorley faced a 4th-and-5 at Cleveland's 44. Had they failed to get a first down, and if everything else played out as it did, the Ravens would have been 10-6, and the Dolphins would have reached the postseason.
Instead, Lamar Jackson miraculously returned, and then miraculously threw a 44-yard TD pass to Marquise Brown to take the lead. The Ravens went on to win 47-42.
Less than a year later, the Ravens are the second-best AFC team at 6-2; the Dolphins are second-worst at 2-7. Two franchises whose fortunes could have gone either way last season. This season, their differences couldn't be more stark.
Tonight's game realistically could go in one of two directions. Sounds like a hedge, and maybe it is. Miami has the NFL's third-least-efficient rushing attack (3.5 yards per carry) and might have to roll again with Jacoby Brissett (Tua Tagovailoa remains questionable). Fortunately, Baltimore's defense has not delivered. So the Dolphins could remain relevant if Myles Gaskin keeps the chains moving on the ground (and through the air), and if Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki keep elevating their games. Waddle and Gesicki have both have 71% catch rates, which especially remarkable at the wideout position. They are the heroes of what has become a very top-heavy passing attack.
I view Waddle and Gesicki as must-starts in fantasy, regardless of who's quarterbacking. Gaskin is a reception- and TD-dependent RB3/4. If he doesn't get going early, I can see Miami abandoning the run to keep pace with Baltimore presumably efficient offense. If he does get going, then it's easy to see how the Dolphins could lead in time-of-possession and force the Ravens to do more with fewer offensive drives.
And that's why I'm hedging. Nothing I've seen from Gaskin this year suggests he'll step up his game. In his last six contests he's dominated through the air with 25 receptions. But he's gained only 174 yards on the ground on 59 attempts (2.9 YPC). So everything might come down to whether he can collect another 5+ catches, secure decent streaming numbers, and help keep the ball in Miami's hands.
For Baltimore, the backfield is a small question mark. We can assume Devonta Freeman and/or Le'Veon Bell will have a good fantasy day. While the Dolphins aren't awful against the run (4.3 YPC), all Freeman and Bell need are scoring opportunities, and they should see some against a team giving up the league's fourth most points. I remain shocked that Bell hasn't gotten more involved in the passing game, considering how effective he was as a pass-catcher for years in Pittsburgh, and even for the Jets (66 catches in 2019).
As for receivers, Sammy Watkins is expected to return, which could impact rookie Rashod Bateman. We've seen enough from Watkins over the years to know his floor is painfully low. Bateman remains the better play; I view him as a solid streamer with some nice TD upside. Marquise Brown is a no-brainer, as is Lamar Jackson (if that weren't obvious already).
Finally, Mark Andrews. What's the issue? After all, he's the #2 fantasy TE behind the immortal Travis Kelce. But Andrews has been a top-10 TE only three times in eight games. He's finished 11th to 18th in four other contests and 33rd in another. This is where "elite" scoring doesn't always tell the whole story. Of course, there's a lot to like about Andrews tonight. He's a perennial scoring threat inside the red zone, and Baltimore should be in the red zone several times. But he also serves as a reminder that very few TEs are weekly must-starts.
I'll pick the Ravens 37-19. Leave your prediction below, and the winner will be featured in a magazine cover story *or* mentioned on this blog.
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Seasons are sometimes decided by one game. In Baltimore's and Miami's case in 2020, it might have come down to one play. Lamar Jackson had been knocked out of the game. Down 35-34 with two minutes left, backup QB Trace McSorley faced a 4th-and-5 at Cleveland's 44. Had they failed to get a first down, and if everything else played out as it did, the Ravens would have been 10-6, and the Dolphins would have reached the postseason.
Instead, Lamar Jackson miraculously returned, and then miraculously threw a 44-yard TD pass to Marquise Brown to take the lead. The Ravens went on to win 47-42.
Less than a year later, the Ravens are the second-best AFC team at 6-2; the Dolphins are second-worst at 2-7. Two franchises whose fortunes could have gone either way last season. This season, their differences couldn't be more stark.
Tonight's game realistically could go in one of two directions. Sounds like a hedge, and maybe it is. Miami has the NFL's third-least-efficient rushing attack (3.5 yards per carry) and might have to roll again with Jacoby Brissett (Tua Tagovailoa remains questionable). Fortunately, Baltimore's defense has not delivered. So the Dolphins could remain relevant if Myles Gaskin keeps the chains moving on the ground (and through the air), and if Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki keep elevating their games. Waddle and Gesicki have both have 71% catch rates, which especially remarkable at the wideout position. They are the heroes of what has become a very top-heavy passing attack.
I view Waddle and Gesicki as must-starts in fantasy, regardless of who's quarterbacking. Gaskin is a reception- and TD-dependent RB3/4. If he doesn't get going early, I can see Miami abandoning the run to keep pace with Baltimore presumably efficient offense. If he does get going, then it's easy to see how the Dolphins could lead in time-of-possession and force the Ravens to do more with fewer offensive drives.
And that's why I'm hedging. Nothing I've seen from Gaskin this year suggests he'll step up his game. In his last six contests he's dominated through the air with 25 receptions. But he's gained only 174 yards on the ground on 59 attempts (2.9 YPC). So everything might come down to whether he can collect another 5+ catches, secure decent streaming numbers, and help keep the ball in Miami's hands.
For Baltimore, the backfield is a small question mark. We can assume Devonta Freeman and/or Le'Veon Bell will have a good fantasy day. While the Dolphins aren't awful against the run (4.3 YPC), all Freeman and Bell need are scoring opportunities, and they should see some against a team giving up the league's fourth most points. I remain shocked that Bell hasn't gotten more involved in the passing game, considering how effective he was as a pass-catcher for years in Pittsburgh, and even for the Jets (66 catches in 2019).
As for receivers, Sammy Watkins is expected to return, which could impact rookie Rashod Bateman. We've seen enough from Watkins over the years to know his floor is painfully low. Bateman remains the better play; I view him as a solid streamer with some nice TD upside. Marquise Brown is a no-brainer, as is Lamar Jackson (if that weren't obvious already).
Finally, Mark Andrews. What's the issue? After all, he's the #2 fantasy TE behind the immortal Travis Kelce. But Andrews has been a top-10 TE only three times in eight games. He's finished 11th to 18th in four other contests and 33rd in another. This is where "elite" scoring doesn't always tell the whole story. Of course, there's a lot to like about Andrews tonight. He's a perennial scoring threat inside the red zone, and Baltimore should be in the red zone several times. But he also serves as a reminder that very few TEs are weekly must-starts.
I'll pick the Ravens 37-19. Leave your prediction below, and the winner will be featured in a magazine cover story *or* mentioned on this blog.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy